The Denver Nuggets Shut Down and Defeat the Toronto Raptors 109-100

In a game where neither the Denver Nuggets nor the Toronto Raptors had a playmaking identity, the Nuggets trailed most of the way but made a few great defensive stops late and defeated the Raptors in Toronto 109-100. Raptor star PF Chris Bosh, back from knee problems that kept him out of 5 straight road games, all of which were losses for the Raptors, made too many assists and not enough scores. He was too unselfish. Denver playmaking was about as spread out among all players as much as you will ever see. If you try to beat the Nuggets while neither team has established playmakers, you are very likely to lose. The Nuggets love to use their huge talent bank in these kinds of games. Teams such as the Suns, the Rockets, and the Spurs would never be foolish enough to attempt to defeat the Nuggets without an offense with established playmakers. The Nuggets are the kings of scoring a lot of points against average and below average defenses while operating with no playmaking identity and with an almost totally unplanned offense. In other words, the Nuggets are the Kings of the local recreation center court.

The Raptors also, who are one of the best NBA jump shooting teams, and also one of the best 3-point shooting teams, need their best two playmaking guards to make at least half their assists, but in this game, PG Juan Calderon and PG T.J. Ford combined for just 10 of the 27 assists that Toronto made.

So with the Raptors you have a team that shoots well but doesn’t make plays well, a combination that almost makes your head spin. Oh wait, the Nuggets are another team like that, so no wonder my head spins a lot while I watch the games and report on the team. If you are keeping score, the Raptors are only the 10th best offense in the NBA adjusted for pace, while the Nuggets are the 11th best offense. Two peas in a pod, actually.

If the Nuggets are scoring more than 105 points a game and they are about 3rd out of 30 teams in gross scoring, then why do I spend so much time complaining that the team lacks this, that, and the other thing offensively? Because the Nuggets’ offense is very easy for the best teams in general, and for especially the best defensive teams in particular, to shut down.

So when you hear in the days ahead “No one wants to play the Nuggets in the playoffs, because this team is just plain dangerous,” don’t believe it. Teams like the Rockets, the Hornets, and the Lakers will be hoping to draw the Nuggets in the playoffs, because they know first hand how the Nuggets offense is built on a flimsy foundation, and can be severely throttled relatively easily with the extra motivation that comes from playing in the playoffs. Meanwhile, they don’t want to play the Warriors, who have a clear playmaking identity spearheaded by Baron Davis, and who demonstrated how dangerous such a well designed offense can be when they upset the Dallas Mavericks last year.

Neither the Nuggets nor the Raptors turned it over much in this game. The Nuggets, who are turning it over much less now that Iverson is running the point more often and running isolation scoring attempts less often, made just 7 turnovers in this game, while the Raptors made 11.

The game predictably started with the lineup that Karl has worshiped this year: Anthony Carter PG, Allen Iverson SG, Carmelo Anthony SF, Kenyon Martin PF, and Marcus Camby C. It has been rare for this starting lineup to be quick off the tip-off, and this game was no exception. The Raptors got off to a small but clear 15-10 lead half way through the 1st quarter. Since at least the start of 2008, the Nuggets have almost always looked clunky offensively and inept defensively in the early going, and it has often taken until J.R. Smith comes in before the juices start flowing and the offense shifts into high gear. The Nuggets made only 1 assist in the first 9 minutes of the game.

The Nuggets looked downright sleepy during an 8-2 Raptors run late in the 1st, before Smith came in; it was 23-14 Raptors with about 3 minutes left in the 1st. J.R. Smith finally came in at this juncture, ready to start cutting into the early Nuggets deficit as he has done in many games before.

With the score 35-18, Smith made his first three with less than a minute left in the 1st. Smith also drove to the hoop with a couple of seconds left on a fast break and was fouled and he made both free throws. Smith’s speed and intensity began to pick up the relatively sluggish and chronically unpredictable offense, and the uninspired defense, from the moment he came into the game. After Smith came in, the Nuggets stopped settling for jump shots too much and started cutting into the Toronto lead. After Smith went out late in the 2nd quarter, the Raptors started adding to their lead again.

Although Smith was no where near as successful in the 2nd half as he was in the 1st, he put the Nuggets on the right track offensively to eventually win this game. Meanwhile, Anthony Carter played poorly, both on offense and to some extent on defense. There is only so much magic you can get out of a player who has never been regarded a starter in the NBA until George Karl decided that everyone else was wrong.

I think I know another reason besides Smith not being in there why the Nuggets start badly almost every game. It’s because Carter is not a true starting PG in the NBA, and because Iverson uses the 1st quarter to feel everything out, including his team, the other team, and the referees, so that then he can decide how to divide his efforts between PG and SG the rest of the way. Iverson often looks strangely hesitant in the early going, which matches my theory.

At the half, it was 54-46 Raptors, as they shot 57% and the Nuggets only 41% in the 1st half. By the end of the game though, the Nuggets would almost catch the Raptors in shooting %, and they ended up beating the Raptors at their own game, three-point shooting, as they made 11/22 threes while Toronto only managed to make 8/24. Iverson was an amazing 5/8 from beyond the arc, and Smith was 2/4.

As the game went along, Kenyon Martin more and more put the Nuggets on the right track defensively. Martin was guarding Chris Bosh most of the time and his defending was outstanding. K-Mart’s shooting varies substantially from game to game, but overall it’s been outstanding this season as well. But the whole Nuggets squad came out in the 2nd half with defensive energy, while the Raptors were mostly standing around.

The Nuggets spent the whole 3rd quarter gradually eliminating the Raptors lead. Carmelo Anthony started hitting midrange jumpers, Iverson started hitting fade aways and making layups off picks, and J.R. Smith was busy doing “little things” like chasing down loose balls and taking a charge. It was 73-71 after three quarters.

Early in the 4th quarter, Iverson and the Nuggets in general started hitting a bunch of threes, which gave them an 85-80 lead with about 8 minutes to play. However, the Raptors scored the next 8, as the Nuggets overdid the three points shooting attempts. But Melo was still hitting, and with 5 1/2 minutes left, it was 89-88 Nuggets. Martin tied up Bosh with about 5 to play. Then Bosh was blocked by Martin, but committed his 5th foul by coming down on Bosh.

An Jose Calderon three with 3:45 left made it 95-94 Raptors. J.R. Smith was then way off on an extremely long three attempt. Calderon then tried another three and missed, and Martin snagged the rebound. Then with about 3 minutes to go, Carmelo Anthony jabbed stepped and moved in on SF Jamario Moon and made a sweet short jumper; it was 96-95 Nuggets. But then SG Anthony Parker from the left corner swished a three, for 98-96 Raptors with 2:36 left. Then Parker fouled Iverson, who made both free throws, which tied the game. Then Moon tried a three and missed. Then Iverson made a cross court pass to Melo, who was fouled by Jamario Moon. Melo made both free throws, so it was 100-98 Nuggets with 1:50 to go.

Late in the fourth quarter, it was all Nuggets, as Kenyon Martin led the almost total shut down of the easy to shut down Raptors offense. (See, it works the other way too sometimes.). The ultimate defensive highlight was when Kenyon Martin literally stole the ball away from Chris Bosh, who was dribbling too high on the baseline with 1:40 left. The Raptors would never recover from that. Iverson then passed to Melo in the left post, and Melo looked like he was going to shoot over Moon, but he changed his mind and fired back out to Iverson who was at the center of the three point arc. Iverson fired the dagger that killed the Raptors; it was 103-98 Nuggets with 1:17 left.

The Raptors were still confused offensively. That’s right, they didn’t have a playmaking identity, you know this stuff now. So Kenyon Martin himself intercepted an almost aimless pass by Parker near the paint and ran off on a fast break the other way. He was fouled and made 2 free throws, for 105-98 Nuggets with a minute to play. The Nuggets also got possession, because a clear path violation was called. Moon knocked the ball away from Carmelo Anthony, leading to a breakaway dunk, but the Nuggets were still leading 105-100 with 45 seconds to play. Then the Nuggets used most of the shot clock, and the Raptors defense broke down enough for Melo to get open moving into the paint for a running jumper, which iced the game. The fancy dragons were all dead and the Nuggets’ playoff hopes were still alive.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Monday, March 24 in Memphis to play the Grizzlies at 6 pm mountain time. The Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights, while the Grizzlies will not be. So the Grizzlies will enjoy both the home court and the extra rest advantages.

Ultimate Game Breakdown: Players: Mar. 23, 2008: Nuggets 109 Raptors 100

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-RAPTORS PLAYER RATINGS
Ratings of 50+ indicate superstar power performers.
Ratings of 40-49 indicate star power performers
Ratings of 30-39 indicate power performers.
Ratings of 20-29 indicate key role player performers.
Ratings of 10-19 indicate ordinary role player performers.
Ratings of 0-9 indicate unimportant players

NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 53.8 Season 41.4
Carmelo Anthony: Game 47.2 Season 39.2
Kenyon Martin: Game 26.3 Season 23.3
Marcus Camby: Game 21.4 Season 32.6
J.R. Smith: Game 20.7 Season 17.2
Anthony Carter: Game 10.9 Season 20.0
Eduardo Najera: Game 10.1 Season 13.2
Linas Kleiza: Game 8.9 Season 18.2
Chucky Atkins: Game 0.6 Season 8.9

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

RAPTORS PLAYER RATINGS
Chris Bosh: Game 38.7 Season 37.4
Jamario Moon: Game 37.2 Season 19.6
Jose Calderon: Game 33.0 Season 29.2
Anthony Parker: Game 23.3 Season 21.9
Andrea Bargnani: Game 22.4 Season 15.8
T.J. Ford: Game 20.5 Season 22.3
Rasho Nesterovic: Game 16.3 Season 14.0
Jason Kapono: Game 0.9 Season 11.3
Carlos Delfino: Game 0.6 Season 16.4

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
The most productive player on the court was Allen Iverson for the Nuggets, who was a superstar power performer. Carmelo Anthony was just behind the Answer and he was a star power performer for the Nuggets.

The Nuggets had no ordinary power performers, while the Raptors had 3 of those: Chris Bosh, Jamario Moon, and Jose Calderon.

In sum, among the 5 players who were power performers or better, the Raptors had 3 and the Nuggets had 2. But Iverson and Anthony were so extremely productive that combined together they practically equaled the combined production of Bosh, Moon, and Calderon.

For the Nuggets, the two most productive players ordinarily were not only the most productive in this game, but they were above their already sky high averages. Iverson was about 30% above normal to go into the stratosphere and Anthony was about 20% better than normal.

Key role player Kenyon Martin was about 1/10 better than normal and he made an incredible takeaway steal against Chris Bosh with very little time left in the game to help ice the game in favor of Denver. J.R. Smith was about 1/5 more productive than usual with moderate minutes.

But these four, Iverson, Anthony, Smith, and Martin, were the only 4 Nuggets who were more productive than usual in this game. 5 others were less productive than usual to one extent or another.

Power performer on the season Marcus Camby was only a little more than 60% as productive as usual. Ordinary role player Eduardo Najera was only about 75% as productive as usual.

Two other role players, Anthony Carter and Linas Kleiza, were way below normal; Carter was only about 55% as productive as usual and Kleiza was half as productive as usual.

In very limited minutes, Atkins was grossly less productive than normal although a normal has not really been established for him due to an extremely long injury absence.

Fortunately for the Nuggets, Iverson, Anthony, Martin and Smith stepped up enough to offset the serious down games of 5 other Nuggets.

By far the biggest upside for the Raptors was borderline key role player SF Jamario Moon, who by doubling his normal production became a power performer. The Raptors’ best player, high end power performer PF Chris Bosh, was almost exactly normal.

PG Jose Calderon, a borderline power performer, was about 1/10 more productive than usual, making him a definite power performer in this game. C Bargnani was about 40% more productive than usual, which made him a key role player for this game.. Key role player SG Parker was about 1/10 better than normal, while plain role player C Nesterovic was about 1/5 better than normal,

Key role player PG T.J. Ford was slightly below normal.

Lower level role players SF Kapono and SG Delfino were almost completely unproductive, which went a long way to causing the Raptors to lose this game. The Raptors had 6 important players above normal and only 1 important player slightly below normal. But they got almost nothing from either Kapono or Delfino, which hurt them a lot.

The Nuggets had 4 players above normal while the Raptors had 6. The Nuggets had 5 players below normal while the Raptors had only 2. But Iverson, Anthony, Martin, and Smith did some huge stepping up in this game to win it for the Nuggets.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-RAPTORS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.311
2. T.J. Ford, Tor 1.281
3. Allen Iverson, Den 1.251
4. Jose Calderon, Tor 1.031
5. Chris Bosh, Tor 0.921
6. Jamario Moon, Tor 0.907
7. J.R. Smith, Den 0.863
8. Andrea Bargnani, Tor 0.862
9. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.692
10. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.685
11. Rasho Nesterovic, Tor 0.652
12. Anthony Parker, Tor 0.630
13. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.561
14. Marcus Camby, Den 0.549
15. Anthony Carter, Den 0.495
16. Jason Kapono, Tor 0.069
17. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.086…Atkins played only 7 minutes.
18. Carlos Delfino, Tor 0.086…Delfino played only 7 minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The best player on the court was Carmelo Anthony and he was a star-plus. There were two other star-plus players, T.J. Ford for the Raptors and Allen Iverson for the Nuggets.

Since there were no ordinary stars, there were those 3 players who were stars or better, one Raptor and two Nuggets.

The Raptors had 3 outstanding players, Calderon, Bosh, and Moon, while the Nuggets had none.

Smith was very good for the Nuggets and Bargnani was very good for the Raptors.

Martin and Kleiza were mediocre for the Nuggets not counting their made you miss type defending. Nesterovic and Parker were mediocre for the Raptors.

Najera and Camby were poor for the Nuggets not counting their made you miss type defending.

Carter was very poor for the Nuggets.

There were 3 total disasters. Kapono for the Raptors was a total disaster in limited minutes. Delfino for the Raptors was a total disaster in very limited minutes. Atkins for the Nuggets was a total disaster in very limited minutes.

Among the 10 players who were mediocre or worse, the Nuggets had 6 and the Raptors 4. But with Iverson, Anthony, Martin, and Smith working their magic, the Nuggets snatched victory from the jaws of likely defeat.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown

J.R. Smith: +12
Linas Kleiza: +12
Eduardo Najera: +12
Marcus Camby: +9
Allen Iverson: +6
Carmelo Anthony: -1
Anthony Carter: -1
Kenyon Martin: -5

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 7, Team 0, Anthony 3, Atkins 0, Camby 0, Carter 0, Iverson 4, Kleiza 0, Martin 0, Najera 0, Smith 0

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 20, Anthony 4, Atkins 0, Camby 3, Carter 1, Iverson 3, Kleiza 2, Martin 5, Najera 1, Smith 1

Chucky Atkins played 7 minutes and was 0/1 for 0 points, and he made 1 assist.

Anthony Carter played 22 minutes and was 2/5 and 1/2 on 3’s for 5 points, and he made 2 assists, 2 rebounds, and 1 steal.

Marcus Camby played 39 minutes and was 1/4 and 3/4 from the line for 5 points, and he made 15 rebounds, 1 block, and 1 assist.

Eduardo Najera played 18 minutes and was 1/3 and 1/3 on 3’s for 3 points, and he made 3 assists and 3 rebounds.

Linas Kleiza played 13 minutes and was 1/4 and 1/4 on 3’s for 3 points, and he made 4 rebounds and 2 assists.

Kenyon Martin played 38 minutes and he was 4/8 and 2/2 from the line for 10 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, 2 steals, and 2 assists.

J.R. Smith played 24 minutes and was 5/12, 2/4 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 14 points, and he made 2 assists, 2 rebounds, and 1 steal.

Allen Iverson played for most of the game, 43 minutes, and he was 11/16, 5/8 on 3’s, and 9/11 on 3’s for 36 points, and he made 6 assists and 2 rebounds.

Carmelo Anthony played 36 minutes and was 14/28, 1/1 on 3’s, and 4/5 from the line for 33 points, and he made 7 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 assists.

Ultimate Game Breakdown: Coaching: Mar. 23, 2008: Nuggets 109 Raptors 100

PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 45%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 80%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 53%. However, at the same time the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, and there is no 9th playoff seed. By far the main way the Nuggets can make the playoffs is by beating out the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final seed in the West.

So it seems right now that the Warriors and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last playoff spot in the West. Both of them are considered likely to make the playoffs in statistical terms, but most likely one of them will fail to make the playoffs. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets to get the 8th spot.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to full speed, especially since George Karl is notorious for taking forever to work a player he is not sold on back into the rotation following an injury. So it’s still unknown whether Atkins is ready to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs, and whether Karl will give him enough minutes if he is ready. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a somewhat lower percentage chance than 53% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs, probably about 10% lower.

In summary, the Lakers, the Rockets, the Hornets, the Spurs, and the Jazz are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Suns are virtual locks. Dirk Nowitzki was injured during Sunday action and this shocking development will endanger the Mavericks playoff hopes, how much so will depend on the details of the injury, especially the amount of time that Nowitzki will be unavailable. The Warriors are favored over the Nuggets for the final, 8th spot. The Rockets have become total locks now, despite the loss of Yao Ming for the season, thanks to their 22-game winning streak. The Suns are still in some trouble, due to their poor trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their key early March wins at home over the Spurs and the Warriors.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 58-24
2. Rockets 55-27
3. Hornets 55-27
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Suns 54-28
6. Spurs 53-29
7. Mavericks 52-30
8. Warriors 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 50-32

The Warriors are now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last playoff spot. Golden State has a slightly more difficult schedule than the Nuggets do the rest of the way, making this race extremely close and too close to call. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far and there are two games left.

Now that the Nuggets are 1 1/2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are very likely out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain slightly more likely to make the playoffs than do the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are a little more likely than the Warriors to get the last spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

At this point the odds for whether the Nuggets will make the playoffs are still close to 50%, creating the maximum possible drama. It is going to be a very close call. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 8-4 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 7-5 will probably not be good enough and 6-6 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 9-3 in their last 12 games.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is extremely unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 8%. The odds that the Utah Jazz will win the Northwest are 92% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: He suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. He remains probable for upcoming games.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 36 straight games. He is out until at least April, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

RAPTORS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Jorge Garbajosa: Ankle and leg injury; out for the season.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 24, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREY ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
None.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
NOTICE: THIS SECTION NEW AND IMPROVED as of March 19, 2008
EXTREME PLAYING TIME DECISIONS CONSTITUTING AN ERROR
At any given time, Karl may be doing one or more of the following:

1. He may be imposing a draconian penalty by completely benching a player who should not be benched unless the Nuggets want to shoot themselves in the foot or the head.
2. He may be severely under playing a player, either due to an excessive penalty for some mistake the player has made, a miscalculation of the benefits and costs of that player, or due to subjective factors up to and including extreme dislike of a player and a desire to make sure that the player is removed from the team in the off-season.
3. He may be over playing and over relying on one or more very experienced and talented veterans. At the same time, he will be approximately the most stingy Coach in the League with respect to playing time allocated to non-starters.

The new system we will use will employ the ranges of playing time minutes that are considered reasonable for the Nuggets. These are plenty large enough ranges to allow for plenty of coaching discretion, but if the playing time is outside of these ranges, it is clearly a coaching error:

Allen Iverson: 32-42
Carmelo Anthony: 32-42
Marcus Camby: 28-38
Kenyon Martin: 28-38
J.R. Smith: 22-34
Linas Kleiza: 16-28
Eduardo Najera: 16-24
Chucky Atkins: 14-22
Anthony Carter: 12-20
Yakhouba Diawara: 0-16
Taurean Green: 0-10
Steven Hunter: 0-10

Playing times lower than the minimum or higher than the maximum are coaching errors, and are charged at the rate of 1 alert system point for each 2 minutes of error. If a player is injured or sick to any extent, then this rule does not apply. Nor will the rule apply in games in which there is garbage time, except in the case of players who are playing well below their minimum minutes on a heavily repeated basis.

EXTREME PLAYING TIMES CONSTITUTING COACHING ERROR FOR THIS GAME:

Chucky Atkins: Underplayed, 4 points
Linas Kleiza: Underplayed, 2 points

Anthony Carter: Overplayed, 1 point
Allen Iverson: Overplayed, 1 point
Marcus Camby: Overplayed, 1 point

This toll is a moderate for Karl 9 points; it can get much worse than this, up to about 35 alert points.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this could be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, usually reduces the damage. But Iverson does not control everything of course, and the lack of any real consistency in how the offense is run leads to damaging problems that can appear at any time. But these problems are much more likely to appear just when the Nuggets can least afford them, when they are playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Carmelo Anthony to some extent and Anthony, one of the top two scorers on the team, was not getting the ball enough. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. But the problem has shown signs of coming back again lately. If that problem appears when the Nuggets are playing an elite team, the Nuggets’ chances of winning the game go down substantially. The problem recently appeared in the March 18 Pistons game, and it helped to cause the Nuggets to lose.

Another big problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the main playmaker in the game: Iverson, Carter, Atkins, or some combination. More importantly, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. If Iverson has decided to run the point, as he always does to one extent or another, he counts as a point guard whether he is labeled one by the coaching staff or not.

In general, and as always in the Karl era, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. True, they have plays they commonly run on the fly, but the players obviously don’t know about them in advance; they happen randomly. The offense is pretty much an unscripted, recreation department pick-up game style of offense.

How good of a defense you have is determined more by effort and skill than by strategy. For defense, strategy and tactics are less important than on offense. But they are still important, especially in a close game versus a good team. One thing that determines how well a team can defend is whether it has matched up the best and most appropriate players to guard the various offensive threats of the other team. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The correct choice usually will vary during each game. The decision is frequently made on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. But despite the fact that strategy and tactics are relatively important, the most important things with respect to defending is overall effort, hustle, anticipation of where the play is going, skill in avoiding unnecessary fouls, and ability to rotate off screens and picks.

This games’ toll due to the lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 6

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 2 Points.

TOTAL ALERT PROBLEM POINTS: 31, which constitutes GREY ALERT.

GREY ALERT (30-44): There are relatively minor problems leading to a small threat against the success of the entire season. It is still possible to beat quality teams, but it will be more unusual to beat a quality team, because about 1/4 of what would have been wins against good teams will now be losses. There should be no impact with respect to medium and poor teams.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
The description of the alert status the Nuggets are in is a worst case scenario one; it assumes that the other team is in GREEN or NO alert. All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. We use 15 alert status points as constituting one unit of difference.

OBSERVATIONS ON NUGGETS STATUS
The toll from players playing above the reasonable maximum or below the reasonable minimum was relatively light. J.R. Smith played so well Friday night in New Jersey and was playing so well in this game also that it was not possible for Karl to short his minutes like he usually does. For one thing, he would have been looked at as being insane by the assistant coaches had he done that in this game. The general offensive problem ticked up a little in importance, assists were sparse and the team dangerously lacked an offensive identity. But the Raptors lacked one also, as PF Chris Bosh made too many assists for the overall good of the team.

Atkins has been removed from the unusual player slump designation. The best news of the month for the Nuggets is that Atkins has, in effect, finally arrived in Denver. This might give the Nuggets just enough 3-point shooting firepower to keep up with the Warriors in the race for the final playoff spot, as long as Atkins gets playing time.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but that never happened. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. However, since all other injuries are history, and since J.R. Smith has played so well that he is neither benched nor severely shortchanged of minutes these days, the Nuggets might be able to stay in the NO alert to GREY alert range, avoiding being disadvantaged to all but the lucky and perfectly managed elite teams.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do

OUTSIDE FACTORS
Home Court Advantage: 4 Points
Extra Rest Advantage, if any: 4 Points
Lower Alert Level: 1 Point for each 4 Points of lesser alert level
Nothing to Play for due to Circumstances: As circumstances warrant.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The Raptors had just 1 relatively unimportant player unavailable, and they have last year’s Coach of the Year, so it is believed that their alert status was high NO Alert or low GREEN alert. The Raptors were therefore about 1 alert level or 15 points better off than the Nuggets, which constitutes about a 4-point advantage. The Raptors were home, giving them another 4-point edge or so. Neither team was playing on back to back nights. The Raptors were favored by about 8 points due to outside factors. The Nuggets won the game by 9, and we can confidently say that the Nuggets were playing so well that it would have been a full scale rout were it not for the outside factors.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Raptors 9
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Raptors 8

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 20
Raptors Non-Starters Points: 21

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 9
Raptors Non-Starters Rebounds: 3

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 8
Raptors Non-Starters Assists: 7

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
There was no garbage time. Both coaches were relatively light on using non-starters in this game. Both Coaches played 8 players for 10 minutes or more, and 9 players for 6 minutes or more.

It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. That he did so for several games in a row recently seems too good to be true now. In this game, Karl partly failed to meet his responsibility to see if Chucky Atkins can be readied for the last few games and the playoffs. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery and when Karl refused to name Iverson as the official point guard. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently even Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs. So Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs and in the stretch run to make the playoffs for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter still has to play a lot of minutes also.

The Raptors’ non-starters won a 1-point victory over the Nuggets’ non-starters 21-20. The Nuggets’ non-starters heavily out rebounded the Raptors’ non-starters 9-3. Although the Nuggets lacked playmaking identity, so did Toronto, and at least the Nuggets’ non-starters had a very unusually large number of assists, and they 1 more assist than did the Raptors’ non-starters.

STARTERS
Points: Nuggets 89 Raptors 79
Rebounds: Raptors 38 Nuggets 32
Assists: Raptors 20 Nuggets 13

The Nuggets starting five beat the Raptors starters 89-79. But the Raptors’ starting five out rebounded the Nuggets starters 38-32 and they were ahead of the Nuggets starters in playmaking by 20-13.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines