Real Team Ratings as of March 26, 2011: The Ratings Say the Championship will be Lakers-Bulls

REAL TEAM RATINGS
2010-11 Season As of March 26, 2011

--See Sub Rating notes below for some information about how these ratings are calculated.

--But see the overall User Guide for Real Team Ratings for complete details about why Real Team Ratings are the best possible ratings and for complete details about how they are calculated.

1 Chicago Bulls 85.70
2 Boston Celtics 69.27
3 Los Angeles Lakers 68.79
4 San Antonio Spurs 63.19
5 Dallas Mavericks 56.78
6 Miami Heat 49.98
7 Orlando Magic 46.57
8 Denver Nuggets 31.42
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 27.99
10 New Orleans Hornets 26.42
11 Memphis Grizzlies 24.17
12 Portland Trail Blazers 24.11
13 Philadelphia 76ers 17.61
14 Houston Rockets 7.10
15 Atlanta Hawks-2.16
16 Phoenix Suns -8.87
17 New York Knicks -12.36
18 Los Angeles Clippers -13.50
19 Milwaukee Bucks -13.63
20 Charlotte Bobcats -14.75
21 Utah Jazz -14.78
22 Indiana Pacers -16.74
23 New Jersey Nets -32.89
24 Golden State Warriors -34.65
25 Detroit Pistons -43.80
26 Toronto Raptors -48.19
27 Sacramento Kings -53.85
28 Minnesota Timberwolves -67.55
29 Cleveland Cavaliers -70.33
30 Washington Wizards -75.38

PROJECTED 2011 CHAMPIONSHIP BASED STRICTLY ON REAL TEAM RATINGS
Los Angeles Lakers versus Chicago Bulls

PROBABILITIES FOR LIKELY CHAMPIONSHIPS
According to details in the User Guide about how to evaluate the ratings, if the Lakers have home court advantage, the Bulls have about a 60% chance of winning a Bulls-Lakers Championship series. If the Bulls have home court advantage, the Bulls have about an 80% chance of winning the series.

If it ends up being Bulls-Spurs, the Bulls would have about a 70% chance of winning that series if the Spurs had home court advantage and the Bulls would have about a 90% chance of winning that series if they had home court advantage.

If it ends up being Celtics-Lakers, whichever team has home court advantage will have about a 55% chance of winning the series. This is a complete toss-up. A series such as this will be decided by injuries, the coaching, and whichever team plays better in the actual games.

If the Championship ends up being Celtics-Spurs, if the Spurs have the home court advantage it will be a complete toss-up and it would be decided by injuries, the coaching, and whichever team plays better in actual games. If the Celtics have the home court advantage, which is extremely unlikely, they would have about a 65% chance of winning the series.

What about the conference championships, the semifinals, and the first round series? We don’t have the time or space to list probabilities for every possible series, but you can do that yourself. See the full User Guide to Real Team Ratings or at least see Section Four excerpted from the full Guide in the last part of this Report below all the sub ratings.

========== REAL TEAM RATINGS SUB RATINGS ==========
For each team there are seven sub ratings that when combined together give you the overall Real Team Ratings (that are near the beginning of this Report). If you check the sub ratings below you can find out in detail the playoffs strengths and weaknesses of the teams. Included are some limited but important notes from the User Guide. For full understanding and details the complete User Guide must be consulted.

EFFICIENCY SUB RATING
2010-11 Season As of March 26, 2011

1 Chicago Bulls 24.30
2 Miami Heat 23.40
3 Los Angeles Lakers 21.00
4 Boston Celtics 19.80
5 San Antonio Spurs 19.80
6 Orlando Magic 18.30
7 Denver Nuggets 14.40
8 Dallas Mavericks 14.10
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 11.40
10 Houston Rockets 6.30
11 New Orleans Hornets 6.00
12 Portland Trail Blazers 6.00
13 Memphis Grizzlies 5.70
14 Philadelphia 76ers 5.10
15 New York Knicks 0.60
16 Atlanta Hawks -0.60
17 Phoenix Suns -0.90
18 Milwaukee Bucks -3.90
19 Indiana Pacers -4.80
20 Utah Jazz -5.40
21 Los Angeles Clippers -9.30
22 Golden State Warriors -9.60
23 Charlotte Bobcats -13.20
24 Detroit Pistons -13.20
25 Sacramento Kings -16.80
26 Minnesota Timberwolves -18.00
27 New Jersey Nets -18.30
28 Toronto Raptors -20.40
29 Washington Wizards -26.40
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -32.70

USER GUIDE NOTES FOR THE ABOVE SUB RATING
--For purposes of RTR this sub rating is calculated as three times the difference between offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

--Efficiency is how many points scored (or for defense how many given up) per 100 possessions.

--Note that teams can have the same net efficiency with very different team makeups and/or strategies. For example, a team with a mediocre offense but the best defense in the League could have the same exact net efficiency as a team with the best offense in the League but only a mediocre defense.

--Net efficiency is the best single measure of exactly how good a basketball team potentially is and to a large degree how good it actually is. Therefore, this sub rating carries big weight toward overall Real Team Ratings. However, knowing how good the team will actually be in the playoffs requires other sub ratings.

--See the User Guide to Real Team Ratings for complete details regarding this sub rating.

PERFORMANCE VERSUS THE GOOD AND VERSUS THE BEST TEAMS SUB RATING
2010-11 Season As of March 26, 2011

1 Chicago Bulls 31.70
2 San Antonio Spurs 29.09
3 Los Angeles Lakers 25.89
4 Boston Celtics 24.37
5 Dallas Mavericks 19.38
6 New Orleans Hornets 15.72
7 Denver Nuggets 14.32
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 14.29
9 Memphis Grizzlies 11.77
10 Miami Heat 11.08
11 Orlando Magic 10.37
12 Portland Trail Blazers 7.41
13 New York Knicks 5.74
14 Philadelphia 76ers 1.61
15 Houston Rockets -2.70
16 Los Angeles Clippers -3.10
17 Charlotte Bobcats -3.25
18 Utah Jazz -3.88
19 Toronto Raptors -5.29
20 Atlanta Hawks -7.06
21 Phoenix Suns -7.47
22 Indiana Pacers -7.84
23 Golden State Warriors -8.15
24 New Jersey Nets -11.69
25 Milwaukee Bucks -12.83
26 Sacramento Kings -13.35
27 Detroit Pistons -14.50
28 Cleveland Cavaliers -20.13
29 Washington Wizards -20.28
30 Minnesota Timberwolves -23.25

--See the User Guide to Real Team Ratings for complete details regarding this sub rating.

MOST RECENT GAMES SUB RATING
2010-11 Season As of March 26, 2011

1 Chicago Bulls 15
2 Los Angeles Lakers 13
3 Dallas Mavericks 13
4 San Antonio Spurs 9
5 Oklahoma City Thunder 9
6 Miami Heat 9
7 Portland Trail Blazers 9
8 Denver Nuggets 7
9 Memphis Grizzlies 7
10 Orlando Magic 7
11 Houston Rockets 7
12 Boston Celtics 5
13 Philadelphia 76ers 5
14 Phoenix Suns 3
15 New Orleans Hornets -3
16 Atlanta Hawks -3
17 Indiana Pacers -3
18 New York Knicks -5
19 Los Angeles Clippers -5
20 Charlotte Bobcats -5
21 Golden State Warriors -5
22 Milwaukee Bucks -5
23 New Jersey Nets -7
24 Detroit Pistons -7
25 Sacramento Kings -9
26 Utah Jazz -11
27 Toronto Raptors -11
28 Cleveland Cavaliers -13
29 Minnesota Timberwolves -13
30 Washington Wizards -17

USER GUIDE NOTES FOR THE ABOVE SUB RATING
--This sub rating over weights the most recent performance: from the most recent 25 games.

--It reflects momentum, playoff motivation, and morale.

--It substantially but indirectly and inexactly reflects the current injury situations
.
--It partially, indirectly, and inexactly reflects the likelihood that coaching strategies and tactics will work or not in the playoffs.

--The last five games of the Regular Season are ignored due to playoff coaches resting key players and due to other distortions.

--See the User Guide to Real Team Ratings for complete details regarding this sub rating.

GENERAL DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
2010-11 Season As of March 26, 2011

1 Boston Celtics 5.8
2 Chicago Bulls 5.4
3 Orlando Magic 5.0
4 Milwaukee Bucks 4.6
5 Miami Heat 4.2
6 New Orleans Hornets 3.8
7 Los Angeles Lakers 3.4
8 San Antonio Spurs 3.0
9 Philadelphia 76ers 2.6
10 Dallas Mavericks 2.2
11 Memphis Grizzlies 1.8
12 Indiana Pacers 1.4
13 Portland Trail Blazers 1.0
14 Atlanta Hawks 0.6
15 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.2
16 Charlotte Bobcats -0.2
17 Denver Nuggets -0.6
18 New Jersey Nets -1.0
19 Los Angeles Clippers -1.4
20 Sacramento Kings -1.8
21 Houston Rockets -2.2
22 Phoenix Suns -2.6
23 New York Knicks -3.0
24 Utah Jazz -3.4
25 Washington Wizards -3.8
26 Minnesota Timberwolves -4.2
27 Golden State Warriors -4.6
28 Detroit Pistons -5.0
29 Cleveland Cavaliers -5.4
30 Toronto Raptors -5.8

USER GUIDE NOTES FOR THE ABOVE SUB RATING
--The general defensive sub rating is a relatively small but important adjustment that slightly to moderately modifies the ratings of teams according to where they rank defensively (the better the defense, the better for the playoffs).

--Since many playoff series feature teams with very similar ratings, even a small general defensive adjustment can flip the predicted winner from one team to the other.

--Aside from being a sub rating, this shows you exactly how the NBA teams rank defensively.

--See the User Guide to Real Team Ratings for complete details regarding this sub rating.

PAINT DEFENDING SUB RATING
2010-11 Season As of March 26, 2011

1 Orlando Magic 5.8
2 Boston Celtics 5.4
3 Chicago Bulls 5.0
4 Milwaukee Bucks 4.6
5 New Orleans Hornets 4.2
6 Miami Heat 3.6
7 Indiana Pacers 3.6
8 Charlotte Bobcats 3.0
9 Los Angeles Lakers 2.6
10 Atlanta Hawks 2.2
11 Memphis Grizzlies 1.8
12 New Jersey Nets 1.4
13 Los Angeles Clippers 0.8
14 Utah Jazz 0.8
15 Portland Trail Blazers 0.2
16 San Antonio Spurs -0.2
17 Denver Nuggets -0.6
18 Dallas Mavericks -1.0
19 Philadelphia 76ers -1.6
20 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.6
21 Cleveland Cavaliers -2.2
22 Detroit Pistons -2.6
23 Washington Wizards -3.0
24 Phoenix Suns -3.4
25 Golden State Warriors -3.8
26 Oklahoma City Thunder -4.2
27 Houston Rockets -4.6
28 Sacramento Kings -5.0
29 New York Knicks -5.4
30 Toronto Raptors -5.8

USER GUIDE NOTES FOR THE ABOVE SUB RATING
--Defense is a little more important in the playoffs than it is in the regular season; At the same time, in the playoffs, paint defending (aka interior defending aka down low defending) is more important than perimeter defending (aka outside defending).

--See the User Guide to Real Team Ratings for complete details regarding this sub rating.

QUALITY OF OFFENSE SUB RATING
2010-11 Season As of March 26, 2011

1 Boston Celtics 5.8
2 Dallas Mavericks 5.4
3 Utah Jazz 5.0
4 Atlanta Hawks 4.6
5 Houston Rockets 4.2
6 Phoenix Suns 3.8
7 Los Angeles Clippers 3.4
8 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.0
9 Philadelphia 76ers 2.6
10 New Jersey Nets 2.2
11 Chicago Bulls 1.6
12 Charlotte Bobcats 1.6
13 San Antonio Spurs 1.0
14 Portland Trail Blazers 0.6
15 Toronto Raptors 0.0
16 Denver Nuggets 0.0
17 Los Angeles Lakers -0.6
18 New Orleans Hornets -1.0
19 Golden State Warriors -1.4
20 Detroit Pistons -1.8
21 New York Knicks -2.2
22 Orlando Magic -2.6
23 Milwaukee Bucks -3.0
24 Oklahoma City Thunder -3.4
25 Minnesota Timberwolves -3.8
26 Washington Wizards -4.4
27 Indiana Pacers -4.4
28 Miami Heat -5.0
29 Sacramento Kings -5.4
30 Memphis Grizzlies -5.8

USER GUIDE NOTES FOR THE ABOVE SUB RATING
--Quest for the Ring is in the process of developing innovative quality of offense performance measures. Since these are not yet finalized and since even if they were there is no existing data bank for them, we now use for the Quality of Offense sub rating a sophisticated performance measure that is available on the Internet. We use the percentage of field goals that are assisted, which is going to closely track our custom designed measures and be a rough summary for them. For the sake of efficiency, we may indefinitely use this if we continue to think in the future that this measure strongly and reliably tracks what we are identifying.

--See the User Guide to Real Team Ratings for complete details regarding this sub rating.

PACE ADJUSTMENT SUB RATING
2010-11 Season As of March 26, 2011

1 Miami Heat 3.7
2 Dallas Mavericks 3.7
3 Los Angeles Lakers 3.5
4 Boston Celtics 3.1
5 Utah Jazz 3.1
6 Orlando Magic 2.7
7 Chicago Bulls 2.7
8 Charlotte Bobcats 2.3
9 Philadelphia 76ers 2.3
10 Milwaukee Bucks 1.9
11 Memphis Grizzlies 1.9
12 New Jersey Nets 1.5
13 San Antonio Spurs 1.5
14 Atlanta Hawks 1.1
15 Los Angeles Clippers 1.1
16 New Orleans Hornets 0.7
17 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.7
18 Detroit Pistons 0.3
19 Cleveland Cavaliers 0.1
20 Toronto Raptors 0.1
21 Portland Trail Blazers -0.1
22 Washington Wizards -0.5
23 Houston Rockets -0.9
24 Phoenix Suns -1.3
25 Indiana Pacers -1.7
26 Golden State Warriors -2.1
27 Sacramento Kings -2.5
28 Denver Nuggets -3.1
29 New York Knicks -3.1
30 Minnesota Timberwolves -3.7

USER GUIDE NOTES FOR THE ABOVE SUB RATING
--The pace of a basketball team is the number of possessions it gets on average per game.

--Teams that run a lot of fast breaks and/or take shots early in the 24 second shot clocks have fast paces, and vice versa.

--The pace adjustment is a small but valid adjustment that slightly modifies the ratings of teams according to the effects of pace on ability to win playoff games.

--The best pace is a little below the League average pace.

--This sub rating has been improved. Beginning with 2010-11, optimum pace is to be the 20th fastest (or in other words the 10th slowest) team in the League. The further from that a team is the lower the pace sub rating. The lowest rating possible is for the team with the fastest pace. The slowest team in the League has a moderate pace sub rating rather than the highest rating as in prior years.

--See the User Guide to Real Team Ratings for complete details regarding this sub rating.

============ USING THE RATINGS AND THE USER GUIDE TO PREDICT THE PLAYOFFS ============
In full there are six sections to the complete User Guide for Real Team Ratings:

--Section One: Introduction
--Section Two: Discussion of the Seven Factors
--Section Three: Technical Discussion of the Seven Factors
--Introduction to Sections Four, Five and Six: How and When to use the Ratings and These Sections to Accurately Predict Playoff Series
--Section Four: Interpretation of Ratings and Predicting Playoff Series
--Section Five: Cautions
--Section Six: Manual Injury Adjustments

To predict the playoffs you need to interpret differences in ratings. Section Four is the primary section for interpreting ratings. But there are common circumstances where the Ratings and Section Four combined will NOT be enough for you or anyone else to be able to correctly predict a series. One or more injuries is the most common circumstance we are talking about here.

SECTION FOUR DOES NOT RELIABLY APPLY WHEN THERE ARE RECENT INJURIES
Section Four shown below fully applies only if there are no injuries that are not reflected in the Ratings. Early season injuries are mostly reflected in the Ratings. But the more recent the injury and the more important the player injured the less this injury will be reflected in Real Team Ratings. Whenever there is an injury (or trade) during or after January to an average or especially to an above average player, use of Real Team Ratings and Section Four alone is definitely not recommended. You can still however start with the Ratings and with Section Four and then make adjustments as discussed in Section Five and especially in Section Six.

The same warning applies when players, especially above average players, have been traded away from or on to a team.

In other words the warning to not rely only on the Ratings and Section Four applies whenever an average or above average player was available for much of the regular season but is not available for the playoffs. And it applies on the flip side: the warning applies whenever there is a new average or above average player available for the playoffs who was not available for much of the regular season.

Whenever the warning applies you either have to quit trying to predict the series or you have to use Section Five and/or Section Six along with Section Four (and the Ratings). That is, when the warning applies, you start with the Ratings and Section Four and then you make any adjustments called for in Sections Five and/or Six.

NBA PLAYOFF SERIES UPSETS BROKEN DOWN
Besides injuries there are two other factors that can not be included in Real Team Ratings that are sometimes involved in a series and that sometimes cause an upset to occur. These three factors leading to upsets are summarized and broken down as follows:

--Total of all Upsets: 24.6% of all playoff games and series are upsets

--Upsets Due to Injuries: 48.7% of all upsets which is 12.0% of all playoff games and series

--Upsets Due to Coaching: 35.1% of all upsets which is 8.6% of all playoff games and series

--Upsets Due to Players: 16.2% of all upsets which is 4.0% of all playoff games and series.

Section Five of the User Guide (NOT shown below) concentrates on these three factors that cause upsets that are not now and may never ever be includable in Real Team Ratings. Section Six covers in detail how you adjust ratings for injuries, which as you can see is the biggest factor that is not included in the Ratings. There is a full adjustment procedure and a newer, quick adjustment procedure that takes just a few minutes to do.

As for adjusting for coaching and player performance that is NOT already reflected in Real Team Ratings, QFTR does this in text reports since this is at the very heart of the mission of QFTR. We quantify everything that can be quantified but for some things that can not be quantified the only way we can get at them and the only way you can know about them is to read QFTR Reports.

Although complete quantification of the coaching factor (and for that matter the player motivation and specific performance factor) are not now and will probably never be possible, Real Coach Ratings have been developed to the point where if they are used in conjunction with Real Team Ratings you can come very close to full quantification and certainty. However, there is as of yet no formal and quantifiable way to combine the use of Real Coach Ratings with Real Team Ratings so as of now any user including QFTR itself must use a combination system that he or she creates and that he or she thinks is reasonable.

Upsets occur in about 1/4 or about 25% of all series. So the Ratings and Section Four that follows will accurately explain how to predict about 3/4 or about 75% of all playoff series. For the other 1/4 or 25%, Sections Five and Six of the complete User Guide are very useful and are often but not always enough for correctly predicting series.

INJURIES ARE LIKE WARNING FLAGS FOR UPSETS TO COME
If you know for sure that NO recent (recent is roughly considered to be during or after January) injuries to average and above average players are affecting a particular series, it is much more likely but still not guaranteed that the combination of the Ratings and Section Four will correctly predict the series. If on the other hand there are one or more substantial injuries involved, especially ones occurring during or after January, the Ratings and Section Four become much less useful and in general can no longer be used to correctly predict the series.

The probabilities in Section Four below are hedges for coaching factors NOT included in Real Team Ratings and for player performance in the playoffs above or below "what it should be." These probabilities in no way shape or form take into account injuries. In other words, Section Four and the probabilities in Section Four assume no injuries to average or above average players. To be more precise, they assume that every player who was available for much of the regular season is still available for the playoffs.

With all of that said here now is Section Four of the User Guide to Real Team Ratings:

=====SECTION FOUR: INTERPRETATION OF RATINGS AND PREDICTING PLAYOFF SERIES=====
RTR can obviously used to see exactly how well or poorly teams are set up for the NBA playoffs. Note that teams with negative RTRs are roughly the very same teams who do not qualify to play in the playoffs. Beyond this, using RTR to predict particular playoff series is a very useful thing. When you see playoff series turning out in accordance with RTR, you will see that RTR is valid. The best way to use RTR to predict playoff series is as follows.

You start with Real Team Ratings (RTR) as reported here at QFTR and the first thing you do next is to add seven points to the ratings of the teams with home court advantage. You can stop right there and by using the Interpretation scales (just below) you will already have very good predictions for series where no major injuries are involved.

Were it not for injuries Real Team Ratings alone would correctly predict the outcome of most playoff series (about 90% of them). But if one or more significant injuries are involved RTR alone becomes much less valuable for predicting results. If you have the time and you want to be more accurate you need do the full method manual injury adjustments as needed. There is a new shortcut manual injury adjustment which does not take much time to do at all. See the final section of this Guide, Section Six: Manual Injury Adjustments.

After you have adjusted the RTRs for home court and for injuries, you then compare them for the two teams playing and find out what the difference is. Finally you can now use either the "quick prediction scale" just below and/or you can use the descriptions in the "detailed guide" that you will see below the quick prediction scale.

QUICK PREDICTION SCALE FOR PLAYOFF SERIES
0 to 6.9 Complete toss-up: flip a coin
7 to 13.9 Roughly 60% chance the higher team will win
14 to 20.9 Roughly 70% chance the higher team will win
21 to 27.9 Roughly 79% chance the higher team will win
28 to 34.9 Roughly 87% chance the higher team will win
35 to 41.9 Roughly 94% chance the higher team will win
42 to 48.9 Roughly 97% chance the higher team will win
49 to 55.9 Roughly 99% chance the higher team will win
56 or more Roughly 100% chance the higher team will win

DETAILED GUIDE TO INTERPRETATION OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TEAMS IN REAL TEAM RATINGS
In the detailed interpretation guide that follows, the word "roughly" is repeatedly used in front of the probability numbers, as reminders of the small amount of unavoidable statistical error and to emphasize that unknown factors, including injuries, especially injuries for which no manual adjustment has been made, will in some cases result in substantially different actual probabilities. Whether or not you are doing manual injury adjustments, do not forget to add seven or at least six points to the RTRs of the teams that have home court advantage. Injury adjustments are highly recommended unless neither of the teams have significant injuries. The probability percentages in both the quick chart above and in the descriptions below are based on historical results in the NBA.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 0 AND 6.9
The series is a complete toss-up when statistical error is considered. There is a strong possibility of a 7 game series. The higher team has a 50% to 55% chance of winning, depending on what exactly the difference is. These probabilities are too low for anyone to have any confidence in using RTR to say who will win. All series of this type are decided quite simply by who plays better, by who coaches better, or both.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 7.0 AND 13.9
The series can easily go either way, although the higher team has a small edge, and has between a 55% to 65% chance of winning, depending on where in the range the difference is. There is a very substantial chance of a 7-game series. If the lower team wins, it is a small upset. Slight differences in the quality of coaching, certain players playing a little better or a little worse than they did in the regular season, or both could be responsible for an upset at this level.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 14.0 AND 20.9
The series can go either way and this type of difference gives a significant chance for a 7-game series. But the higher team has a clear edge. The higher team has between a 65% and a 75% probability of winning, depending on where in the range the difference is. If the lower team wins, it is a moderate upset. Slight differences in the quality of coaching, certain players playing a little better or a little worse than they did in the regular season, or both could be responsible for an upset at this level.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 21.0 AND 27.9
The higher team has roughly between a 75% to 85% probability of winning, depending on where in the range the difference is. There is a chance, but only a small one, for a 7-game series. If the lower team wins, it is a fairly big upset. Coaches, certain players, or both could be responsible for an upset at this level.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 28.0 AND 34.9
The higher team has roughly between an 85% to a 93% probability of winning, depending on where in the range the difference is. In this kind of series, often the only way the lower team can win the series is by extending the series out to 7 games and then somehow winning the 7th game, thus taking the series 4 games to 3. However, it is not uncommon, assuming there is an upset in this type of series, for the lower team to so severely disrupt the favored team that the lower team upsets the higher, favored team 4 games to 2. Whichever way it does it, if the lower team does win coming in down by this amount, it should be considered a major upset. In many such cases, the coaching would have to be very wrong and/or negligent.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 35.0 AND 41.9
The higher team has roughly between a 93% and a 97% probability of winning depending on where in the range the difference is. In this kind of series, often the only way the lower team can win the series is by taking the series 7 games and winning the 7th game, thus taking the series 4 games to 3. However, there have been a tiny number of series where a team with this amount of a RTR deficit has won the series by so severely disrupting the favored team that it is able to win the series 4 games to 2. In the vast majority of such cases, the coaching for the higher team was severely wrong and/or negligent. Whether accomplished in 6 games or 7, the lower team winning despite being this far behind in RTR is extremely rare, and would be considered a very major and very surprising upset.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 42.0 AND 48.9
The higher team has roughly between a 97% and a 99% probability of winning, depending on where in the range the difference is. Obviously, an upset would be extremely rare, shocking, and historical. It would in most cases be caused substantially by incompetent and/or severely negligent coaching or by one or more major injuries. With this amount of difference, any upset would almost certainly have to be with the series going all seven games.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS 49.0 AND 55.9
The higher team has a roughly 99% probability of winning the series. Obviously, an upset would be extremely rare, shocking, and historical. It would in most cases be caused substantially by incompetent and/or severely negligent coaching or by one or more major injuries. With this amount of difference, any upset would almost certainly have to be with the series going all seven games.

DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS 56.0 OR MORE
It is close to a 100% certainty that the higher team will win the series. Obviously, an upset would be extremely rare, shocking, and historical. It would in the vast majority of cases be caused substantially by incompetent and/or severely negligent coaching. With this amount of difference, any upset would almost certainly have to be with the series going all seven games.