Drowning in a River of Tears, The Denver Nuggets as of Spring 2011, Part One

Marcus Camby was traded away for nothing during and mostly because of the economic panic and he is long gone. Allen Iverson is long gone; he doesn't even play in the country anymore, but instead he plays in Turkey. Carmelo Anthony is recently gone. Chauncey Billups went with him despite being a Colorado legend and despite the fact he hated to leave. The best Nuggets of the last five-seven years have been slipping away one by one, in most cases long before their best playing days are over. The Nuggets have completely failed to hold on to their superstars.

Now among current Nuggets Raymond Felton, the young and outstanding true superstar point guard who was one of the players the Nuggets got from the Knicks for Carmelo, has warned repeatedly that he will likely want out of Denver if he can’t start at point guard for the Nuggets. And as you will find out in this Part, he most likely will NOT be able to start for the Nuggets. Kenyon Martin, who knows a playoff wipe-out when he sees one, and so he ripped into George Karl the other day for not ordering Kevin Durant to be doubled in the first two games of the 2011 first round series in Oklahoma versus the Thunder, is obviously not at all happy. And then there is J.R. Smith, who has the ultimate mother lode of reasons to be dissatisfied with Nuggets coaching, adding to this mix his warning that he will probably want out of Denver this summer.

Neither Kenyon Martin nor J.R. Smith is under contract for 2011-12. Felton is under contract for next year but he most likely is going to push to get out of Denver as soon as possible regardless. So when those three complain about George Karl’s and the Nuggets’ playoff collapse and/or about not getting earned playing time and/or about not starting, it could very easily lead to either one, two, or all three of them demanding out of Denver in the off-season coming up.

Are the Nuggets going to be able to get good replacements for Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith, and/or Ray Felton? Most likely not, especially when you remember that the blue chip managers that the Nuggets had who from about 2005 through 2009 built a very high quality roster WERE FIRED during the 2010 off season.

Although we have to wait and see whether Raymond Felton, Kenyon Martin and/or J.R. Smith do in fact get out of Denver, the bottom line at the moment is that Denver is to one extent or another coming apart at the seams. If you thought the unraveling was going to be limited to just the five players swept away in the Carmelo trade you were wrong to one extent or another.

A massive trade, especially one forced by a superstar who wants out, is sort of like an earthquake; there are aftershocks that can easily lead to more dislocations. After a massive trade it can in some cases be years before a team settles down and is all on the same page and acting as a completely unified and tight organization. In the “aftershock years” the team will often not be completely unified and when it is not that team will generally be easily beaten in the playoffs. Being unified and tight is one of the preconditions needed to reliably win in the playoffs.

George Karl’s failure to earn the trust and loyalty of Carmelo Anthony (and of course his inability to coach well in the playoffs) is the root cause of the earthquake. The details about that are found in Reports already produced and there is supposed to be another Report on the subject within a few months.

You know that cheap pair of pants made in Malaysia or some other $1 an hour country you bought at Wal-Mart that started unraveling at the seams not long after you bought it? That’s the Denver Nuggets as of right now; the Nuggets are coming apart at the seams. And you better not wear those just about to completely rip apart pants in public, laugh out loud.

Wait a minute, all of this unraveling is getting a little too extensive to keep track of without assistance, so let’s look at it player by player:

RECENTLY DEPARTED NUGGETS
CARMELO ANTHONY
He’s already gone of course. This superstar was dissatisfied with Nuggets’ coaching and real playoff prospects. (Thanks, Carmelo, and I do mean it very sincerely, for believing what Quest for the Ring (QFTR) teaches. QFTR has already started to and will continue to help the Knicks every way we can to get the Knicks in the best position to win The Quest for the Ring.

New rule: one player’s actions are worth 100,000 visits from the general public. So there you go, QFTR is a high traffic site, laugh out loud.

CHAUNCEY BILLUPS
This aging superstar point guard nearing retirement is already gone. Billups wanted to remain in Denver because he is from Colorado and likes it there, and he had no major problem with Karl as Karl liked him, but Billups was swept away in the Carmelo trade like debris in a storm.

RENALDO BALKMAN
This oversized small forward or undersized power forward is already gone. Unless brain dead, Balkman was dissatisfied with Nuggets’ coaching because in BOTH 2009-10 and 2010-11 he was not allowed to play except in garbage time despite all kinds of evidence from 2008-09 and prior that he is at least a very good / solid starter, well above average type of NBA forward.

ANTHONY CARTER
He is an already gone older, retiring soon point guard who was swept away in the Carmelo trade.

SHELDEN WILLIAMS
He is an already gone power forward who was a slightly below average power forward in his last playing time with the Nuggets; he was swept away in the Carmelo trade.

OUTSTANDING NUGGETS PLAYERS NOT YET GONE BUT THREATENING TO LEAVE
KENYON MARTIN
He is a power forward who had one of his best years ever in 2010-11 with a .926 Real Player Rating which is in the superstar range. At the moment Martin is disgusted with George Karl’s inability to come up with a way to contain Kevin Durant for even one single game. This isn't the first time Martin has gotten ticked off about Karl in the playoffs, by the way. There was a major argument between the two about six years ago that led to Martin being benched the details of which are outside the subject of this Report.

Martin is not under contract for 2011-12 (so he is a free agent I presume) and so obviously he may be leaving the Nuggets during the 2011 off season to finish his career elsewhere. He’s 33 years old and given that and how well he played he could easily have between two and four more productive years elsewhere.

RAYMOND FELTON
He is a high quality point guard who understands, respects, and produces on the court the all important point guard concept needed for one thing to win you playoff games. Felton came over from the Knicks in the Carmelo Anthony trade. As mentioned at the start, Felton has repeatedly warned that he will be attempting to get out of Denver as soon as possible if he can’t start at point guard. QFTR has repeatedly stated that Felton is completely correct in his assessment that he should start in Denver and that he is completely correct in his proposed solution. We do so yet again here.

But George Karl prefers to start Ty Lawson over Raymond Felton. Lawson is a quality point guard also and QFTR has stated so extensively. But QFTR just produced the Nuggets’ 2010-11 Real Player Ratings and they show that Felton was a much better player than Lawson was for the Nuggets in 2010-11. Felton played for the Nuggets only in the last third of the season so Lawson produced more because he was a Nugget all season long. But the ratings just calculated (and to be published here no later than in late June or very early July) show that Felton played at a level right at the borderline between superstar and historic superstar since arriving from New York:

Raymond Felton: 1.004: borderline between superstar and historic superstar
Ty Lawson: .851: star

The gap between Felton and Lawson turned out to be much, much greater than I thought it was going to be. Again, Lawson is a very good young point guard with a very, very promising future. His ratings will likely get higher in future years. But Felton is clearly the better of the two right now and clearly is somewhat more true to the all-important point guard concept than Lawson is right now. If your point guard doesn’t want to make as many plays as possible who is going to want to, the man on the moon? The bottom line is that Felton should start for the Nuggets over Lawson and it should be Lawson plotting to leave the Nuggets and not Felton. To be absolutely clear: if the Nuggets lose Felton and keep Lawson they will be worse off than if they lose Lawson and keep Felton. And this is true even though both of them are quality point guards.

Moreover, no point guard playing at Felton’s level should ever be just a back-up point guard. So Felton needs to follow in Carmelo Anthony’s and probably J.R. Smith’s footsteps and get out of Denver as soon as possible. There are many teams who are starting point guards much below Felton’s level, including for example the Miami Heat.

Furthermore, the real situation is most likely even worse than Felton thinks it is. George Karl is an institution in Denver and is basically worshipped by the ownership and by much of the press, specifically including the Denver Post. More broadly, Karl is often worshipped to one extent or another by national television broadcasters and journalists. Karl’s coaching contract has recently been renewed so he is going to remain in his role of winning a few extra regular season games and then mostly imploding in the playoffs for the next three years (through 2014) at a minimum. And yes, QFTR will continue to point out along every step of the way every mistake he makes in the regular season and especially in the playoffs.

So George Karl isn’t going anywhere regardless of how soundly the Thunder thrash the Nuggets in round one 2011. He was never going anywhere regardless of how badly he did in the playoffs. George Karl getting thrashed in the playoffs is par for the course in Denver and I know it may seem hard to believe but playoff implosions are accepted by ownership and even among some of the fan base since in their way of thinking Karl offsets this by producing very good to excellent regular season results year after year. I myself think that trade-off is goofy; what you want is a coach who wins a few extra regular season games AND can win in the playoffs. They do exist, you know.

But the Nuggets are owned by one of the richest pro sports team owners of them all. Men such as him always want even more money. And maybe his accountants have calculated that more money can be made by ensuring a really good regular season (with Karl) and then letting whatever little disaster happens in the playoffs happen. After all, the potential ticket and merchandise sales for regular season games must be much greater than the total potential ticket and merchandise sales for even a long playoff run. When money trumps sports, winning as the number one objective may fairly quickly be tossed out the window. So therefore, perhaps his accountants have informed the owner of the Nuggets that even if Karl can't coach well in the playoffs it is nevertheless a good idea to have him as coach from a financial perspective since Karl year after year produces a fairly smoothly run team that wins a few extra games in the long and profitable regular season.

The thing point guard Raymond Felton may not yet realize is that Karl does not rely only on basketball performance to decide who starts and to decide playing times. He rates personalities of players and if, for example, he decides that he likes Ty Lawson’s personality more than Raymond Felton’s personality there is nothing that Felton is going to be able to do about that because no one can change their personality to any significant extent. Karl grossly overestimates the magnitude of and how direct the connection is between personalities and basketball results. He thinks that “stronger personalities” (whatever they are) produce better results on the basketball court.

Know this and remember it: there is no evidence to back up this belief. Championships and playoff wins in general do NOT depend in any way on how “tough” or “good” the personalities of the players are. QFTR strongly teaches to ignore personalities and to look at actual performance on the basketball court when making playing time and starting decisions.

But what Karl thinks goes in Denver. Therefore, any player on the short end of the stick in the George Karl personality sweepstakes should attempt to get out of Denver as soon as possible.

To be absolutely clear: based on Karl’s extensive track record regarding decisions of this nature (and based on QFTR knowledge of how Karl thinks) Lawson will indefinitely and probably always start over Felton; Karl will most likely NEVER change his mind regardless of how much better Felton actually is than Lawson. Between that and just how great Felton actually was in 2010-11, Felton is even more correct than he thinks he is when he believes that getting out of Denver is a very good course of action for him to take. Either Felton gets out of Denver or his career will suffer, possibly as much as that of J.R. Smith.

J.R. SMITH
The J.R. Smith story is so interesting and so important that QFTR is making it part 2 of this “Nuggets Drowning in a River of Tears” Series. Part Two will be posted either one or two days after this part (Part One). And there will likely be a Part Three as well within a week or so. Part Three will explain exactly why and how the Thunder dismantled the Nuggets in the 2011 first round.

You get the idea? This river of tears is one heck of a long and twisting river.

WHY THIS SONG AND WHY THIS REPORT SERIES?
The Nuggets’ story in recent years is a very, very sad story indeed. Words can hardly convey how sad the story is. I honestly feel like I am drowning in a river of tears just from telling it and this isn’t the first time. To cover every last sad thing would take a book. I know that great players have been made frustrated and sad and that is the ultimate failure of any organization, or any country for that matter-that great people in it are frustrated and sad.

But it could have been even worse. For one thing, at least it seems that J.R. Smith has not been completely ruined. And you never know, sadness sometimes leads to anger and anger sometimes, finally leads to actions that finally make things better.

But as the song asks, “How long must this go on?” Well, I’ll tell you one thing, QFTR will be there for as long as it lasts and then beyond as long as it lasts. And we will never quit telling you what really is going on in basketball and we will never quit telling you about exactly how Championships are won and lost.

But right now, as we watch the Nuggets implode in the playoffs and we think about all of the Nuggets who have already left and as we watch in the Denver Post and so forth the procession of players expressing frustration and warning about leaving, let’s check out the new Denver Nuggets theme song. This new theme song replaces “Like a Rolling Stone” by Bob Dylan. The Nuggets are transitioning from a rolling stone type of team to a river of tears type of team.

First we’ll see the lyrics of the new Nuggets theme song and then we’ll hear the song.

For an interesting and appropriate experience, reread or at least skim over this Report while the song is playing; seldom does a song fit so tightly to a story. The Nuggets are nothing if not a sad story. I know personally they have made me very, very sad over the years; they have indeed produced a river of tears along with a river of basketball opportunities squandered. Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby all gone, just to name a few. When the best players seldom if ever retire on a team they have played their best for, something is seriously wrong with the management of the franchise.

RIVER OF TEARS LYRICS
Singer: Eric Clapton

It's three miles to the river
That would carry me away,
And two miles to the dusty street
That I saw you on today.

It's four miles to my lonely room
Where I will hide my face,
And about half a mile to the downtown bar
That I ran from in disgrace.

Lord, how long have I got to keep on running,
Seven hours, seven days or seven years?
All I know is, since you've been gone
I feel like I'm drowning in a river,

Drowning in a river of tears.
Drowning in a river.
Feel like I'm drowning,
Drowning in a river.

In three more days, I'll leave this town
And disappear without a trace.
A year from now, maybe settle down
Where no one knows my face.

I wish that I could hold you
One more time to ease the pain,
But my time's run out and I got to go,
Got to run away again.

Still I catch myself thinking,
One day I'll find my way back here.
You'll save me from drowning,
Drowning in a river,
Drowning in a river of tears.
Drowning in a river.
Feels like I'm drowning,
Drowning in the river.
Lord, how long must this go on?

Drowning in a river,
Drowning in a river of tears.
DENVER NUGGETS THEME SONG
ERIC CLAPTON: DROWINING IN A RIVER OF TEARS
ALBUM VERSION


DENVER NUGGETS THEME SONG
ERIC CLAPTON: DROWINING IN A RIVER OF TEARS
LIVE JAPAN CONCERT VERSION


Always remember, it's not whether you cry or not that is important but what you cry about and what you do about it after you cry that's important. Peace and wins to you all.

Chicago Bulls Final Real Player Ratings, 2010-11 Season

CHICAGO BULLS FINAL REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2010-11 Season
Congratulations and respect are due to DERRICK ROSE who lead the Bulls in quality basketball in 2010-11.

Congratulations and respect are due to DERRICK ROSE who produced more than any other player on the Bulls in 2010-11.

KEY PLAYERS (above the NBA average)
MAJOR HISTORIC SUPER STARS
DERRICK ROSE

HISTORIC SUPER STARS
None

SUPER STARS
CARLOS BOOZER
JOAKIM NOAH
RONNIE BREWER

STARS--WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTERS
C.J. Watson
Luol Deng
Taj Gibson

VERY GOOD PLAYERS--SOLID STARTERS
Kurt Thomas

MAJOR ROLE PLAYERS--GOOD ENOUGH TO START
Omer Asik
Kyle Korver

AVAILABLE PLAYERS
KEY (ABOVE AVERAGE) PLAYERS DEFINITELY NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PLAYOFFS
None

TOTAL NUMBER OF ABOVE AVERAGE PLAYERS AVAILABLE AS OF NOW FOR THE PLAYOFFS: 10

BEST BY SIDE OF COURT
BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Derrick Rose

BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Ronnie Brewer

CHICAGO BULLS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
--Final 2010-11 Regular Season Ratings
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players
--The hidden defending adjustment, which is necessary for a full evaluation of defense, is included for all players rated

Derrick Rose 1.169
Carlos Boozer 0.970
Joakim Noah 0.948
Ronnie Brewer 0.904
C.J. Watson 0.899
Luol Deng 0.890
Taj Gibson 0.887
Kurt Thomas 0.798
Omer Asik 0.730
Kyle Korver 0.708
Keith Bogans 0.637

SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.820 0.899
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.760 0.819
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.640 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.580 0.639
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.520 0.579
Poor Player / Should never start 0.460 0.519
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.459
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399

AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.

Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700

To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:

Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645

PLAYOFF GRADE PLAYERS
Playoff Grade Players have ratings of .560 and higher. Players with ratings below .560 should not play in the playoffs unless the team is forced to play them so that they have two players at a position and/or so that the team has at least eight players playing in the playoffs and/or because the coach is absolutely certain the low rating player will play better in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. Many primary contenders to win the Championship will have no player at all playing whose Rating is below .600.

CHICAGO BULLS REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
--Final 2010-11 Regular Season Ratings
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real basketball production of players
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown

Derrick Rose 3537.12
Luol Deng 2855.13
Carlos Boozer 1825.66
Ronnie Brewer 1609.52
Taj Gibson 1545.70
Joakim Noah 1493.64
Kyle Korver 1168.24
C.J. Watson 981.19
Kurt Thomas 940.02
Keith Bogans 930.86
Omer Asik 721.52

=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ===============
CHICAGO BULLS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
--Final 2010-11 Regular Season Ratings
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players' offense

Derrick Rose 0.766
Carlos Boozer 0.475
Joakim Noah 0.437
Kyle Korver 0.417
Luol Deng 0.416
C.J. Watson 0.413
Ronnie Brewer 0.315
Taj Gibson 0.305
Keith Bogans 0.278
Kurt Thomas 0.237
Omer Asik 0.160

THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385

CHICAGO BULLS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
--Final 2010-11 Regular Season Ratings
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players' defending
--The hidden defending adjustment, which is necessary for a full evaluation of defense, is included for all players rated

Ronnie Brewer 0.589
Taj Gibson 0.582
Omer Asik 0.570
Kurt Thomas 0.561
Joakim Noah 0.511
Carlos Boozer 0.495
C.J. Watson 0.486
Luol Deng 0.474
Derrick Rose 0.403
Keith Bogans 0.359
Kyle Korver 0.291

THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315

The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.

THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.

Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

ABOUT REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:

--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating

These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.

There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.

In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.

QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.

During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.

These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.

Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).

Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.

After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.

If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.

This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.

So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.

Los Angeles Lakers Final Real Player Ratings, 2010-11 Season

LOS ANGELES LAKERS FINAL REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2010-11 Season
Congratulations and respect are due to PAU GASOL who lead the Lakers in quality basketball in 2010-11.

Congratulations and respect are due to PAU GASOL who produced more than any other player on the Lakers in 2010-11.

KEY PLAYERS (above the NBA average)
MAJOR HISTORIC SUPER STARS
PAU GASOL

HISTORIC SUPER STARS
ANDREW BYNUM
KOBE BRYANT
LAMAR ODOM

SUPER STARS
None

STARS--WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTERS
None

VERY GOOD PLAYERS--SOLID STARTERS
Shannon Brown
Matt Barnes

MAJOR ROLE PLAYERS--GOOD ENOUGH TO START
None

AVAILABLE PLAYERS
KEY (ABOVE AVERAGE) PLAYERS DEFINITELY NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PLAYOFFS
None

TOTAL NUMBER OF ABOVE AVERAGE PLAYERS AVAILABLE AS OF NOW FOR THE PLAYOFFS: 6

BEST BY SIDE OF COURT
BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Kobe Bryant

BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Andrew Bynum

LOS ANGELES LAKERS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
--Final 2010-11 Regular Season Ratings
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players
--The hidden defending adjustment, which is necessary for a full evaluation of defense, is included for all players rated

Pau Gasol 1.138
Andrew Bynum 1.085
Kobe Bryant 1.067
Lamar Odom 1.009
Shannon Brown 0.786
Matt Barnes 0.783
Ron Artest 0.690
Luke Walton 0.661
Steve Blake 0.627
Derek Fisher 0.624

SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.820 0.899
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.760 0.819
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.640 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.580 0.639
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.520 0.579
Poor Player / Should never start 0.460 0.519
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.459
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399

AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.

Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700

To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:

Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645

PLAYOFF GRADE PLAYERS
Playoff Grade Players have ratings of .560 and higher. Players with ratings below .560 should not play in the playoffs unless the team is forced to play them so that they have two players at a position and/or so that the team has at least eight players playing in the playoffs and/or because the coach is absolutely certain the low rating player will play better in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. Many primary contenders to win the Championship will have no player at all playing whose Rating is below .600.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
--Final 2010-11 Regular Season Ratings
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real basketball production of players
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown

Pau Gasol 3456.92
Kobe Bryant 2966.05
Lamar Odom 2663.10
Ron Artest 1662.81
Andrew Bynum 1627.27
Derek Fisher 1434.12
Shannon Brown 1232.51
Steve Blake 992.04
Matt Barnes 798.99
Luke Walton 319.98

=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ===============
LOS ANGELES LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
--Final 2010-11 Regular Season Ratings
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players' offense

Kobe Bryant 0.697
Pau Gasol 0.624
Lamar Odom 0.522
Andrew Bynum 0.454
Shannon Brown 0.386
Matt Barnes 0.385
Derek Fisher 0.288
Ron Artest 0.288
Steve Blake 0.262
Luke Walton 0.200

THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385

LOS ANGELES LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
--Final 2010-11 Regular Season Ratings
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players' defending
--The hidden defending adjustment, which is necessary for a full evaluation of defense, is included for all players rated

Andrew Bynum 0.630
Pau Gasol 0.514
Lamar Odom 0.487
Luke Walton 0.461
Ron Artest 0.402
Shannon Brown 0.400
Matt Barnes 0.398
Kobe Bryant 0.370
Steve Blake 0.365
Derek Fisher 0.336

THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315

The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.

THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.

Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

ABOUT TEAM REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:

--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating

These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.

There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.

In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.

QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.

During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.

These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.

Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).

Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.

After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.

If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.

This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.

So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.

Current Major Contenders and Finals Projections Going Into the 2011 Playoffs

This post is a week late since it should have been posted just before the 2011 playoffs began. It's much better a little late then never. What's to blame? The usual: a lot of other work and way too much babysitting of the IRS and of other organizations which are proving themselves to be very disturbingly incompetent lately. It's not only George Karl who is in way over his head, laugh out loud. 

Aside from free form reporting in text Reports, Quest for the Ring (QFTR) has three types of formatted Reports it ueses to convey to the public who the best teams in pro basketball are. The three are (1) Real Team Ratings, (2) Current Major Contenders and Finals Projections, and (3) the Main QFTR Banner that you see at the top when you visit QFTR.  Here is what you get with each look at the best basketball teams:

REAL TEAM  RATINGS
This is the heavy duty "king of the hill" team rating system which employs state of the art knowledge and technology to reveal how all 30 pro NBA teams stack up with respect to how well they will most likely do in playoff games. These ratings are supposed to come out about once a month during the regular season starting at the end of December. Despite heavy pressure on our time, QFTR was able to produce a Real Team Ratings (RTR) Report  not long before the 2011 playoffs started, on March 26 to be exact. Technically, a RTR Report should be produced when the regular season is completely over. Within the next month (two months?) QFTR will probably produce a final end of regular season Real Team Ratings Report for 2011 (late as usual laugh out loud).

CURRENT MAJOR CONTENDERS AND FINALS PROJECTIONS
This type of Report consists of two primary components: the breakdown of the top contenders and the finals projections.

For the breakdown of top contenders, the top five teams in each conference are identified and broken down based primarily on Real Team Ratings but also on QFTR knowledge about factors that can not possibly be fully reflected in the RTR system.

These other impossible to accurately quantify "wild card" factors in order of importance are:

--Injuries
--Coaching, especially how  some coaching works better in the playoffs than in the regular season and vice versa
--QFTR expectations about how some players will play better or worse in the playoffs as compared to the regular season

So "Current Major Contenders" is where QFTR takes the Real Team Ratings as a base and makes a few changes based on high level knowledge that can not (yet anyway) be part of the RTR system.

The other component to "Current Major Contenders and Finals Projections" is, you guessed it, finals projections. What a surprise!

In general QFTR does not predict specific playoff series; see below for some reasons we don't. But QFTR does project Conference and NBA Finals results throughout both the regular season and the playoffs, often long before it is even known for sure which teams will be in those finals. We do so only with disclaimers. We certainly don't "guarantee" our projections for the reasons listed above and discussed in some detail below and nor will be issuing any apologies if we are wrong unless we were wrong due to our own faulty knowledge.

"THE SITUATION" TYPE REPORTS
This is simply a Current Major Contenders and Finals Projections Report where open commentary is added after the breakdowns and the projections. So this type of Report has a formatted section and a non-formatted section; it is a hybrid. In general "Situation Reports" are among the most useful and informative Reports that QFTR ever does; try not to miss any of them. QFTR will try its best to produce more of these in the future. But unfortunately, due to ever present production time limitations and due to the many types of Reports QFTR produces, Situation Reports are going to probably be like gold: hard to find but very valuable when you do see one.

THE MAIN QFTR BANNER
Sometime within the next few months QFTR will produce a new User Guide that will explain exactly how we produce the QFTR Main Banner. Some details will be left to that Guide but here is a quick summary right here and now.

On the banner there are three team logos and/or team flags in two columns. The column on the left is for the West Conference and the column on the right is for the East Conference.

There are two "sets of rules" for the banner, one set in effect starting in December or at the latest on January 1 each year and running until the Championship is completed in June and the other set of rules running from that time in June until sometime in December.

DECEMBER-JUNE BANNER
During this time of the year, the two teams on the top of the two conference columns are the two that QFTR thinks are most likely to reach the Championship coming up in June. The teams just below those are the two teams most likely to take their place if the top team loses out due to one or more injuries or due to unexpected bad coaching or due to unexpected bad player performance. And then the third teams in each column are the ones which have the best chance of reaching the Championship should both of the teams above them falter in one of the ways just described.

Between December and June this "projection banner" can be changed at any time but we generally don't change it more than once a month at the most during the regular season. But after certain playoff upsets there may be an immediate need for a quick emergency banner change!

Sometimes we simply can't change the banner exactly when we want to because we can't come up with the time to do so.  For example, we finally had the time to make a banner change on April 18, 2011 that we wanted to make back around April 1. The Chicago Bulls overtook the Boston Celtics as the most likely East Champion due to the bad trade Boston made on the one hand and due to the historic superstar point guard performance of Derrick Rose (of the Bulls) and the extremely strong defending of the Chicago Bulls on the other hand.

JUNE-DECEMBER BANNER
In June when the Championship is over the banner changes from predicting the upcoming Championship to reflecting the actual results of it. Since there are no projections to change, this banner is locked in until December. That is, the banner that runs between late June and sometime in December reflects what actually happened  and so it does not change (unless there is a graphical redesign). For this banner, the actual Conference Champions (who met in the Championship) are at the top. Under them are the two teams that reached the Conference Finals but lost there. On the third row, for each Conference, QFTR uses it's knowledge, data, and judgment to choose the better among the two teams which won a playoff series in round one but lost in round two (the semifinals). (There are always going to be exactly two teams in each conference and four in total which win a first round series and then lose in the second round.)

Note that teams that lose in the first round can not possibly appear on the June-December banner. At the opposite extreme, all four teams which won two playoff series and that reached the Conference Finals automatically appear in the top two rows. Among the four teams which won one and only one playoff series (two in each conference) two of them appear on the bottom row. Overall, six of the sixteen teams that made it into the playoffs will show on the banner.

Aside from perhaps going over the above in slightly more detail, the complete "User Guide to the QFTR Banner" will explain how we determine which players and coaches appear on the banner.

Now that you are familiar with the three ways that QFTR informs the public about which are the best pro basketball teams, here is the final "Current Major Contenders" for the 2010-11 season. In other words, here is how the top five teams of each conference stacked up going into the 2011 playoffs. If you click a team you will visit a page which gives you a great summary of who is doing what on that team. (But sorry, you won't find Real Player Ratings there; stay tuned for those to appear at QFTR as always). 

CURRENT MAJOR CONTENDERS as of April 11, 2011
THE EAST
Main Primary Contender: Chicago Bulls
Alternate Primary Contender: Boston Celtics
Wild Card: Miami Heat
Big Long Shot: Orlando Magic
Extreme Long Shot: Philadelphia 76'ers

THE WEST
Main Primary Contender: Los Angeles Lakers
Alternate Primary Contender: San Antonio Spurs
Wild Card: Oklahoma Thunder
Big Long Shot: Dallas Mavericks
Extreme Long Shot: New Orleans Hornets

CONFERENCE AND LEAGUE FINALS PROJECTIONS AS OF APRIL 11, 2011
2011 NBA EAST FINAL
Chicago Bulls over Boston Celtics 4-2

2011 NBA WEST FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers over San Antonio Spurs 4-2

2011 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP
Los Angeles Lakers over Chicago Bulls 4-3

Remember, both the Current Major Contenders and the Finals Projections will be wrong if any of the following happen. These three "wild card" factors are listed in order of likelihood:

--One or more significant injuries not already known about as of the date of this posting
--Bad or good coaching not already known about as of the date of this posting
--Unexpected player performances not already anticipated

 Based on extensive QFTR custom data and research, playoff upsets occur as follows:

--Total of all Upsets: 24.6% of all playoff games and series are upsets

--Upsets Due to Injuries: 48.7% of all upsets which is 12.0% of all playoff games and series
--Upsets Due to Coaching: 35.1% of all upsets which is 8.6% of all playoff games and series
--Upsets Due to Players: 16.2% of all upsets which is 4.0% of all playoff games and series.

Always remember that the Current Major Contenders breakdown and the Finals projections are based on everything known including all KNOWN injuries, all KNOWN coaching factors, and any anticipated player performance surprises strongly expected to come true. Unknown injuries, unknown coaching factors, and/or unknown/unexpected player performance factors will cause the breakdown and the projections to be wrong.

Other than predicting the Conference Finals and the Championship with the disclaimers just made, QFTR intentionally does NOT publicly attempt to predict the outcome of all of the playoff series even though, if we did, we would be able to "show off" by predicting some (but not all) of the upsets. We intentionally choose not to use our "power" in this way because there is actually little to be gained in doing so and because the last thing we want to do is attract people who bet money on basketball games to QFTR. We are already fairly inundated with the wrong people coming to QFTR, thank you very much Google. (But at least Google is attracting people in general to QFTR. Now they just have to work on getting the RIGHT people to QFTR!)

While if we predicted all of the playoff series QFTR would generally be more accurate than anyone else, we would still be wrong about series where any of the three factors previously described go into effect. It would be juvenile to "show off" by publicly correctly predicting an upset or two every year which, however, we could do if we wanted to. We do privately predict most or all of the series and yes, it's true, we do correctly predict some of the playoff upsets.

Having said all of that, QFTR will from time to time not be able to avoid the temptation to predict a playoff series within a text Report. Text reports are where QFTR is free to report information about basketball to you without being subject to any specific format. Most new ground is broken in text reports and if we had the right people coming to QFTR they would be reading those reports at least as often as looking at the formatted and statistical reporting. By contrast, this Report is a formatted Report where the objective and the format are pre-programmed. QFTR can not "go off the reservation" in a formatted Report.

Similarly, when playoff series are over, QFTR will sometimes in a text Report boast about how it privately predicted a playoff series upset.

Always remember that those who read QFTR text Reports are always rewarded with information you can't get in any of the QFTR formatted Reports.

Never bet money on basketball games due to the unpredictability of factors described above.