J.R. Smith is Massive, but the Nuggets' Defense Runs off the Rails: Bulls 135 Nuggets 121

The Chicago Bulls are 20th in the NBA in actual points scored per game, and they are even worse, 26th, in offensive efficiency, which is where you take points and adjust for pace, which is the number of possessions a team averages per game. But the Nuggets could not even begin to slow down the Bulls’ scoring in this game, and since J.R. Smith played the game of his career, what resulted was a full scale ABA type of game, but played with NBA rules and in an NBA arena. The final score of the spectacle, which was too lopsided in favor of offense for even fans of offensive basketball to enjoy, except possibly Bulls fans, was Chicago 135, Denver 121. That was about the last result you would have expected following the Nuggets playing as close to perfect as they can and defeating the Celtics 3 nights earlier. The roller coaster practically ran off the tracks on this downhill.

For Nuggets fans, it was hard to say what was worse, losing to a lottery team that had just been partly blown up following a major trade, or losing a game which was played as if it was the ABA instead of the NBA. It’s tough when your team plays as if it is in another League in another time. Even if you win that way it’s disturbing.

So just when you thought that the victory over the mighty Celtics signaled that the Nuggets were going to avoid a titanic struggle for the rest of the season with the Warriors for the last playoff slot in the West, the Nuggets fell right back into that disturbing if not disgusting spectacle of having to battle the “no identity crises here, we are all offense and proud of it” Warriors for the last spot, with the loser becoming one of the all-time chump teams in the history of the NBA.

The Bulls were 56/98 in field goals, for 57.1%, while the Nuggets were 43/89, or 48.3%. But the Bulls literally doubled up the Nuggets on assists, 34-17, as the Nuggets reverted to an almost unbelievable number of isolation plays, with of course Smith, Allen Iverson, and Carmelo Anthony making most of them. But Iverson, who knows an offensive basketball disaster in the making when he sees one, took over for Anthony Carter completely, and made almost as many assists as he did shot attempts, 9 versus 10. After this game you would have to be blind not realize that he is the real point guard on this team, whether you like it or not, whether George Karl likes it or not, whether it is good enough for the Nuggets or not, and whether the Answer officially starts at PG or not.

So it was a truly bizarre game, even for the unstructured and now wildly inconsistent Nuggets. The spectacle of J.R. Smith having a career night while Martin did very little, and while Kleiza and Carter did almost nothing, was very strange even by Nuggets standards. Much more than most losses, this loss left a sinking feeling in Nuggets fans that, as my favorite football radio announcer used to say, when his team was losing and looking out of control in the process, “the wheels have come off, now.” That was the signal to the listeners to stop hoping that the team could possibly win the game, no matter how many aggressive passing plays with a good quarterback it tried. In the case of the Nuggets, the wheels were off, so no matter how many J.R. Smith 3-point shots were made, and no matter how many times the Nuggets cut the deficit to single digits, the Nuggets could not possibly stop a whole herd of Bulls from running off another series of consecutive scores. Shockingly, the Bulls had 7 players scoring in double digits, to just Smith, Iverson, Anthony, and Camby for the Nuggets.

Ironically, in the Celtics game report, I talked about how J.R. Smith tends to play better on the road and how he tends to play better when many of his teammates are playing worse than usual. Little did I know that the very next game would be the all-time biggest example of that, a road game where Smith played the best game of his career, while at the same time 4 of the other 7 Nuggets were small factors and a 5th, Carmelo Anthony, was only about 2/3 as productive as he usually is. Only Allen Iverson and Marcus Camby played well besides Smith, but I know for sure that neither of them is going to be pointing at this game as one of their career best. Smith played 33 minutes and had a Real Player Rating of 1.794, which put him right on the border between superstar-plus and “amazing happens, only certain players can ever fly this high.”

As long as you don’t forget games like this, you can tolerate Smith’s occasional defensive lapses, turnovers, and crazy missed dunks. If you are a coach, why should you deny yourself games like this simply because the kid makes boneheaded plays from time to time? You have to keep looking at the forest while you study the trees. Instead of benching Smith completely or limiting his minutes overall, mainly by refusing to start him, you need to do the opposite. Start him, but if he is having one of his boneheaded nights, simply take him out at the half and let your team go on to win or lose without any interference from the “Bad J.R. Smith.” Why deny yourself the Good J.R. Smith because you are afraid of the Bad J.R. Smith? Just see which one you have out there on different nights and allow him to play or not play in the 2nd half accordingly. It would be the most obvious half time adjustment any Nuggets coach could make, but one that George Karl has seldom if ever made, because he thinks he knows all the truth about the mysterious J.R. Smith up front, and I don’t think anyone knows it.

In this game, J.R. Smith played 33 minutes, and was 15/25, 8/14 on 3’s, and 5/8 from the line for 43 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 assist. The downside was 3 turnovers and 3 personal fouls. Despite Smith’s career night, after the game, Karl showed his fangs against the player who is too impulsive and inconsistent for him to tolerate, by claiming that Smith was “living in fantasyland” with his shooting, and that a team can not hope to win like that. Ironically, this statement was made exactly 10 days after the Nuggets did win because of Smith’s “fantasyland,” shooting. 10 days earlier in Miami, J.R. Smith was by a huge margin the best Nugget on the court, and the Nuggets defeated the Heat in overtime 114-113. In that game, Smith played 27 minutes and was 9/16, 8/14 on 3’s, and 2/3 from the line for 28 points, and he made 3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 rebound. On the downside, he made 2 turnovers and 4 personal fouls.

The Nuggets the other day made what most are looking at as a yawner of a trade; they traded away SG Von Wafer for rookie PG Taurean Green. Although not a blockbuster trade, this was a good little trade for the Nuggets, and since there is no such thing as a good but meaningless trade in competitive pro sports, it was significant and meaningful. The Nuggets needed any pure PG they could get, even a rookie, much more than they needed a totally unproven SG, a position they are set on if AI is going to play it. Furthermore, the move saves the Nuggets almost half a million dollars, which is important because the Nuggets are over the limit right now and the owner is paying the luxury tax for having an excessive player payroll.

Taurean Green played on the University of Florida Gators Men's Basketball team, which won the 2006 NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament in April 2006 and the 2007 NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament in April, 2007, as well as the 2006 and 2007 SEC Tournaments. Green also passed the 1,000-point benchmark in his career at Florida, racking up over 1,170 points in just 3 seasons, the first of which he did not play much. He is only 6 feet tall, 177 pounds. So the Nuggets have another short PG who likes to score. Although possibly problematic, there is no huge sin in that when you have one of the better defensive front courts in the game. I think that the front office did another nice job here.

In 44 NBA minutes so far this season, Green is averaging 13.9 points, 6.5 assists, 3.3 rebounds, and 5.7 turnovers per 36 minutes. Carter is averaging 9.6 points, 7.3 assists, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.4 turnovers per 36 minutes. So Carter is much more careful with the ball, and he is a slightly better distributor and rebounder, but Green makes up partly for all this by being a much better scorer.

Let’s kill two birds with one stone. Let’s check out how all 6 of the Nuggets’ guards are doing so far this season, and so far in their careers. At the same time, we will directly compare Taurean Green and the player who went to Portland in exchange for Green, Von Wafer.

DENVER NUGGETS GUARDS PRODUCTION PER 36 MINUTES

POINT GUARDS POINTS PER 36 MINUTES
Chucky Atkins: Career 14.6 Season 9.2
Anthony Carter: Career 9.0 Season 9.6
Taurean Green: Career 13.9 Season 13.9
SHOOTING GUARDS POINTS PER 36 MINUTES
Allen Iverson: Career 23.9 Season 22.5
J.R. Smith: Career 17.4 Season 20.3
Yakhouba Diawara: Career 8.9 Season 9.3

POINT GUARDS FIELD GOAL SHOOTING %
Chucky Atkins: Career .415 Season .228
Anthony Carter: Career .393 Season .449
Taurean Green: Career .250 Season .250
SHOOTING GUARDS FIELD GOAL SHOOTING %
Allen Iverson: Career .424 Season .442
J.R. Smith: Career .414 Season .427
Yakhouba Diawara: Career .361 Season .416

POINT GUARDS 3-POINT SHOOTING %
Chucky Atkins: Career .368 Season .244
Anthony Carter: Career .182 Season .292
Taurean Green: Career .125 Season .125
SHOOTING GUARDS 3-POINT SHOOTING %
Allen Iverson: Career .312 Season .335
J.R. Smith: Career .359 Season .389
Yakhouba Diawara: Career .302 Season .346

POINT GUARDS ASSISTS PER 36 MINUTES
Chucky Atkins: Career 5.0 Season 3.9
Anthony Carter: Career 7.1 Season 7.3
Taurean Green: Career 6.5 Season 6.5
SHOOTING GUARDS ASSISTS PER 36 MINUTES
Allen Iverson: Career 5.4 Season 6.2
J.R. Smith: Career 2.5 Season 3.1
Yakhouba Diawara: Career 1.8 Season 2.1

POINT GUARDS TURNOVERS PER 36 MINUTES
Chucky Atkins: Career 2.1 Season 0.7
Anthony Carter: Career 2.9 Season 2.4
Taurean Green: Career 5.7 Season 5.7
SHOOTING GUARDS TURNOVERS PER 36 MINUTES
Allen Iverson: Career 3.2 Season 2.8
J.R. Smith: Career 2.2 Season 2.9
Yakhouba Diawara: Career 1.1 Season 1.1

POINT GUARDS ASSIST/TURNOVER RATIO
Chucky Atkins: Career 2.38 Season 5.57
Anthony Carter: Career 2.45 Season 3.04
Taurean Green: Career 1.14 Season 1.14
SHOOTING GUARDS ASSIST/TURNOVER RATIO
Allen Iverson: Career 1.69 Season 2.21
J.R. Smith: Career 1.14 Season 1.07
Yakhouba Diawara: Career 1.64 Season 1.91

POINT GUARDS REBOUNDS PER 36 MINUTES
Chucky Atkins: Career 2.5 Season 2.3
Anthony Carter: Career 3.8 Season 3.9
Taurean Green: Career 3.3 Season 3.3
SHOOTING GUARDS REBOUNDS PER 36 MINUTES
Allen Iverson: Career 3.3 Season 2.6
J.R. Smith: Career 3.5 Season 3.9
Yakhouba Diawara: Career 3.4 Season 3.6

POINT GUARDS STEALS PER 36 MINUTES
Chucky Atkins: Career 1.0 Season 0.9
Anthony Carter: Career 1.7 Season 1.9
Taurean Green: Career 0.8 Season 0.8
SHOOTING GUARDS STEALS PER 36 MINUTES
Allen Iverson: Career 2.0 Season 1.8
J.R. Smith: Career 1.2 Season 1.4
Yakhouba Diawara: Career 0.8 Season 0.6

POINT GUARDS PERSONAL FOULS PER 36 MINUTES
Chucky Atkins; Career 2.7 Season 3.4
Anthony Carter: Career 3.3 Season 3.1
Taurean Green: Career 2.5 Season 2.5
SHOOTING GUARDS PERSONAL FOULS PER 36 MINUTES
Allen Iverson: Career 1.7 Season 1.1
J.R. Smith: Career 3.2 Season 3.8
Yakhouba Diawara: 4.1 Season 4.3

TAUREAN GREEN VERSUS VON WAFER

POINTS PER 36 MINUTES
Taurean Green: Career 13.9 Season 13.9
Von Wafer: Career 10.3 Season 10.8

FIELD GOAL SHOOTING %
Taurean Green: Career .250 Season .250
Von Wafer: Career .208 Season .263

3-POINT SHOOTING %
Taurean Green: Career .125 Season .125
Von Wafer: Career .091 Season .067

ASSISTS PER 36 MINUTES
Taurean Green: Career 6.5 Season 6.5
Von Wafer: Career 2.0 Season 2.0

TURNOVERS PER 36 MINUTES
Taurean Green: Career 5.7 Season 5.7
Von Wafer: Career 2.6 Season 4.4

ASSIST/TURNOVER RATIO
Taurean Green: Career 1.14 Season 1.14
Von Wafer: Career 0.77 Season 0.45

REBOUNDS PER 36 MINUTES
Taurean Green: Career 3.3 Season 3.3
Von Wafer: Career 4.0 Season 4.0

STEALS PER 36 MINUTES
Taurean Green: Career 0.8 Season 0.8
Von Wafer: Career 1.1 Season 0.8

PERSONAL FOULS PER 36 MINUTES
Taurean Green: Career 2.5 Season 2.5
Von Wafer: Career 3.5 Season 1.6

Green is technically too new to make this comparison fully valid, but you can see that, despite being a good true point guard, Green is so far a better scorer than Von Wafer. Notice too that Green is relatively close to Wafer in rebounding, and very close in steals. When Wafer’s turnovers went south this season, the Nuggets, who are way “over the limit” in turnovers as a team, needed Wafer any longer like they needed a hole in the head.

Regarding Taurean Green from Gatorzone.com:
A true point guard with a quick first step and ability to penetrate into the lane…Came up with an impressive freshman campaign where he demonstrated an ability to direct the Gators on the offensive end of the floor, while proving a tenacious defender… Underrated jump shot with solid range from beyond the arc…Son of former UNLV star and NBA player Sidney Green, also the former coach at Florida Atlantic University…AS A FRESHMAN 2004- 05: Showed tremendous potential during his freshman season, becoming a regular in the Gators’ rotation and one of the first off the bench in every game…Averaged 2.2 assists per game and showed an ability to get teammates involved in transition and half court situations…A tenacious defender with quick hands, he was third on the team in steals at 1.0 per game …Posted five points, three assists, and three boards while effectively running the point in 22 minutes of action in his Florida debut vs. Jacksonville…

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE

NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Chucky Atkins: He was diagnosed with a right groin/abdominal strain (sports hernia) on Jan. 9 and underwent successful surgery on Jan. 11. He is expected to be sidelined a minimum of eight weeks. Atkins is out until at least March 10. With any luck, he will be back in the Nuggets lineup by late March.
Nene: underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He is out until at least the first week of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season.
Steven Hunter: He missed the last several games because of soreness and inflammation in his right knee.

BULLS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Jameson Curry: Out indefinitely, Thumb as of 1/31/08. He is scheduled to undergo surgery on his left thumb. Is likely out for the season.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of February 23, 2008

The Nuggets are under a YELLOW ALERT, on account of the following problems.

INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS
1. Chucky Atkins injury 18 points
2. Nene illness 14 points
3. Steven Hunter injury 4 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED PLAYER PERFORMANCE PROBLEMS
There are none at this time: 0 points.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

J.R. Smith was partially benched: 0 points. (He wasn’t partially benched.)

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points. Reserve use was good.

4. The Nuggets have extreme inconsistency and a truly excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a partial system on offense. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson reduces the damage. In broad terms, the team has failed to decide whether it wants Melo alone, Iverson alone, Melo and Iverson together, or neither of them to be firstly responsible for scoring enough points to keep the Nuggets in games. If it were neither, I call the name of that strategy the "share the wealth" strategy. More specifically, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.

On defense a system is much less important than on offense. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. More important than whether a zone or man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 5 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 41, which constitutes YELLOW ALERT.

YELLOW ALERT (40-54): Minor damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under medium threat. Beating quality teams is much more difficult and will be pretty rare. About 1/2 of all wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is a little more difficult. About 1/4 of games that would be wins against mid-level teams will now be losses. Beating low level teams is still relatively easy, but no longer almost a sure bet. A good team has become in between a good team and a mid-level team when it is under this alert.

The damage description assumes that Nuggets opponents are in a GREY ALERT or better status. When the Nuggets play teams that are in yellow alert or worse, the damage they suffer from being in a significant alert status will be substantially reduced. In other words, opponents who are themselves in significant alert situations will obviously be more beatable, even when the Nuggets are in a significant alert situation.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS
Linas Kleiza was playing as if he was still injured from the ankle sprain he suffered in the Boston game 3 nights ago. Since Kleiza’s alert system point value is 17, the Nuggets alert points may actually be 58, which would bump up the Nuggets to an ORANGE alert. While the Nuggets had 3 significant players actually or effectively unavailable in this game, the Bulls had only 1 relatively insignificant player unavailable. On the other hand, the Bulls have an interim coach and a partly blown up team to contend with. I would estimate that the Bulls alert status would probably be YELLOW, so the Bulls had both the home court and a one level alert status advantage in this game.

J.R. Smith’s playing time surged to 33 minutes in this game, the theoretical maximum under Karl. Karl had no choice but to play Smith for as many minutes as he would under any circumstances, because the circumstances were as pro-Smith as you can get. Smith was in his maximum zone while Martin, Carter and Kleiza were miserable, and only 2 of the Nuggets’ starters were getting it done in this game: Camby and Iverson. The only other guards on the roster available were Diawara, whose star has fallen so far that I look for him to be waived by the Nuggets this summer, and Taurean Green, the rookie PG just acquired from Portland. So now there will be one game this year where Smith played a few more minutes than what his average playing time should be. Wow, wonders never cease.

Both Atkins and Nene are definitely going to be out for many more weeks and either one of them or both of them could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. And George Karl is definitely not going to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon. Therefore, the Nuggets, unless they make a trade and/or acquire a diamond in the rough player, are doomed to be in ORANGE ALERT or YELLOW ALERT for most or all of the rest of the season, which endangers their chances of making the playoffs. Hollinger at ESPN has the odds that the Nuggets will make the playoffs at about 65% right now though, which is a big improvement from just a two weeks ago, when the odds were about 50%. But the 65% chance is dumb with respect to the indefinite unavailability of Nene and Atkins, so the real odds could be less, say, around 55%.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Bulls 9
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Bulls 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 47
Bulls Non-Starters Points: 52

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 13
Bulls Non-Starters Rebounds: 14

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 1
Bulls Non-Starters Assists: 9

OBSERVATIONS ON HOW THE RESERVES WERE USED AND PLAYED
George Karl is boxed in these days in terms of the number of players. Even he rarely plays just 7 players, and since the Nuggets have only 13 active players right now, and 3 of them are injured, if you play 8 players, you are leaving only 2 on the bench, to be played in garbage time only. You can almost never fault a coach for leaving 2 reserves unused. If you look at the two who were not played here, Yakhouba Diawara and Taurean Green, you have in Diawara a player who is kept completely out of the offense by both Carter and Iverson, and in Green a rookie PG who just arrived on the team a day or so ago. So you can’t argue with Karl’s selections at all but, unfortunately, that is mainly because no coach could possibly select the wrong players in the situation the Nuggets find themselves in right now.

Notice how in assists the Nugget’s non-starters were destroyed by the Bull’s non-starters. Although worse than usual, this is happening in almost every game. It is practically getting to the point that the Nuggets have an unwritten rule: only starters are allowed to make good passes leading to scores. Denver non-starters are lucky to get the ball much at all, and they had better jack up shots most every chance they get, if they want to score enough points to avoid being benched. And if they happen to hit a few shots, they might get an improvement on their limited playing time. Najera, however, gets about the same playing time whether he gets some scores and assists or not, because he is valued as a defensive specialist. For the record, though, it should be noted that Najera is well below normal, for a PF, in both scoring and assisting.

The reserve watch feature is under development, and it will be gradually expanded. The complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. Many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-BULLS PLAYER RATINGS
J.R. Smith: Game 59.2 Season 15.6
Allen Iverson: Game 48.6 Season 40.9
Marcus Camby: Game 44.0 Season 33.3
Carmelo Anthony: Game 28.2 Season 39.2
Eduardo Najera: Game 9.0 Season 13.1
Kenyon Martin: Game 6.7 Season 22.4
Anthony Carter: Game 3.0 Season 20.6
Linas Kleiza: Game -0.6 Season 19.1

Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Injury
Nene: Did Not Play-Illness
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Injury

Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Von Wafer: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

BULLS PLAYER RATINGS
Ben Gordon: Game 56.7 Season 28.1
Tyrus Thomas: Game 45.9 Season 13.0
Kirk Hinrich: Game 40.4 Season 25.3
Joakim Noah: Game 35.1 Season 11.9
Andres Nocioni: Game 29.6 Season 22.2
Thabo Sefolosha: Game 26.9 Season 12.6
Luol Deng: Game 13.0 Season 28.2
Aaron Gray: Game 6.1 Season 7.3
Chris Duhon: Game 3.1 Season 13.2
NOTE: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
J.R. Smith, in the game of his career so far, exploded for 4 times his usual performance in about 2 times his usual time. But Iverson and Camby were the only two other Nuggets above their normals for this season. Anthony and Najera came up a little short. Martin was almost a no-show, and Carter, and Kleiza were total no-shows. But Kleiza may have been still impacted by the painful ankle sprain he suffered in the Boston game 3 nights earlier.

While the Nuggets had 4 high output players, Smith, Iverson, Camby, and Anthony, the Bulls had 6: Gordon, Thomas, Hinrich, Noah, Nocioni, and Sefolosha. Astoundingly, all 6 of these Bulls players were well above their seasonal averages. Noah and Thomas stepped up huge and produced at roughly triple their averages, Gordon and Sefolosha stepped up big, to roughly double their averages, and Hinrich and Nocioni also were well ahead of their seasonal normals. These 6 Bulls crushed the Nuggets’ defenders and did almost any damage they wanted to the score and to the Nuggets’ playoff hopes all night long.

Luol Deng was well below normal, yet still contributed. The only Chicago disappointment in this game was Chris Duhon. The Nuggets had 3 disappointments, 4 of them if you count Najera and 5 of them if you count Najera and Anthony.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Bad Game-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-BULLS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. J.R. Smith, Den 1.794
2. Ben Gordon, Chi 1.668
3. Tyrus Thomas, Chi 1.350
4. Thabo Sefolosha, Chi 1.281
5. Marcus Camby, Den 1.128
6. Kirk Hinrich, Chi 1.122
7. Allen Iverson, Den 1.105
8. Andres Nocioni, Chi 1.096
9. Joakim Noah, Chi 0.924
10. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.742
11. Luol Deng, Chi 0.650
12. Aaron Gray, Chi 0.508
13. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.375
14. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.231
15. Anthony Carter, Den 0.214
16. Chris Duhon, Chi 0.172
17. Linas Kleiza, Den -0.032

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
J.R. Smith missed the rare highest rating by a tiny amount, One more of anything good or one fewer of anything bad would have gotten him the very highest rating. Carmelo Anthony did reach the highest possible rating on Feb. 8 against the Wizards. J.R. Smith did reach the highest possible rating on Jan. 7 against the Suns, but he only played 5 minutes, the minimum needed to be rated, so that is not really a huge accomplishment. Carmelo Anthony came extremely close to the highest possible rating on Dec. 2 in Denver against the Heat. J.R. Smith did reached the highest possible level in Denver on Nov. 12 against the Cavaliers.

So technically, there have been 3 times when a Nugget has reached the highest possible level this year, two times by Smith and 1 time by Anthony. But one of the Smith instances was where he played only 5 minutes. Also, both Anthony and now Smith have had 1 instance where they just barely missed reaching the highest possible level.

While this game was Smith’s game of the year in terms of total production, his game of the year in terms of production per minute was when he played 24 minutes and earned a real player rating of 2.000 in the Nov. 12 game in Denver against the Cavaliers. Either of these two games could be considered as the game of the year for the extremely explosive player known as J.R. Smith.

Smith for Denver and Gordon for Chicago were superstars-plus. Thomas and Sefolosha for the Bulls and no one for the Nuggets were stars-plus. There were 4 plain old stars, Hinrich and Nocioni for the Bulls, and Camby and Iverson for the Nuggets. Also, Joakim Noah was outstanding for the Bulls. The Bulls had 6 of the 9 players who were outstanding or better. So the Nuggets were saved by J.R. Smith’s threes from having been routed by about 25-30 points in this game.

At the low end, the Nuggets had 4 players who were very poor or worse: Najera, Martin, Carter, and Kleiza. The Bulls had just one, Duhon.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Eduardo Najera: +19
Linas Kleiza: +14
J.R. Smith: +8
Marcus Camby: -14
Allen Iverson: -16
Anthony Carter: -19
Carmelo Anthony: -28
Kenyon Martin: -34

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
Even though Kleiza was not a force either offensively or defensively, he had a good plus-minus, at least partly by luck. Najera clearly was a very good defender in this game, whereas Marin’s defending was shockingly poor in this game. Anthony is known for relatively poor defending, and this game will bolster that reputation. Carter had a flat-out miserable outing, and Camby was overwhelmed defensively by the Bulls, though he was actually very good on offense. J.R. Smith earned his weight with all his fantastic scoring; defensively he could not keep up too well with the Bulls onslaught. .

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: Total 15, Team 0, Anthony 3, Camby 2, Carter 2, Iverson 3, Kleiza 0, Martin 1, Najera 1, Smith 3

Personal Fouls: Total 21, Anthony 2, Camby 4, Carter 2, Iverson 0, Kleiza 2, Martin 4, Najera 4, Smith 3

Linas Kleiza played 19 minutes and was 0/7 and 0/4 on 3’s for 0 points, and he made 5 rebounds.

Anthony Carter played 14 minutes and was 0/1 for 0 points, and he made 3 assists and 1 steal.

Kenyon Martin played 29 minutes and was 2/5 for 4 points, and he made 1 block, 1 assist, and 1 rebound.

Eduardo Najera played 24 minutes and was 1/2, 0/1 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 4 points, and he made 3 rebounds and 2 steals.

Carmelo Anthony played 38 minutes, and was 7/20, 1/4 on 3’s, and 7/7 from the line for 22 points, and he made 8 rebounds and 1 assist.

Allen Iverson played virtually the whole game, 44 minutes, and was 10/17, 0/3 on 3’s, and 9/11 from the line for 29 points, and he made 9 assists and 4 rebounds.

Marcus Camby played 39 minutes and was 8/12, 1/2 on 3’s, and 2/4 from the line for 19 points, and he made 11 rebounds, 6 blocks, and 2 assists.

J.R. Smith played 33 minutes, and was 15/25, 8/14 on 3’s, and 5/8 from the line for 43 points, and he made 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 assist.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Saturday, February 23 in Milwaukee to play the Bucks at 6:30 pm mountain time. Both the Nuggets and the Bucks will be playing on back to back nights.

Nuggets 1 Welcomes Taurean Green to the Nuggets

Nuggets 1 welcomes Taurean Green to the Nuggets.

The Nuggets Stake Claim on the Playoffs in the Game of the Year: Nuggets 124 Celtics 118, and Why Basketball is Better Than Real Life

The Nuggets brought it all to the important first game after the all-star break, and defeated the Celtics, who almost everyone has penciled in for the East Conference finals, and who many have penciled in for this year’s NBA Championship series. The Nuggets were aggressive and relentless in most all aspects of the game that a bound and determined team uses to win as an underdog. They drove to the hoop, they made shots they miss on lesser occasions, even including a Camby three, they kept turnovers in check despite moving the ball enough to keep defenders off balance and to get a huge 29 assists, they directly blocked the Celtics by making a massive 12 blocks, and they relied on the strongest side of the team, the offensive side, much more than the defensive, which is definitely not the Nuggets’ preferred side of basketball. The final score of what will likely be the game of the year for the Nuggets was Nuggets 124, Celtics 118.

The Nuggets won it their offensive way and, as I have said before, this is the only way the Nuggets can win in the playoffs. Trying to win defensive struggles is a lost cause for the Nuggets in a playoff series. If you can’t win in the playoffs with offense, due to different officiating or just due to greater intensity defensively, then it’s just too bad for the Nuggets, because they are definitely not going to win if that is the case. But I think that is one of those generalities for which you can find exceptions in history. A team that is truly great offensively can eventually cause a team trying to grind out defensive wins to first lose their confidence, then their morale, then their energy, then some games, and then the series.

Denver is 22-6 at the Pepsi Center this season. The Nuggets have lost fewer games at home than any other team in the West except for the Mavericks, the Jazz, and the Spurs. I think there is some kind of law in Texas that says you have to pay a fine and your coach has to spend the night in lockup if you beat the Spurs or the Mavericks on Texas soil. So that would explain the Mavericks and the Spurs almost never losing at home. As for the Jazz, teams get the creepies when they visit Salt Lake City, and their basketball suffers as a result. The Nuggets had 19,894 fans in attendance, the largest regular season crowd in franchise history. They picked the best game of the season to come watch.

Every single Nugget starter, along with Kleiza among the non-starters, put one of their better performances of the season so far out there. That is rare, and a team will almost always win when that happens. The fact it was a roughly close game shows you how a good a team they were playing. The Nuggets were truly out to slay a dragon in this one. PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen, and especially SF Paul Pierce were outstanding for the Celtics, and there were no fewer than three Celtics non-starters who were big well: SF James Posey, SG Tony Allen, and, especially PF Leon Powe. Were it not for the rustiness of Kevin Garnett, who was back starting following 9 games out with an abdominal strain, this game would have been a NBA classic rather than simply a Nuggets classic; it would have been a photo finish, and very possibly an overtime game to boot.

The Nuggets’ relentless aggression resulted in their getting a season high 49 free throws, but they made only 34 of them. Adrenalin will do that to you sometimes; you expend it all earning the free throw and then miss one of the free throws.

Linas Kleiza, who had a very painful ankle sprain in the first half, nevertheless came back in the second half and, in the 4th quarter, added 2 extremely important threes to the one he made in the 2nd quarter. So he finished a perfect 3/3 from long range. He shook off the pain, got quality assistance from the overworked Nuggets’ trainers, and came back to deliver what the Nuggets usually lack, great three point shooting.

Iverson delivered his intelligence and drive, and powered his way to 20 free throws, of which he made 14. Just as importantly, Iverson beat out Carter in assisting, 9-8, and was just one assist short of achieving the 10 Iverson assists and the Nuggets almost always win reality.

Carmelo Anthony was not too far behind his older superstar brethren; he made 12/13 free throws. 8/17 shots, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. Marcus Camby made 13 rebounds, scored 11 points, and made 9 blocks. I give the man a triple double, because clearly blocks are more difficult to get than anything else in basketball, since so many attempted blocks turn into personal fouls.

Kenyon Martin was extremely efficient on offense and a power defensively as usual. PG Anthony Carter is inconsistent but is overall much better than expected this season; he rose to this occasion with 8 assists and 14 points on 5/10 shooting.

In short, the Nuggets were as solid as the Rocky Mountains in this game, while the Celtics could only blame the relatively thin air for their defense in general and Garnett in particular coming up short. Sorry, but the real reason the Celtics lost was because the Nuggets were not going to lose to anyone that night, pure and simple. Rumors that the quest for the ring has died have been a little premature.

I like the way Iverson thinks because, for some strange reason, I think like he does most of the time. So let me let him do the talking, because he is saying exactly what I am saying following this historic win: “Winning this game puts a lot of pressure on us, because if you can beat a team like this, then you can beat all the other teams,” Iverson said. “We have enough talent to scare some people, but we just have to bring it night in and night out. I don’t look at it as we beat the best team in the league, a win is a win. Obviously, we can compete with anybody. No one seems to know how much talent we have.” Allen, Nuggets 1 and Nuggets 1 readers are the exception; we do know that the Nuggets are approximately the most talented team in the NBA. Why do you think these reports are so damn long and detailed?

The Nuggets win was a big step away from the nightmare scenario where they end up being the ultimate chump team this season. There will be a chump team this year in the West, a team that finishes with a very nice record but does not make the playoffs. This will be the team that finishes as the 9th seed, also known as the demon seed from hell.

Assuming the Hornets, the Lakers, the Suns, the Mavericks, the Spurs, and the Jazz are playoff locks, if the Nuggets lose out to both the Warriors and the Rockets, they miss the playoffs! Someone is going to be left holding the chump bag: they are going to be a good winning team but they are not going to get a playoff series. Right now, the Nuggets are 1-1 vs. Golden State with 2 games against them left, on March 29 and April 10. The Nuggets are also 1-1 against the Rockets with 2 games against them left, on March 2 and April 13. The April 13 game against the Rockets will be back to back for the Nuggets but not for the Rockets, making that one a very likely Rockets win. There are no other back to back circumstances for any team among the 4 Nuggets games left versus the Warriors and the Rockets.

For my reader’s reference, here from wikipedia is an excellent and relatively brief description of how the playoff matchups are decided in the NBA:

Following the NBA regular season, eight teams in each conference qualify for the playoffs and are seeded one to eight.

The team that has the best record in each of the three divisions in each conference is declared division champion. The three champions and the one other team in the conference with the best record are seeded one through four by their records. This guarantees that the division champions will be no lower than fourth seed, and also ensures that a conference's two best teams (by record) are ranked as the top two. Of the remaining 11 conference teams, the four with the best records are seeded fifth through eighth based on their records.

In the event that two teams end up tied for the same seed, the following tiebreakers are employed:

1. Head-to-head
2. Division record (if the teams are in the same division)
3. Conference record
4. Record vs. Playoff teams, own conference
5. Record vs. Playoff teams, other conference
6. Net points, all games

The first round of the playoffs, or Conference Quarterfinals, consists of four matchups in each conference, based on the seedings (1-8, 2-7, 3-6, and 4-5). The eight winners advance to the second round, or Conference Semifinals, in which, unlike other leagues such as the NHL, matchups are set in advance as between the winners of the 1-8 and 4-5 series, and the winners of the 2-7 and 3-6 series, and not based on the seeds of the winners of those series. The winners of these series advance to the NBA Conference Finals, which determines which team in each conference will advance to the NBA Finals, the winner of which is declared the NBA champion.

Each round is a best-of-seven series. All series except the NBA Finals are played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format, meaning the team with home-court advantage hosts games 1, 2, 5 and 7, while their opponent hosts games 3, 4, and 6, with games 5-7 being played if needed. The NBA Finals are played in a 2-3-2 format, meaning the team with home-court advantage hosts games 1, 2, 6 and 7, and their opponent hosts games 3, 4 and 5. The home-court advantage is determined in all four rounds by record, regardless of seed.

I think the team deserves better acceptance for what it’s done,” Karl said. No Coach, the team was always accepted as a true though long-shot contender. It deserves better acceptance from you. And I think, if only unconsciously, that is exactly what Karl was actually saying to us. You need to come out from under your seat now, Mr. Karl.

Why do college educated brainiacs like me like sports? Because they are often the way we think life in the real world should be, has to be in my case in fact, but isn’t, because life in the real world is distorted, poisoned, and rotted by powerful forces such as greed, incompetence, corruption, and inequality.

In sports, greed does not get you anywhere important. Greedy, selfish players are marginalized and disliked, sometimes even hated. The more excessively greedy a player is, the more his playing time is cut. If untreated and unadjusted, selfishness can lead to a player being repeatedly traded, and even to a once promising career crashing and burning into a very early retirement. Greedy players cost their teams, and the team will take action until the greed is reduced to a tolerable level.

Some very talented players are not by pure nature greedy, but greedy only to the extent they think this will get their team wins. Such players, by definition, are relatively intelligent, because they are thinking strategically, like good coaches do. Such players respond to evidence that they are trying to do too much by ramping back their selfishness, until they can get as close to the optimum balance between what they do and what the rest of the team does as they can. The Nuggets have at least as many talented players of this type as any other NBA team: Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, and Marcus Camby are all players of this type. Camby hogs rebounding and defensive positioning to one extent or another. Anthony hogs shots taken to one extent or another. Iverson hogs handling the ball and sometimes shooting as well, to one extent or another. Fortunately, each of these three understand what I am talking about here, that they should keep working to get the balance right between trying to do what they do well too often and the right number of times.

By contrast, it is not clear to me certain players, such as Tracy McGrady, Dirk Nowitzki and LeBron James, understand this as much as they need to, and nor is it clear that they are capable of reducing their selfhishness into the safe range were they to try. But writers and fans for the Rockets, the Mavericks, and the Cavaliers are going to probably dispute that.

In sports incompetence is continuously and powerfully attacked. In sports the talent always rises to the top. The starters are almost always the best players on a team. When there is an exception, such as J.R. Smith on the Nuggets, writers and fans are all over the issue, which to me is a mistake, strongly and in detail. Those who think it is correct that J.R. Smith not start, and even those who think Smith should not play at all, are all over the debate themselves, precisely because almost all of them agree with the overall rule that talent is supposed to be at the top at all times in sports, no exceptions. The argument is about how talented J.R. Smith is, not about whether talent should be the most important thing. In the real world, though, talent does not always win, and arguments do not always assume that talent should prevail.

In sports, uncorrected incompetence is punished every time. A player who is incompetent at something important is going to lose playing time and fan recognition to one extent or another, even if he is super talented otherwise.

Corruption ruins the atmosphere and the fan devotion to sports, as the periodic baseball investigations of steroid abuse and the basketball referee scandal illustrate. Corruption is so anathema to sports that just a rumor of it generates a vigorous investigation of it every time. And when corruption is found, it is cut down to nothing, or at least cut down to next to nothing, fast enough to make the heads spin of those who follow real world corruption and the seeming helplessness of anyone, powerful or not, to do anything about it. In short, the world can really suck sometimes and, just as bad, no one seems to be able to, even for a short time, bring the world back to an uncorrupted state.

Corruption in a basketball game would be planning to and committing flagrant fouls continuously, without penalty, until the other team was terrorized into submission. But in basketball, everyone has to play by and, like them or not, agree to be bound and judged by the same rules, equally. If you try to cheat to win in a basketball game, you get penalized by the referee. If you try to bribe the referee, you will get fined and suspended by the commissioner. If you are a referee and you try to fix a game you will be found out and fired. In basketball, anyone who cheats loses, usually instantly, always eventually. Everyone pays a price for doing wrong. The real world is not at all like that.

The real world is hopelessly unequal. The rich man has thousands of options with which he can make more money; the poorer man has maybe a few dozen, most or all of which he is unaware of. And the poorest man has almost or literally no options at all. A basketball player with the ball is theoretically equal to any other basketball player with the ball. Any basketball player with the ball can choose to do anything any other basketball player with the ball can: dribble and move, dribble and not move, bounce pass, lob pass, pass, drive to the hoop, jump shoot, and so forth. It’s all the same for everybody.

Successful teams have to play together, without greed, incompetence, corruption, and inequality, one for all and all for one. In most games though, of course, there will still be traces of greed, incompetence, corruption, and inequality in the play of a team. Whichever team has less of these four bad features will most of the time win the game.

But in basketball, on rare occasions, and when you least expect them, a team will play seemingly with no greed, no incompetence, no corruption, and no inequality at all. They have entered a zone that you will never see in the real world, a world which can not even keep the bad stuff limited let alone eliminate it to the point where it can not be detected. Your team in the zone puts you into euphoria, the experience is indescribably great. I can not really describe to you how happy I was when the Nuggets won a game I had penciled in as a loss.

At that time, when your team is pure, when everything is good, when everything is damn near perfect, your soul is healed and you are pure again, like the day you were born. You and your team are innocent and pure, you have been raised above all the bad, and you are flying high above all the rot of the world below. You get to breath the air up there, where everything is the way it should be.

You and your team are invincible at that moment in time, and you are unbelievably satisfied and happy that you spent whatever you spent in following your team until they finally reached this moment, and you will remember and treasure it forever, come what may.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE

NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Chucky Atkins: He was diagnosed with a right groin/abdominal strain (Sports Hernia) on Jan. 9 and underwent successful surgery on Jan. 11. He is expected to be sidelined a minimum of eight weeks. Atkins is out until at least mid March. With any luck, he will be back in the Nuggets lineup by early April.
Nene: underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He is out until at least the first of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season.
Linas Kleiza: suffered a sprained left ankle in this game. His status will be evaluated on a day-to-day basis. Kleiza was held to 18 minutes in this game, though he played until half way through the 4th quarter.
Steven Hunter: He missed the last three games because of soreness and inflammation in his right knee.

CELTICS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Scot Pollard: He is out indefinitely with a sprained ankle
Brian Scalabrine: Day to day; missed last two games with a pulled groin.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of February 20, 2008

The Nuggets are under a YELLOW ALERT, on account of the following problems.

INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS
1. Chucky Atkins injury 18 points
2. Nene illness 14 points
3. Linas Kleiza 4 points
3. Steven Hunter injury 4 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED PLAYER PERFORMANCE PROBLEMS
There are none at this time: 0 points.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver Coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

J.R. Smith was partially benched: 5 points.

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points.

4. The Nuggets have extreme inconsistency and a truly excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a partial system on offense. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson reduces the damage. In broad terms, the team has failed to decide whether it wants Melo alone, Iverson alone, Melo and Iverson together, or neither of them to be firstly responsible for scoring enough points to keep the Nuggets in games. If it were neither, I call the name of that strategy the "share the wealth" strategy. More specifically, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and schemes: 6 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans sometime think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 51, which constitutes YELLOW ALERT.

YELLOW ALERT (40-54): Minor damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under medium threat. Beating quality teams is much more difficult and will be pretty rare. About 1/2 of all wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is a little more difficult. About 1/4 of games that would be wins against mid-level teams will now be losses. Beating low level teams is still relatively easy, but no longer almost a sure bet. A good team has become in between a good team and a mid-level team when it is under this alert.

The damage description assumes that Nuggets opponents are in a GREY ALERT or better status. When the Nuggets play teams that are in yellow alert or worse, the damage they suffer from being in a significant alert status will be substantially reduced. In other words, opponents who are themselves in significant alert situations will obviously be more beatable, even when the Nuggets are in a significant alert situation.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS
Both Scalabrine and Pollard are deep bench players for the Celtics, so their absence was not very significant, and Boston was most likely in a GREY or even a GREEN alert. So, the Nuggets defeated the Celtics with one hand tied behind the back. Ok, that may be too boasting, I’ll come clean. How about: “The Nuggets defeated the Celtics with one eye shut.”? Ears plugged? With a weight in their sneakers? Oh well, you get the idea. J.R. Smith was not hitting his threes well in this game, so his partial benching didn’t really hurt at all. This game was so close to perfect, that even the things that are generally bad for the Nuggets, such as J.R. Smith not playing enough, were good in this situation.

Both Atkins and Nene are definitely going to be out for many more weeks and either one of them or both of them could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. And George Karl is definitely not going to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon. Therefore, the Nuggets, unless they make a trade and/or acquire a diamond in the rough player, are doomed to be in ORANGE ALERT or YELLOW ALERT for most or all of the rest of the season, which endangers their chances of making the playoffs. Hollinger at ESPN has the odds that the Nuggets will make the playoffs at about 65% right now though, which is a big improvement from just a two weeks ago, when the odds were about 50%. But the 65% chance is dumb with respect to the indefinite unavailability of Nene and Atkins, so the real odds could be less, say, around 55%.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Celtics 10
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Celtics 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 23
Celtics Non-Starters Points: 46

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 8
Celtics Non-Starters Rebounds: 24

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 4
Celtics Non-Starters Assists: 6

OBSERVATIONS ON HOW THE RESERVES WERE USED AND PLAYED
The Celtics’ non-starters heavily dominated the Nuggets’ non-starters in points and especially rebounding. The Celtics played 10 players and the Nuggets played 8, but since every one of the five Nuggets starters, Carter, Iverson, Anthony, Martin, and Camby, played better than usual, it didn’t matter that the Celtics had more potential surprise contributors.

The reserve watch feature is under development, and it will be gradually expanded. The complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. Many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-CELTICS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 43.3 Season 40.9
Marcus Camby: Game 43.3 Season 33.2
Carmelo Anthony: Game 42.9 Season 39.4
Kenyon Martin: Game 31.5 Season 22.5
Anthony Carter: Game 29.5 Season 21.1
Linas Kleiza: Game 23.2 Season 19.5
Eduardo Najera: Game 12.2 Season 13.1
J.R. Smith: Game 8.7 Season 14.4

Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Injury
Nene: Did Not Play-Illness
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Injury

Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Von Wafer: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

CELTICS PLAYER RATINGS
Paul Pierce: Game 40.1 Season 34.4
Ray Allen: Game 31.9 Season 28.7
Rajon Rondo: Game 29.1 Season 23.2
Leon Powe: Game 25.9 Season 11.4
James Posey: Game 24.0 Season 14.7
Tony Allen: Game 18.3 Season 11.9
Eddie House: Game 11.8 Season 13.5
Kevin Garnett: Game 9.2 Season 38.5
Kendrick Perkins: Game 6.4 Season 15.7
Glen Davis: Game 5.4 Season 8.6

NOTE: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
You rarely see all 5 of your starters above normal, and this is another major clue that this was as perfect a game as you will see played by the Nuggets all this season, unless they shock the world and start playing with this intensity and effort from time to time the rest of the season. This was the type of game you see played by Championship teams in a Championship series.

Three Celtics non-starters, SF James Posey, PF Leon Powe, and SG Tony Allen, did come through for Coach Doc Rivers, but it was not enough against the Nuggets’ royal flush, where all five starters stepped up.

Among the Celtics’ starters, PG Rondo, SG Ray Allen, and especially SF Pierce delivered for Rivers, but C Perkins and PF Garnett couldn’t get the packages to their destinations. Garnett was grossly below normal due to bench rust from having missed the last 9 straight games due to an abdominal strain.

The Nuggets had only one player substantially below normal, and you know who it had to be, don’t you? Of course, it was J.R. Smith, who is kind of like the Nugget from the alternate universe. Generally speaking, and much of the time, the better the Nuggets as a whole are playing, the worse Smith plays. But, on the other hand, the worse the Nuggets as a whole are playing, the better Smith plays. Since the Nuggets this season, unlike last season, have played much better at home than on the road, Smith has played much better on the road than at home this season, which has had the unfortunate effect of making local Denver fans who go to games, but who don’t read my reports, more negative toward Smith than they should be, becoming unwitting allies of Karl, who most of the most extreme Nuggets fans agree is biased against Smith. Smith has helped win a few important road games for the Nuggets this year, including most recently the game at Miami just before the all-star break.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Bad Game-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-CELTICS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Linas Kleiza, Den 1.289
2. Leon Powe, Bos 1.233
3. Kenyon Martin, Den 1.125
4. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.100
5. Marcus Camby, Den 1.083
6. Paul Pierce, Bos 0.978
7. Rajon Rondo, Bos 0.970
8. Tony Allen, Bos 0.963
9. Allen Iverson, Den 0.962
10. Anthony Carter, Den 0.922
11. Ray Allen, Bos 0.886
12. Glen Davis, Bos 0.771…Davis played just 7 minutes.
13. Eddie House, Bos 0.656
14. James Posey, Bos 0.649
15. Kendrick Perkins, Bos 0.640
16. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.581
17. J.R. Smith, Den 0.512
18. Kevin Garnett, Bos 0.438

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kleiza and Powe, both star-plus, were the somewhat unlikely leaders for the Nuggets and Celtics, respectively. There were 3 plain old stars in this game, and all of them were Nuggets: Camby, Anthony and Martin.

There were 5 outstanding players in this game, three Celtics and two Nuggets. Pierce, Rondo, and Tony Allen were outstanding for Boston, while the Nugget’s starting guards, Carter and Iverson, were both outstanding.

There were, count them, 10 players who were outstanding or better, which is about as many as you ever see in an NBA game. Of those, the Nuggets had 6 and the Celtics had 4. Of the 5 players who were stars or better, the Nuggets dominated with 4 out of 5 of them.

There were very few players at the low levels of performance. Smith and Najera were poor for the Nuggets, while Garnett was very poor for Boston. Garnett never plays this way normally. He was rusty after missing 9 straight games with an abdominal strain. Coach Doc Rivers wisely limited Garnett’s playing time to 21 minutes compared with his usual 35 minutes a game.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Carmelo Anthony: +16
Allen Iverson: +12
Anthony Carter: +12
Marcus Camby: +9
Kenyon Martin: +6
Linas Kleiza: -5
Eduardo Najera: -8
J.R. Smith: -12

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
It doesn’t get any better than this on the plus-minus, all Nuggets’ starters heavily on the plus side against what is most likely the best team in the Eastern Conference. Kleiza was slowed down, especially defensively, during this game from a painful, though apparently not very severe, ankle sprain. So he was more of a liability on defense than he would have been without the sprain. Najera and Smith were the only two Nuggets who missed the party. This was normal for Smith, who in Karl’s mind is the black sheep of the Nuggets, and is not allowed at Nuggets parties. As for Najera, he is a fairly good defender, but the Celtics are better than a fairly good offensive team, so Najera was not as effective defensively as he can frequently be against lesser teams.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: Total 16, Team, Anthony 6, Camby 1, Carter 2, Iverson 4, Kleiza 1, Martin 1, Najera 1, Smith 0

Personal Fouls: Total 26, Anthony 5, Camby 5, Carter 4, Iverson 3, Kleiza 2, Martin 6, Najera 1, Smith 0

J.R. Smith played 17 minutes and was 3/9 and 1/6 on 3’s for 7 points, and he made 2 rebounds and 1 steal.

Eduardo Najera played 21 minutes and was 2/3 and 1/2 on 3’s for 5 points, and he made 2 blocks, 2 rebounds, and 1 assist.

Anthony Carter played 32 minutes and was 5/10, 1/3 on 3’s, and 3/5 from the line for 14 points, and he made 8 assists, 4 rebounds, and 1 steal.

Allen Iverson played virtually the whole game, 45 minutes, and was 7/16, 0/1 on 3’s, and 14/20 from the line for 28 points, and he made 9 assists and 7 rebounds.

Marcus Camby played most of the game, 40 minutes, and was 4/8, 1/1 on 3’s, and 2/4 from the line for 11 points, and he made 13 rebounds, 9 blocks, 3 steals, and 3 assists.

Carmelo Anthony played 39 minutes and was 8/17, 1/1 on 3’s, and 12/13 from the line for 29 points, and he made 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals.

Kenyon Martin played 28 minutes and was 8/12 and 3/7 from the line for 19 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block, and 1 assist.

Linas Kleiza played 18 minutes and was 4/5 and 3/3 on 3’s for 11 points, and he made 4 rebounds and 3 assists.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Friday, February 20 in Chicago to play the Bulls at 6 pm mountain time. Neither the Nuggets nor the Bulls will be playing on back to back nights.