2011 EAST CONFERENCE FINAL CHICAGO BULLS VS MIAMI HEAT GAME TWO REAL PLAYER RATINGS
MAY 18 2011
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
MIAMI HEAT 85 CHICAGO BULLS 75
BEST OF SEVEN SERIES TIED 1-1
KEY PLAYERS WHO DID NOT PLAY
--These are the above average players who would have or should have played but did not.
--The reason is shown after the player if and only if it is known with at least 85% certainty.
--Usually the reason is known with almost 100% certainty.
--If the reason is not known with at least 85% certainty, the reason "unknown" is given.
--Injuries are NEVER perfectly reported and information about them is archived nowhere on the Internet. Therefore, it is possible that when Quest for the Ring identifies "coaching error" or "unknown" as the reason, the real reason may have been an injury.
--If the reason "traded" is shown then in many cases a player who was obtained in that trade played instead.
BULLS
--C.J. Watson played only 6 minutes due to the coach following the one point guard on the court at a time guideline and due to PG Derek Rose being an historical superstar justifying 42 minutes playing time for him.
--Kurt Thomas did not play due to apparent coaching error.
HEAT
--Eddie House did not play due to apparent coaching error.
--Mario Chalmers played only 5 minutes due to apparent coaching error.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Real Player Rating shows you the real basketball quality of players quickly and accurately.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--Each player's hidden defending rating from the regular season is used as the Hidden Defending Adjustment (HDA). Obviously, players in any individual game including this one were not exactly as good defenders as they were on the average during the regular season. But since there is no way to provide HDA for individual games and since it is better to have some reasonable HDA than none at all, we use the season HDA as a reasonable substitute.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Ronnie Brewer, SG 1.491 BULLS
Udonis Haslem, PF 1.112 HEAT
Dwyane Wade, SG 1.051 HEAT
LeBron James, SF 1.035 HEAT
Derrick Rose, PG 0.805 BULLS
Carlos Boozer, PF 0.792 BULLS
Taj Gibson, PF 0.792 BULLS
Mike Miller, SG 0.712 HEAT
Joakim Noah, C 0.675 BULLS
Chris Bosh, PF 0.659 HEAT
Luol Deng, SF 0.422 BULLS
Mike Bibby, PG 0.375 HEAT
Joel Anthony, C 0.233 HEAT
Keith Bogans, SG 0.218 BULLS
Omer Asik, C 0.212 BULLS
Kyle Korver, SG 0.150 BULLS
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.200 and more
Historic Super Star 1.080 1.199
Super Star 0.960 1.079
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.860 0.959
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.780 0.859
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.779
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.620 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.540 0.619
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.460 0.539
Poor Player / Should never start 0.380 0.459
Very Poor Player 0.300 0.379
Extremely Poor Player 0.299 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real basketball production (or quantity) of players.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown; as described above hidden defending ratings from the regular season are used.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
LeBron James, SF 47.60 HEAT
Dwyane Wade, SG 42.05 HEAT
Derrick Rose, PG 33.83 BULLS
Chris Bosh, PF 27.68 HEAT
Udonis Haslem, PF 25.57 HEAT
Ronnie Brewer, SG 23.86 BULLS
Joakim Noah, C 21.61 BULLS
Carlos Boozer, PF 21.39 BULLS
Luol Deng, SF 19.42 BULLS
Taj Gibson, PF 16.63 BULLS
Mike Bibby, PG 13.13 HEAT
Mike Miller, SG 12.81 HEAT
Joel Anthony, C 5.12 HEAT
Omer Asik, C 3.60 BULLS
Keith Bogans, SG 3.48 BULLS
Kyle Korver, SG 2.70 BULLS
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME ===============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' offense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is not a part of the offensive sub rating.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Udonis Haslem, PF 0.759 HEAT
Ronnie Brewer, SG 0.569 BULLS
Dwyane Wade, SG 0.554 HEAT
Derrick Rose, PG 0.530 BULLS
LeBron James, SF 0.521 HEAT
Joakim Noah, C 0.333 BULLS
Taj Gibson, PF 0.315 BULLS
Mike Miller, SG 0.278 HEAT
Mike Bibby, PG 0.273 HEAT
Chris Bosh, PF 0.231 HEAT
Carlos Boozer, PF 0.151 BULLS
Kyle Korver, SG 0.150 BULLS
Luol Deng, SF 0.098 BULLS
Keith Bogans, SG -0.021 BULLS
Joel Anthony, C -0.106 HEAT
Omer Asik, C -0.251 BULLS
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' defense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is included as described above.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Ronnie Brewer, SG 0.922 BULLS
Carlos Boozer, PF 0.641 BULLS
LeBron James, SF 0.514 HEAT
Dwyane Wade, SG 0.497 HEAT
Taj Gibson, PF 0.477 BULLS
Omer Asik, C 0.463 BULLS
Mike Miller, SG 0.434 HEAT
Chris Bosh, PF 0.428 HEAT
Udonis Haslem, PF 0.353 HEAT
Joakim Noah, C 0.343 BULLS
Joel Anthony, C 0.338 HEAT
Luol Deng, SF 0.324 BULLS
Kyle Korver, SG 0.279 BULLS
Derrick Rose, PG 0.275 BULLS
Keith Bogans, SG 0.239 BULLS
Mike Bibby, PG 0.102 HEAT
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.
Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
ABOUT REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:
--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating
These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it and where there may be no time for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.
There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.
During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.
These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.
Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).
Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.
After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.
If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.
This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.
So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Real Player Ratings for the 2011 East Conference Final Game One: Chicago Bulls 103 Miami Heat 82
2011 EAST CONFERENCE FINAL CHICAGO BULLS VS MIAMI HEAT GAME ONE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
MAY 15 2011
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
CHICAGO BULLS 103 MIAMI HEAT 82
CHICAGO LEADS BEST OF SEVEN SERIES 1-0
KEY PLAYERS WHO DID NOT PLAY
--These are the above average players who would have or should have played but did not.
--The reason is shown after the player if and only if it is known with at least 85% certainty.
--Usually the reason is known with almost 100% certainty.
--If the reason is not known with at least 85% certainty, the reason "unknown" is given.
--Injuries are NEVER perfectly reported and information about them is archived nowhere on the Internet. Therefore, it is possible that when Quest for the Ring identifies "coaching error" or "unknown" as the reason, the real reason may have been an injury.
--If the reason "traded" is shown then in many cases a player who was obtained in that trade played instead.
BULLS
Kurt Thomas did not play due to apparent coaching error.
HEAT
Eddie House did not play due to apparent coaching error.
Udonis Haslem did not play due to injury.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Real Player Rating shows you the real basketball quality of players quickly and accurately.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--Each player's hidden defending rating from the regular season is used as the Hidden Defending Adjustment (HDA). Obviously, players in any individual game including this one were not exactly as good defenders as they were on the average during the regular season. But since there is no way to provide HDA for individual games and since it is better to have some reasonable HDA than none at all, we use the season HDA as a reasonable substitute.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
C.J. Watson, PG 1.901 BULLS
Chris Bosh, PF 1.295 HEAT
Carlos Boozer, PF 1.260 BULLS
Luol Deng, SF 1.222 BULLS
Taj Gibson, PF 1.138 BULLS
Ronnie Brewer, SG 1.050 BULLS
Joakim Noah, C 1.017 BULLS
Derrick Rose, PG 0.951 BULLS
LeBron James, SF 0.895 HEAT
Dwyane Wade, SG 0.691 HEAT
Jamaal Magloire, C 0.647 HEAT
Joel Anthony, C 0.605 HEAT
Omer Asik, C 0.564 BULLS
Keith Bogans, SG 0.487 BULLS
Kyle Korver, SG 0.472 BULLS
James Jones, SF 0.354 HEAT
Mario Chalmers, PG 0.324 HEAT
Mike Bibby, PG 0.282 HEAT
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.200 and more
Historic Super Star 1.080 1.199
Super Star 0.960 1.079
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.860 0.959
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.780 0.859
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.779
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.620 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.540 0.619
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.460 0.539
Poor Player / Should never start 0.380 0.459
Very Poor Player 0.300 0.379
Extremely Poor Player 0.299 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real basketball production (or quantity) of players.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown; as described above hidden defending ratings from the regular season are used.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Luol Deng, SF 55.00 BULLS
Chris Bosh, PF 47.93 HEAT
LeBron James, SF 36.68 HEAT
Joakim Noah, C 36.61 BULLS
Derrick Rose, PG 36.15 BULLS
Carlos Boozer, PF 32.77 BULLS
Dwyane Wade, SG 26.97 HEAT
Taj Gibson, PF 26.18 BULLS
Ronnie Brewer, SG 19.96 BULLS
C.J. Watson, PG 19.01 BULLS
Joel Anthony, C 18.75 HEAT
James Jones, SF 8.49 HEAT
Kyle Korver, SG 8.03 BULLS
Mario Chalmers, PG 7.45 HEAT
Keith Bogans, SG 7.31 BULLS
Mike Bibby, PG 6.49 HEAT
Jamaal Magloire, C 6.47 HEAT
Omer Asik, C 6.20 BULLS
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME ===============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' offense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is not a part of the offensive sub rating.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
C.J. Watson, PG 1.334 BULLS
Chris Bosh, PF 0.888 HEAT
Carlos Boozer, PF 0.774 BULLS
Derrick Rose, PG 0.671 BULLS
Luol Deng, SF 0.578 BULLS
Taj Gibson, PF 0.574 BULLS
Ronnie Brewer, SG 0.454 BULLS
Joakim Noah, C 0.411 BULLS
LeBron James, SF 0.325 HEAT
Dwyane Wade, SG 0.254 HEAT
Kyle Korver, SG 0.228 BULLS
Keith Bogans, SG 0.191 BULLS
James Jones, SF 0.177 HEAT
Jamaal Magloire, C 0.170 HEAT
Mike Bibby, PG 0.120 HEAT
Mario Chalmers, PG 0.091 HEAT
Joel Anthony, C 0.047 HEAT
Omer Asik, C 0.022 BULLS
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' defense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is included as described above.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Luol Deng, SF 0.644 BULLS
Joakim Noah, C 0.606 BULLS
Ronnie Brewer, SG 0.596 BULLS
LeBron James, SF 0.570 HEAT
C.J. Watson, PG 0.567 BULLS
Taj Gibson, PF 0.564 BULLS
Joel Anthony, C 0.558 HEAT
Omer Asik, C 0.542 BULLS
Carlos Boozer, PF 0.487 BULLS
Jamaal Magloire, C 0.478 HEAT
Dwyane Wade, SG 0.437 HEAT
Chris Bosh, PF 0.407 HEAT
Keith Bogans, SG 0.296 BULLS
Derrick Rose, PG 0.280 BULLS
Kyle Korver, SG 0.244 BULLS
Mario Chalmers, PG 0.233 HEAT
James Jones, SF 0.177 HEAT
Mike Bibby, PG 0.163 HEAT
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.
Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
ABOUT REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:
--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating
These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it and where there may be no time for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.
There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.
During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.
These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.
Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).
Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.
After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.
If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.
This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.
So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.
MAY 15 2011
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
CHICAGO BULLS 103 MIAMI HEAT 82
CHICAGO LEADS BEST OF SEVEN SERIES 1-0
KEY PLAYERS WHO DID NOT PLAY
--These are the above average players who would have or should have played but did not.
--The reason is shown after the player if and only if it is known with at least 85% certainty.
--Usually the reason is known with almost 100% certainty.
--If the reason is not known with at least 85% certainty, the reason "unknown" is given.
--Injuries are NEVER perfectly reported and information about them is archived nowhere on the Internet. Therefore, it is possible that when Quest for the Ring identifies "coaching error" or "unknown" as the reason, the real reason may have been an injury.
--If the reason "traded" is shown then in many cases a player who was obtained in that trade played instead.
BULLS
Kurt Thomas did not play due to apparent coaching error.
HEAT
Eddie House did not play due to apparent coaching error.
Udonis Haslem did not play due to injury.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Real Player Rating shows you the real basketball quality of players quickly and accurately.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--Each player's hidden defending rating from the regular season is used as the Hidden Defending Adjustment (HDA). Obviously, players in any individual game including this one were not exactly as good defenders as they were on the average during the regular season. But since there is no way to provide HDA for individual games and since it is better to have some reasonable HDA than none at all, we use the season HDA as a reasonable substitute.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
C.J. Watson, PG 1.901 BULLS
Chris Bosh, PF 1.295 HEAT
Carlos Boozer, PF 1.260 BULLS
Luol Deng, SF 1.222 BULLS
Taj Gibson, PF 1.138 BULLS
Ronnie Brewer, SG 1.050 BULLS
Joakim Noah, C 1.017 BULLS
Derrick Rose, PG 0.951 BULLS
LeBron James, SF 0.895 HEAT
Dwyane Wade, SG 0.691 HEAT
Jamaal Magloire, C 0.647 HEAT
Joel Anthony, C 0.605 HEAT
Omer Asik, C 0.564 BULLS
Keith Bogans, SG 0.487 BULLS
Kyle Korver, SG 0.472 BULLS
James Jones, SF 0.354 HEAT
Mario Chalmers, PG 0.324 HEAT
Mike Bibby, PG 0.282 HEAT
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.200 and more
Historic Super Star 1.080 1.199
Super Star 0.960 1.079
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.860 0.959
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.780 0.859
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.779
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.620 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.540 0.619
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.460 0.539
Poor Player / Should never start 0.380 0.459
Very Poor Player 0.300 0.379
Extremely Poor Player 0.299 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real basketball production (or quantity) of players.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown; as described above hidden defending ratings from the regular season are used.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Luol Deng, SF 55.00 BULLS
Chris Bosh, PF 47.93 HEAT
LeBron James, SF 36.68 HEAT
Joakim Noah, C 36.61 BULLS
Derrick Rose, PG 36.15 BULLS
Carlos Boozer, PF 32.77 BULLS
Dwyane Wade, SG 26.97 HEAT
Taj Gibson, PF 26.18 BULLS
Ronnie Brewer, SG 19.96 BULLS
C.J. Watson, PG 19.01 BULLS
Joel Anthony, C 18.75 HEAT
James Jones, SF 8.49 HEAT
Kyle Korver, SG 8.03 BULLS
Mario Chalmers, PG 7.45 HEAT
Keith Bogans, SG 7.31 BULLS
Mike Bibby, PG 6.49 HEAT
Jamaal Magloire, C 6.47 HEAT
Omer Asik, C 6.20 BULLS
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME ===============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' offense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is not a part of the offensive sub rating.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
C.J. Watson, PG 1.334 BULLS
Chris Bosh, PF 0.888 HEAT
Carlos Boozer, PF 0.774 BULLS
Derrick Rose, PG 0.671 BULLS
Luol Deng, SF 0.578 BULLS
Taj Gibson, PF 0.574 BULLS
Ronnie Brewer, SG 0.454 BULLS
Joakim Noah, C 0.411 BULLS
LeBron James, SF 0.325 HEAT
Dwyane Wade, SG 0.254 HEAT
Kyle Korver, SG 0.228 BULLS
Keith Bogans, SG 0.191 BULLS
James Jones, SF 0.177 HEAT
Jamaal Magloire, C 0.170 HEAT
Mike Bibby, PG 0.120 HEAT
Mario Chalmers, PG 0.091 HEAT
Joel Anthony, C 0.047 HEAT
Omer Asik, C 0.022 BULLS
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' defense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is included as described above.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Luol Deng, SF 0.644 BULLS
Joakim Noah, C 0.606 BULLS
Ronnie Brewer, SG 0.596 BULLS
LeBron James, SF 0.570 HEAT
C.J. Watson, PG 0.567 BULLS
Taj Gibson, PF 0.564 BULLS
Joel Anthony, C 0.558 HEAT
Omer Asik, C 0.542 BULLS
Carlos Boozer, PF 0.487 BULLS
Jamaal Magloire, C 0.478 HEAT
Dwyane Wade, SG 0.437 HEAT
Chris Bosh, PF 0.407 HEAT
Keith Bogans, SG 0.296 BULLS
Derrick Rose, PG 0.280 BULLS
Kyle Korver, SG 0.244 BULLS
Mario Chalmers, PG 0.233 HEAT
James Jones, SF 0.177 HEAT
Mike Bibby, PG 0.163 HEAT
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.
Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
ABOUT REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:
--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating
These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it and where there may be no time for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.
There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.
During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.
These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.
Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).
Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.
After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.
If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.
This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.
So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.
Real Player Ratings for the 2011 West Conference Final Game Two: Oklahoma Thunder 106 Dallas Mavericks 100
2011 WEST CONFERENCE FINAL OKLAHOMA THUNDER VS DALLAS MAVERICKS GAME TWO REAL PLAYER RATINGS
MAY 19 2011
DALLAS, TEXAS
OKLAHOMA THUNDER 106 DALLAS MAVERICKS 100
BEST OF SEVEN SERIES TIED 1-1
KEY PLAYERS WHO DID NOT PLAY
--These are the above average players who would have or should have played but did not.
--The reason is shown after the player if and only if it is known with at least 85% certainty.
--Usually the reason is known with almost 100% certainty.
--If the reason is not known with at least 85% certainty, the reason "unknown" is given.
--Injuries are NEVER perfectly reported and information about them is archived nowhere on the Internet. Therefore, it is possible that when Quest for the Ring identifies "coaching error" or "unknown" as the reason, the real reason may have been an injury.
--If the reason "traded" is shown then in many cases a player who was obtained in that trade played instead.
THUNDER
Nazr Muhammed >>> Did not play due to apparent coaching error.
MAVERICKS
Caron Butler >>> Did not play due to injury.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Real Player Rating shows you the real basketball quality of players quickly and accurately.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--Each player's hidden defending rating from the regular season is used as the Hidden Defending Adjustment (HDA). Obviously, players in any individual game including this one were not exactly as good defenders as they were on the average during the regular season. But since there is no way to provide HDA for individual games and since it is better to have some reasonable HDA than none at all, we use the season HDA as a reasonable substitute.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
James Harden, SG 1.647 THUNDER
Jose Juan Barea, PG 1.478 MAVERICKS
Jason Kidd, PG 1.238 MAVERICKS
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 1.143 MAVERICKS
Eric Maynor, PG 1.071 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 0.950 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 0.880 MAVERICKS
Nick Collison, PF 0.817 THUNDER
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.759 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.667 THUNDER
Kevin Durant, SF 0.654 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.562 THUNDER
Peja Stojakovic, SF 0.560 MAVERICKS
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.426 THUNDER
Brendan Haywood, C 0.412 MAVERICKS
Shawn Marion, SF 0.362 MAVERICKS
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 0.173 MAVERICKS
Jason Terry, SG 0.025 MAVERICKS
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.200 and more
Historic Super Star 1.080 1.199
Super Star 0.960 1.079
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.860 0.959
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.780 0.859
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.779
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.620 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.540 0.619
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.460 0.539
Poor Player / Should never start 0.380 0.459
Very Poor Player 0.300 0.379
Extremely Poor Player 0.299 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real basketball production (or quantity) of players.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown; as described above hidden defending ratings from the regular season are used.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
James Harden, SG 52.69 THUNDER
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 45.73 MAVERICKS
Jason Kidd, PG 44.58 MAVERICKS
Tyson Chandler, C 34.31 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 28.76 THUNDER
Jose Juan Barea, PG 23.64 MAVERICKS
Eric Maynor, PG 21.41 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 21.24 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 18.67 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 15.20 THUNDER
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 14.43 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 13.48 THUNDER
Serge Ibaka, PF 11.93 THUNDER
Peja Stojakovic, SF 10.65 MAVERICKS
Shawn Marion, SF 9.06 MAVERICKS
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 4.85 MAVERICKS
Brendan Haywood, C 3.29 MAVERICKS
Jason Terry, SG 0.74 MAVERICKS
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME ===============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' offense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is not a part of the offensive sub rating.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Jose Juan Barea, PG 1.157 MAVERICKS
James Harden, SG 1.062 THUNDER
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 0.840 MAVERICKS
Eric Maynor, PG 0.819 THUNDER
Jason Kidd, PG 0.678 MAVERICKS
Daequan Cook, SG 0.675 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.576 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 0.514 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 0.420 THUNDER
Brendan Haywood, C 0.338 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.239 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 0.238 THUNDER
Shawn Marion, SF 0.219 MAVERICKS
Peja Stojakovic, SF 0.173 MAVERICKS
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.140 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.112 THUNDER
Jason Terry, SG -0.020 MAVERICKS
DeShawn Stevenson, SG -0.020 MAVERICKS
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' defense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is included as described above.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
James Harden, SG 0.585 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 0.579 THUNDER
Jason Kidd, PG 0.561 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.521 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.450 THUNDER
Peja Stojakovic, SF 0.388 MAVERICKS
Tyson Chandler, C 0.365 MAVERICKS
Jose Juan Barea, PG 0.321 MAVERICKS
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 0.303 MAVERICKS
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.286 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 0.275 THUNDER
Eric Maynor, PG 0.252 THUNDER
Kevin Durant, SF 0.233 THUNDER
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 0.193 MAVERICKS
Shawn Marion, SF 0.143 MAVERICKS
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.091 THUNDER
Brendan Haywood, C 0.074 MAVERICKS
Jason Terry, SG 0.045 MAVERICKS
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.
Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
ABOUT REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:
--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating
These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it and where there may be no time for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.
There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.
During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.
These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.
Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).
Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.
After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.
If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.
This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.
So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.
MAY 19 2011
DALLAS, TEXAS
OKLAHOMA THUNDER 106 DALLAS MAVERICKS 100
BEST OF SEVEN SERIES TIED 1-1
KEY PLAYERS WHO DID NOT PLAY
--These are the above average players who would have or should have played but did not.
--The reason is shown after the player if and only if it is known with at least 85% certainty.
--Usually the reason is known with almost 100% certainty.
--If the reason is not known with at least 85% certainty, the reason "unknown" is given.
--Injuries are NEVER perfectly reported and information about them is archived nowhere on the Internet. Therefore, it is possible that when Quest for the Ring identifies "coaching error" or "unknown" as the reason, the real reason may have been an injury.
--If the reason "traded" is shown then in many cases a player who was obtained in that trade played instead.
THUNDER
Nazr Muhammed >>> Did not play due to apparent coaching error.
MAVERICKS
Caron Butler >>> Did not play due to injury.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Real Player Rating shows you the real basketball quality of players quickly and accurately.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--Each player's hidden defending rating from the regular season is used as the Hidden Defending Adjustment (HDA). Obviously, players in any individual game including this one were not exactly as good defenders as they were on the average during the regular season. But since there is no way to provide HDA for individual games and since it is better to have some reasonable HDA than none at all, we use the season HDA as a reasonable substitute.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
James Harden, SG 1.647 THUNDER
Jose Juan Barea, PG 1.478 MAVERICKS
Jason Kidd, PG 1.238 MAVERICKS
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 1.143 MAVERICKS
Eric Maynor, PG 1.071 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 0.950 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 0.880 MAVERICKS
Nick Collison, PF 0.817 THUNDER
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.759 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.667 THUNDER
Kevin Durant, SF 0.654 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.562 THUNDER
Peja Stojakovic, SF 0.560 MAVERICKS
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.426 THUNDER
Brendan Haywood, C 0.412 MAVERICKS
Shawn Marion, SF 0.362 MAVERICKS
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 0.173 MAVERICKS
Jason Terry, SG 0.025 MAVERICKS
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.200 and more
Historic Super Star 1.080 1.199
Super Star 0.960 1.079
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.860 0.959
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.780 0.859
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.779
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.620 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.540 0.619
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.460 0.539
Poor Player / Should never start 0.380 0.459
Very Poor Player 0.300 0.379
Extremely Poor Player 0.299 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real basketball production (or quantity) of players.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown; as described above hidden defending ratings from the regular season are used.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
James Harden, SG 52.69 THUNDER
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 45.73 MAVERICKS
Jason Kidd, PG 44.58 MAVERICKS
Tyson Chandler, C 34.31 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 28.76 THUNDER
Jose Juan Barea, PG 23.64 MAVERICKS
Eric Maynor, PG 21.41 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 21.24 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 18.67 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 15.20 THUNDER
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 14.43 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 13.48 THUNDER
Serge Ibaka, PF 11.93 THUNDER
Peja Stojakovic, SF 10.65 MAVERICKS
Shawn Marion, SF 9.06 MAVERICKS
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 4.85 MAVERICKS
Brendan Haywood, C 3.29 MAVERICKS
Jason Terry, SG 0.74 MAVERICKS
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME ===============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' offense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is not a part of the offensive sub rating.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Jose Juan Barea, PG 1.157 MAVERICKS
James Harden, SG 1.062 THUNDER
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 0.840 MAVERICKS
Eric Maynor, PG 0.819 THUNDER
Jason Kidd, PG 0.678 MAVERICKS
Daequan Cook, SG 0.675 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.576 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 0.514 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 0.420 THUNDER
Brendan Haywood, C 0.338 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.239 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 0.238 THUNDER
Shawn Marion, SF 0.219 MAVERICKS
Peja Stojakovic, SF 0.173 MAVERICKS
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.140 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.112 THUNDER
Jason Terry, SG -0.020 MAVERICKS
DeShawn Stevenson, SG -0.020 MAVERICKS
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' defense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is included as described above.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
James Harden, SG 0.585 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 0.579 THUNDER
Jason Kidd, PG 0.561 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.521 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.450 THUNDER
Peja Stojakovic, SF 0.388 MAVERICKS
Tyson Chandler, C 0.365 MAVERICKS
Jose Juan Barea, PG 0.321 MAVERICKS
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 0.303 MAVERICKS
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.286 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 0.275 THUNDER
Eric Maynor, PG 0.252 THUNDER
Kevin Durant, SF 0.233 THUNDER
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 0.193 MAVERICKS
Shawn Marion, SF 0.143 MAVERICKS
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.091 THUNDER
Brendan Haywood, C 0.074 MAVERICKS
Jason Terry, SG 0.045 MAVERICKS
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.
Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
ABOUT REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:
--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating
These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it and where there may be no time for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.
There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.
During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.
These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.
Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).
Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.
After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.
If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.
This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.
So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.
Real Player Ratings for the 2011 West Conference Final Game One: Dallas Mavericks 121 Oklahoma Thunder 112
2011 WEST CONFERENCE FINAL OKLAHOMA THUNDER VS DALLAS MAVERICKS GAME ONE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
MAY 17 2011
DALLAS, TEXAS
DALLAS MAVERICKS 121 OKLAHOMA THUNDER 112
DALLAS LEADS BEST OF SEVEN SERIES 1-0
KEY PLAYERS WHO DID NOT PLAY
--These are the above average players who would have or should have played but did not.
--The reason is shown after the player if and only if it is known with at least 85% certainty.
--Usually the reason is known with almost 100% certainty.
--If the reason is not known with at least 85% certainty, the reason "unknown" is given.
--Injuries are NOT perfectly reported and information about them is archived nowhere on the Internet. Therefore, it is possible that when Quest for the Ring identifies "coaching error" or "unknown" as the reason, the real reason may have been an injury.
--If the reason "traded" is shown then in many cases a player who was obtained in that trade played instead.
THUNDER
Nazr Muhammed >>> Played only 5 minutes due to coaching error.
MAVERICKS
Caron Butler >>> injured.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Real Player Rating shows you the real basketball quality of players quickly and accurately.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--Each player's hidden defending rating from the regular season is used as the Hidden Defending Adjustment (HDA). Obviously, players in any individual game including this one were not exactly as good defenders as they were on the average during the regular season. But since there is no way to provide HDA for individual games and since it is better to have some reasonable HDA than none at all, we use the season HDA as a reasonable substitute.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 2.076 MAVERICKS
Jose Juan Barea, PG 1.717 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 1.542 THUNDER
Serge Ibaka, PF 1.007 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.938 THUNDER
Jason Terry, SG 0.915 MAVERICKS
James Harden, SG 0.869 THUNDER
Jason Kidd, PG 0.850 MAVERICKS
Daequan Cook, SG 0.820 THUNDER
Shawn Marion, SF 0.792 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.765 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 0.525 MAVERICKS
Nick Collison, PF 0.422 THUNDER
Eric Maynor, PG 0.365 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.290 THUNDER
Peja Stojakovic, SF 0.285 MAVERICKS
Brendan Haywood, C 0.273 MAVERICKS
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 0.181 MAVERICKS
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.200 and more
Historic Super Star 1.080 1.199
Super Star 0.960 1.079
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.860 0.959
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.780 0.859
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.779
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.620 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.540 0.619
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.460 0.539
Poor Player / Should never start 0.380 0.459
Very Poor Player 0.300 0.379
Extremely Poor Player 0.299 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real basketball production (or quantity) of players.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown; as described above hidden defending ratings from the regular season are used.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 85.12 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 64.75 THUNDER
James Harden, SG 31.27 THUNDER
Serge Ibaka, PF 31.22 THUNDER
Jason Terry, SG 30.21 MAVERICKS
Jason Kidd, PG 29.73 MAVERICKS
Jose Juan Barea, PG 27.47 MAVERICKS
Kendrick Perkins, C 26.25 THUNDER
Shawn Marion, SF 21.39 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 14.54 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 13.13 MAVERICKS
Russell Westbrook, PG 11.04 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 7.38 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 7.18 THUNDER
Brendan Haywood, C 6.56 MAVERICKS
Peja Stojakovic, SF 5.98 MAVERICKS
Eric Maynor, PG 3.65 THUNDER
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 2.53 MAVERICKS
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME ===============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' offense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is not a part of the offensive sub rating.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 1.582 MAVERICKS
Jose Juan Barea, PG 1.419 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 1.106 THUNDER
Jason Terry, SG 0.772 MAVERICKS
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.676 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 0.659 THUNDER
James Harden, SG 0.556 THUNDER
Shawn Marion, SF 0.538 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.519 THUNDER
Jason Kidd, PG 0.494 MAVERICKS
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.460 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 0.289 THUNDER
Brendan Haywood, C 0.139 MAVERICKS
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.089 THUNDER
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 0.062 MAVERICKS
Eric Maynor, PG 0.060 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 0.050 MAVERICKS
Peja Stojakovic, SF -0.001 MAVERICKS
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' defense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is included as described above.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 0.494 MAVERICKS
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.477 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 0.475 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 0.436 THUNDER
Jason Kidd, PG 0.355 MAVERICKS
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.332 THUNDER
James Harden, SG 0.313 THUNDER
Eric Maynor, PG 0.305 THUNDER
Jose Juan Barea, PG 0.299 MAVERICKS
Peja Stojakovic, SF 0.285 MAVERICKS
Shawn Marion, SF 0.255 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.246 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.202 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 0.161 THUNDER
Jason Terry, SG 0.143 MAVERICKS
Brendan Haywood, C 0.134 MAVERICKS
Nick Collison, PF 0.133 THUNDER
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 0.119 MAVERICKS
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.
Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
ABOUT REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:
--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating
These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it and where there may be no time for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.
There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.
During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.
These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.
Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).
Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.
After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.
If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.
This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.
So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.
MAY 17 2011
DALLAS, TEXAS
DALLAS MAVERICKS 121 OKLAHOMA THUNDER 112
DALLAS LEADS BEST OF SEVEN SERIES 1-0
KEY PLAYERS WHO DID NOT PLAY
--These are the above average players who would have or should have played but did not.
--The reason is shown after the player if and only if it is known with at least 85% certainty.
--Usually the reason is known with almost 100% certainty.
--If the reason is not known with at least 85% certainty, the reason "unknown" is given.
--Injuries are NOT perfectly reported and information about them is archived nowhere on the Internet. Therefore, it is possible that when Quest for the Ring identifies "coaching error" or "unknown" as the reason, the real reason may have been an injury.
--If the reason "traded" is shown then in many cases a player who was obtained in that trade played instead.
THUNDER
Nazr Muhammed >>> Played only 5 minutes due to coaching error.
MAVERICKS
Caron Butler >>> injured.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Real Player Rating shows you the real basketball quality of players quickly and accurately.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--Each player's hidden defending rating from the regular season is used as the Hidden Defending Adjustment (HDA). Obviously, players in any individual game including this one were not exactly as good defenders as they were on the average during the regular season. But since there is no way to provide HDA for individual games and since it is better to have some reasonable HDA than none at all, we use the season HDA as a reasonable substitute.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 2.076 MAVERICKS
Jose Juan Barea, PG 1.717 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 1.542 THUNDER
Serge Ibaka, PF 1.007 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.938 THUNDER
Jason Terry, SG 0.915 MAVERICKS
James Harden, SG 0.869 THUNDER
Jason Kidd, PG 0.850 MAVERICKS
Daequan Cook, SG 0.820 THUNDER
Shawn Marion, SF 0.792 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.765 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 0.525 MAVERICKS
Nick Collison, PF 0.422 THUNDER
Eric Maynor, PG 0.365 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.290 THUNDER
Peja Stojakovic, SF 0.285 MAVERICKS
Brendan Haywood, C 0.273 MAVERICKS
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 0.181 MAVERICKS
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.200 and more
Historic Super Star 1.080 1.199
Super Star 0.960 1.079
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.860 0.959
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.780 0.859
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.779
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.620 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.540 0.619
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.460 0.539
Poor Player / Should never start 0.380 0.459
Very Poor Player 0.300 0.379
Extremely Poor Player 0.299 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real basketball production (or quantity) of players.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown; as described above hidden defending ratings from the regular season are used.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 85.12 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 64.75 THUNDER
James Harden, SG 31.27 THUNDER
Serge Ibaka, PF 31.22 THUNDER
Jason Terry, SG 30.21 MAVERICKS
Jason Kidd, PG 29.73 MAVERICKS
Jose Juan Barea, PG 27.47 MAVERICKS
Kendrick Perkins, C 26.25 THUNDER
Shawn Marion, SF 21.39 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 14.54 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 13.13 MAVERICKS
Russell Westbrook, PG 11.04 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 7.38 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 7.18 THUNDER
Brendan Haywood, C 6.56 MAVERICKS
Peja Stojakovic, SF 5.98 MAVERICKS
Eric Maynor, PG 3.65 THUNDER
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 2.53 MAVERICKS
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME ===============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' offense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is not a part of the offensive sub rating.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 1.582 MAVERICKS
Jose Juan Barea, PG 1.419 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 1.106 THUNDER
Jason Terry, SG 0.772 MAVERICKS
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.676 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 0.659 THUNDER
James Harden, SG 0.556 THUNDER
Shawn Marion, SF 0.538 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.519 THUNDER
Jason Kidd, PG 0.494 MAVERICKS
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.460 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 0.289 THUNDER
Brendan Haywood, C 0.139 MAVERICKS
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.089 THUNDER
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 0.062 MAVERICKS
Eric Maynor, PG 0.060 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 0.050 MAVERICKS
Peja Stojakovic, SF -0.001 MAVERICKS
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' defense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is included as described above.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 0.494 MAVERICKS
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.477 THUNDER
Tyson Chandler, C 0.475 MAVERICKS
Kevin Durant, SF 0.436 THUNDER
Jason Kidd, PG 0.355 MAVERICKS
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.332 THUNDER
James Harden, SG 0.313 THUNDER
Eric Maynor, PG 0.305 THUNDER
Jose Juan Barea, PG 0.299 MAVERICKS
Peja Stojakovic, SF 0.285 MAVERICKS
Shawn Marion, SF 0.255 MAVERICKS
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.246 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.202 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 0.161 THUNDER
Jason Terry, SG 0.143 MAVERICKS
Brendan Haywood, C 0.134 MAVERICKS
Nick Collison, PF 0.133 THUNDER
DeShawn Stevenson, SG 0.119 MAVERICKS
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.
Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
ABOUT REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:
--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating
These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it and where there may be no time for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.
There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.
During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.
These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.
Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).
Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.
After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.
If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.
This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.
So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Real Player Ratings for the 2011 West Semifinal Game Seven: Oklahoma Thunder 105 Memphis Grizzlies 90
2011 SEMIFINAL OKLAHOMA THUNDER VS MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES GAME SEVEN REAL PLAYER RATINGS
MAY 15 2011
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA
OKLAHOMA THUNDER 105 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 90
OKLAHOMA WINS BEST OF SEVEN SERIES 4-3
KEY PLAYERS WHO DID NOT PLAY
--These are the above average players who would have or should have played but did not.
--The reason is shown after the player if and only if it is known with at least 85% certainty.
--Usually the reason is known with almost 100% certainty.
--If the reason is not known with at least 85% certainty, the reason "unknown" is given.
--Injuries are NOT perfectly reported and information about them is archived nowhere on the Internet. Therefore, it is possible that when Quest for the Ring identifies "coaching error" or "unknown" as the reason, the real reason may have been an injury.
--If the reason "traded" is shown then in many cases a player who was obtained in that trade played instead.
GRIZZLIES Rudy Gay >>> injured
THUNDER All above average players played in this game.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Real Player Rating shows you the real basketball quality of players quickly and accurately.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--Each player's hidden defending rating from the regular season is used as the Hidden Defending Adjustment (HDA). Obviously, players in any individual game including this one were not exactly as good defenders as they were on the average during the regular season. But since there is no way to provide HDA for individual games and since it is better to have some reasonable HDA than none at all, we use the season HDA as a reasonable substitute.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Kevin Durant, SF 1.494 THUNDER
James Harden, G 1.276 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 1.268 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 1.234 THUNDER
Zach Randolph, PF 0.884 GRIZZLIES
Tony Allen, SG 0.860 GRIZZLIES
Nazr Mohammed, C 0.837 THUNDER
Greivis Vasquez, G 0.733 GRIZZLIES
Mike Conley, PG 0.729 GRIZZLIES
Eric Maynor, PG 0.714 THUNDER
Marc Gasol, C 0.689 GRIZZLIES
O.J. Mayo, SG 0.544 GRIZZLIES
Shane Battier, SF 0.525 GRIZZLIES
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.471 THUNDER
Sam Young, SG 0.379 GRIZZLIES
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.367 THUNDER
Darrell Arthur, PF 0.360 GRIZZLIES
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.273 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG -0.319 THUNDER
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.200 and more
Historic Super Star 1.080 1.199
Super Star 0.960 1.079
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.860 0.959
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.780 0.859
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.779
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.620 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.540 0.619
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.460 0.539
Poor Player / Should never start 0.380 0.459
Very Poor Player 0.300 0.379
Extremely Poor Player 0.299 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real basketball production (or quantity) of players.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown; as described above hidden defending ratings from the regular season are used.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Kevin Durant, SF 58.25 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 43.17 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 41.84 THUNDER
James Harden, G 39.57 THUNDER
Zach Randolph, PF 33.57 GRIZZLIES
Mike Conley, PG 29.14 GRIZZLIES
Marc Gasol, C 25.50 GRIZZLIES
Tony Allen, SG 23.22 GRIZZLIES
O.J. Mayo, SG 17.42 GRIZZLIES
Shane Battier, SF 14.69 GRIZZLIES
Kendrick Perkins, C 14.59 THUNDER
Nazr Mohammed, C 12.55 THUNDER
Eric Maynor, PG 9.28 THUNDER
Darrell Arthur, PF 6.13 GRIZZLIES
Greivis Vasquez, G 5.87 GRIZZLIES
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 5.51 THUNDER
Serge Ibaka, PF 3.54 THUNDER
Sam Young, SG 3.03 GRIZZLIES
Daequan Cook, SG -6.29 THUNDER
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME ===============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' offense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is not a part of the offensive sub rating.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Kevin Durant, SF 1.034 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.980 THUNDER
Greivis Vasquez, G 0.676 GRIZZLIES
James Harden, G 0.535 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 0.512 THUNDER
Zach Randolph, PF 0.477 GRIZZLIES
Nazr Mohammed, C 0.463 THUNDER
Eric Maynor, PG 0.452 THUNDER
Mike Conley, PG 0.429 GRIZZLIES
O.J. Mayo, SG 0.325 GRIZZLIES
Sam Young, SG 0.260 GRIZZLIES
Marc Gasol, C 0.254 GRIZZLIES
Tony Allen, SG 0.191 GRIZZLIES
Shane Battier, SF 0.137 GRIZZLIES
Darrell Arthur, PF 0.125 GRIZZLIES
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.112 THUNDER
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.041 THUNDER
Thabo Sefolosha, SG -0.024 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG -0.572 THUNDER
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' defense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is included as described above.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Nick Collison, PF 0.756 THUNDER
James Harden, G 0.742 THUNDER
Tony Allen, SG 0.669 GRIZZLIES
Kevin Durant, SF 0.460 THUNDER
Marc Gasol, C 0.435 GRIZZLIES
Zach Randolph, PF 0.406 GRIZZLIES
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.391 THUNDER
Shane Battier, SF 0.388 GRIZZLIES
Nazr Mohammed, C 0.374 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.359 THUNDER
Mike Conley, PG 0.300 GRIZZLIES
Eric Maynor, PG 0.261 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.253 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 0.253 THUNDER
Darrell Arthur, PF 0.235 GRIZZLIES
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.231 THUNDER
O.J. Mayo, SG 0.219 GRIZZLIES
Sam Young, SG 0.119 GRIZZLIES
Greivis Vasquez, G 0.057 GRIZZLIES
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.
Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
ABOUT REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:
--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating
These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it and where there may be no time for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.
There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.
During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.
These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.
Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).
Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.
After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.
If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.
This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.
So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.
MAY 15 2011
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA
OKLAHOMA THUNDER 105 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 90
OKLAHOMA WINS BEST OF SEVEN SERIES 4-3
KEY PLAYERS WHO DID NOT PLAY
--These are the above average players who would have or should have played but did not.
--The reason is shown after the player if and only if it is known with at least 85% certainty.
--Usually the reason is known with almost 100% certainty.
--If the reason is not known with at least 85% certainty, the reason "unknown" is given.
--Injuries are NOT perfectly reported and information about them is archived nowhere on the Internet. Therefore, it is possible that when Quest for the Ring identifies "coaching error" or "unknown" as the reason, the real reason may have been an injury.
--If the reason "traded" is shown then in many cases a player who was obtained in that trade played instead.
GRIZZLIES Rudy Gay >>> injured
THUNDER All above average players played in this game.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Real Player Rating shows you the real basketball quality of players quickly and accurately.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--Each player's hidden defending rating from the regular season is used as the Hidden Defending Adjustment (HDA). Obviously, players in any individual game including this one were not exactly as good defenders as they were on the average during the regular season. But since there is no way to provide HDA for individual games and since it is better to have some reasonable HDA than none at all, we use the season HDA as a reasonable substitute.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Kevin Durant, SF 1.494 THUNDER
James Harden, G 1.276 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 1.268 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 1.234 THUNDER
Zach Randolph, PF 0.884 GRIZZLIES
Tony Allen, SG 0.860 GRIZZLIES
Nazr Mohammed, C 0.837 THUNDER
Greivis Vasquez, G 0.733 GRIZZLIES
Mike Conley, PG 0.729 GRIZZLIES
Eric Maynor, PG 0.714 THUNDER
Marc Gasol, C 0.689 GRIZZLIES
O.J. Mayo, SG 0.544 GRIZZLIES
Shane Battier, SF 0.525 GRIZZLIES
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.471 THUNDER
Sam Young, SG 0.379 GRIZZLIES
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.367 THUNDER
Darrell Arthur, PF 0.360 GRIZZLIES
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.273 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG -0.319 THUNDER
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.200 and more
Historic Super Star 1.080 1.199
Super Star 0.960 1.079
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.860 0.959
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.780 0.859
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.779
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.620 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.540 0.619
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.460 0.539
Poor Player / Should never start 0.380 0.459
Very Poor Player 0.300 0.379
Extremely Poor Player 0.299 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real basketball production (or quantity) of players.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown; as described above hidden defending ratings from the regular season are used.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Kevin Durant, SF 58.25 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 43.17 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 41.84 THUNDER
James Harden, G 39.57 THUNDER
Zach Randolph, PF 33.57 GRIZZLIES
Mike Conley, PG 29.14 GRIZZLIES
Marc Gasol, C 25.50 GRIZZLIES
Tony Allen, SG 23.22 GRIZZLIES
O.J. Mayo, SG 17.42 GRIZZLIES
Shane Battier, SF 14.69 GRIZZLIES
Kendrick Perkins, C 14.59 THUNDER
Nazr Mohammed, C 12.55 THUNDER
Eric Maynor, PG 9.28 THUNDER
Darrell Arthur, PF 6.13 GRIZZLIES
Greivis Vasquez, G 5.87 GRIZZLIES
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 5.51 THUNDER
Serge Ibaka, PF 3.54 THUNDER
Sam Young, SG 3.03 GRIZZLIES
Daequan Cook, SG -6.29 THUNDER
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME ===============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' offense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is not a part of the offensive sub rating.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Kevin Durant, SF 1.034 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.980 THUNDER
Greivis Vasquez, G 0.676 GRIZZLIES
James Harden, G 0.535 THUNDER
Nick Collison, PF 0.512 THUNDER
Zach Randolph, PF 0.477 GRIZZLIES
Nazr Mohammed, C 0.463 THUNDER
Eric Maynor, PG 0.452 THUNDER
Mike Conley, PG 0.429 GRIZZLIES
O.J. Mayo, SG 0.325 GRIZZLIES
Sam Young, SG 0.260 GRIZZLIES
Marc Gasol, C 0.254 GRIZZLIES
Tony Allen, SG 0.191 GRIZZLIES
Shane Battier, SF 0.137 GRIZZLIES
Darrell Arthur, PF 0.125 GRIZZLIES
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.112 THUNDER
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.041 THUNDER
Thabo Sefolosha, SG -0.024 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG -0.572 THUNDER
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS FOR THIS GAME
--Shows the real quality of players' defense.
--Players who played at least 7 minutes in the game are included.
--The hidden defending component is included as described above.
--Beginning in 2011 we show just the combined listing; in prior years we separately showed the rank lists by team but this is now considered to be unnecessary.
Nick Collison, PF 0.756 THUNDER
James Harden, G 0.742 THUNDER
Tony Allen, SG 0.669 GRIZZLIES
Kevin Durant, SF 0.460 THUNDER
Marc Gasol, C 0.435 GRIZZLIES
Zach Randolph, PF 0.406 GRIZZLIES
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.391 THUNDER
Shane Battier, SF 0.388 GRIZZLIES
Nazr Mohammed, C 0.374 THUNDER
Kendrick Perkins, C 0.359 THUNDER
Mike Conley, PG 0.300 GRIZZLIES
Eric Maynor, PG 0.261 THUNDER
Russell Westbrook, PG 0.253 THUNDER
Daequan Cook, SG 0.253 THUNDER
Darrell Arthur, PF 0.235 GRIZZLIES
Serge Ibaka, PF 0.231 THUNDER
O.J. Mayo, SG 0.219 GRIZZLIES
Sam Young, SG 0.119 GRIZZLIES
Greivis Vasquez, G 0.057 GRIZZLIES
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.
Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
ABOUT REAL PLAYER RATINGS REPORTS
Of the several dozen types of Reports that Quest for the Ring (QFTR) produces, Team Real Player Rating Reports are among the most important. A Real Player Rating Report gives you four very important ratings for every player in the Report:
--Overall Real Player Rating
--Real Player Production
--Offensive Sub Rating
--Defensive Sub Rating
These Reports are formatted reports. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it and where there may be no time for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
QFTR is considering some kind of labelling system for posts that will allow visitors to even more easily than ever get to content they want or need.
There are two things you can do to get the full value out of RPR Reports. First, you can read parts or all of the User Guide for them (the link to the Guide is below). Second, you can simply visit a lot and see a lot of Reports and then you will automatically become better at interpreting what you see.
During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first validly calculate the hidden defending adjustments) QFTR posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. Between the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin (in late April and in early May) QFTR posts the final ratings for approximately the ten best teams as of the beginning of the playoffs. If there is a major upset in round one and/or round two by a team whose ratings were not yet posted, QFTR will make sure to post those asap.
These final ratings can be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.
Unfortunately, production time limits that are caused partly by limited traffic mean that only a small number of playoff series previews can be produced. Remember, you can help QFTR get more production time by posting links to QFTR wherever you can, and then QFTR will link back to you on request (click the contact link under the banner).
Game Real Player Ratings Reports are produced for every NBA Championship game, every NBA Conference Final game, and for selected NBA semifinal games. For the semifinals, normally, the most interesting semifinal (round two) series will be selected (out of the four of them) and Real Player Ratings for every game in that series will be posted.
After the playoffs are completely over and the off-season arrives, QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final annual Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards. The ones for the top teams that were posted in late April-early May are repeated so there is a complete set in alpha and chronological sequence.
If you ever spend quality time at QFTR you will discover that there are other types of Real Player Rating Reports. Many of these appear in the summer. Among the most important ones that come out in the summer are the League-Wide Real Player Ratings Reports. Also, don't miss the Real Player Ratings Reports by position if you are a serious basketball person.
This section was a limited and brief overview of Real Player Ratings Reports in general. What you need if you want to understand how the Ratings are constructed and why QFTR knows they are the best possible ratings is the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. This User Guide was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed in May or June of 2011. The May 2010 edition is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components.
So for complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
2011 East Conference Final Preview: Chicago Bulls versus Miami Heat
USER GUIDE FOR PLAYOFF SERIES PREVIEWS
Like many high level Reports at Quest for the Ring (QFTR), playoff previews are a formatted type of Report. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
In Playoff Preview Reports (PPRs) Excel Team Grids are used for quick and easy comparisons between teams. Since Excel is ultimately a sophisticated way to format information, PPRs are technically one of the very most intensely formatted Reports in the entire QFTR arsenal of formatted Reports.
Team Grids on Excel are also actually the best foundational tool for managing a basketball team. For example, team grids allow managers, coaches, or anyone else to consider changes in players and/or in playing times that would improve the chances of winning playoff series and regular season games.
Partly because no one is perfect, partly because relatively incompetent coaches are all too common, and partly because basketball (like many things) is more complicated than most people think it is, coaching errors are commonplace. Team Grids on Excel allow for quick flagging of coaching errors, some of which can be big enough to cost a team a playoff series or as many as a dozen regular season wins.
We now proceed to detailed information about the content appearing in Team Playoff Previews in the Excel format.
============ SECTION ONE (AT THE TOP) OF PLAYOFF PREVIEW REPORTS USING EXCEL: HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS ============
Using Real Player Ratings (RPRs) Section One allows for quick and easy comparison of players by position. You can compare specific players for any position. For example, you can see which team has the better starting point guard. You can very easily and quickly see which team has the better second squad small forward. And so on and so forth for each of the five positions and each of the two squads.
Many young and some not so young basketball fans spend time arguing about who is the better player between two playoff starters at the same position. At QFTR we scientifically and accurately inform you of who was actually better in the current year.
SQUAD AVERAGES AND OVERALL TEAM AVERAGES
One of the most important things to observe in the Head to Head Comparison area (Section One) are the squad Real Player Rating (RPR) averages. Carefully comparing the squad averages is very important and if you skip this you really will not be able to properly preview a playoff series.
When you compare squad averages, you are essentially comparing the starters as a whole and the non-starters as a whole of the two teams. Since as everyone knows basketball is partly a team game and has stronger team dynamics at work than in many other sports, when the starters of one team are substantially better than the starters of the other team, this will often mean the advantaged team will likely win the series by virtue of that fact alone.
But keep in mind a smart coach may possibly have graduated one or two second squad players to starter for the playoffs. This will not show up on the team grids in the Report. Also, keep in mind that in the Report, players are placed into squads according to minutes played. So when a team intentionally has the best player at a position come in late in the first quarter "from off the bench" that player may be more of a second squad player out on the court even though he is shown as a first squad player in the Playoff Preview.
By looking at the squad averages you can see what the average rating of the players in that squad is for each team. By comparing the first squad with the second squad, you can see how much of a drop off there is between them. Since most of the players in the first squad are starters, this is approximately equivalent to comparing the starters and the bench. The bigger the drop off, the more minutes the starters should be playing.
TEAM REAL PLAYER RATING AVERAGES
At the very bottom of Section One you will see a row for “Team Average” and on that row you will find the Team Real Player Rating Average (TRPRA) for each of the two teams.
TRPPA is two times the first squad average plus the second squad average divided by three. In other words, it is a weighted average of the top two squads with the first squad counted twice and the second squad counted once, which roughly corresponds to typical playing time patterns. Players in the third squad (also known as "the reserves") the injured players, and the benched players are not counted in the team average.
You can put substantial stock but not an unlimited amount of stock in the team average number.
One weakness of TRPPA is that even among later round playoff teams there are still often going to be in the second squad a player with a very low rating from time to time. How much such players play in the playoffs is dependent on how strapped the team is at the position and on how dumb the coaching is.
Another weakness in the team real player rating average concept that sometimes can be significant is that as already indicated third squad ratings are completely ignored for the Team Real Player Rating Averages. But third squad players sometimes get fairly substantial playing time because sometimes they are fairly good players.
Despite the shortcomings, TRPRA very often correctly signals which team is going to win the series. TRPRA is likely to predict the winner when the difference between the two teams is .050 or more and it is especially likely to correctly predict the winner when the difference is .100 or more. QFTR uses TRPPA (along with other information of course) to help project which team will win playoff series.
TYPICAL POSITION, SQUAD AND TEAM REAL PLAYER RATING AVERAGES FOR THE VERY BEST TEAMS
The following discussion is limited to the very best teams, specifically the four final teams only (the teams in the Conference finals). Position, Squad and Team averages for non-playoff teams and for teams eliminated in the first and second rounds are beyond the scope of this User Guide.
POSITION AVERAGES FOR 4 CONFERENCE FINAL TEAMS
Point Guard .914
Shooting Guard .774
Small Forward .786
Power Forward .872
Center .920
SQUAD AVERAGES FOR 4 CONFERENCE FINAL TEAMS
1st Squad .853
2nd Squad .708
TEAM REAL PLAYER RATING AVERAGES FOR 4 CONFERENCE FINAL TEAMS
Final Four Teams .805
Teams in the NBA Championship .868
TEAMS IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Many Championship teams will have at least one position where the average RPR of the two players who play it the most is greater than .950. Championship teams will sometimes feature two positions where the average of the top two players is greater than .900 with the most common combos being point guard and either center or power forward. At the low end, Championship teams will very seldom have any position where the best two players average below .700.
But some mere playoff teams will have at least one position where the average of the top two players at the position is a little less than .700. The most common positions for this situation would be small forward and shooting guard. As you might expect, playoff teams that have even one position where the top two players who play it average less than .700 are generally the ones eliminated in the early rounds.
NBA OVERALL (ALL TEAMS) REAL PLAYER RATING EVALUATION SCALE
For comparison purposes this Guide now shows the overall Real Player Rating evaluation scale for ALL NBA players and ALL teams. This reminds you that many of the players on the four conference final teams are way above average players:
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.820 0.899
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.760 0.819
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.640 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.580 0.639
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.520 0.579
Poor Player / Should never start 0.460 0.519
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.459
Extremely Poor Player 0.399 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
TEAMS SHOULD AVOID PLAYING LOW RATING PLAYERS IN THE PLAYOFFS
Often, especially on the best coached teams and on the primary contenders, a second squad player with a relatively low rating will be strategically benched during the playoffs. Players at the nearest position can fill in at the position.
In general, centers and point guards with ratings below .650 should play sparingly in the playoffs or not at all. Power forwards with ratings below .615 should play sparingly or not at all in the playoffs. Small forwards and shooting guards with ratings below .545 and .535 respectively should play sparingly or not at all in the playoffs.
============ SECTION TWO (LOWER SECTION) OF PLAYOFF PREVIEWS USING EXCEL: TEAM GRIDS ============
FIRST SQUAD, SECOND SQUAD, AND RESERVES
A depth chart shows you team policy regarding who starts and who are the backups and in what order for the five positions. The team grid is based on the depth chart style. However, players (other than players acquired during the season from trades; see below regarding them) are placed into first squad, second squad, and third squad according to minutes played, not according to the latest ESPN or any other depth chart, or in other words not according to anyone's estimation of what the team policy is.
Instead of using depth charts, whoever has played the most minutes at a position is shown in the “1st Squad” whether or not that player starts at the position. Whoever has played the second most minutes at a position is shown in the "2nd Squad" regardless of that player's position on any depth chart. Whoever has played the third most minutes at a position is shown in the "Reserves" (which could have been labelled "3rd Squad" instead).
There is a notable exception to the rule for who goes in which squad. If a player has been acquired during the season and he is listed as the starter on the ESPN depth chart, he will be shown as first squad. Similarly, if a player acquired during the season is shown as the first backup to the starter in the depth chart he will be shown as second squad regardless of minutes. In other words, the depth chart prevails over minutes in the case of players acquired by trade during the season. This makes sense because minutes played for the prior team could not reasonably be counted for the current team.
PLAYERS WHO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE PLAYING
On a Team Grid, just to the right of the “3rd Squad" column you see two grey areas. From left to right the first one is for players who are most likely or definitely out for much or for all of the series for some reason, usually due to injury.
The rating for players who will not be played is shown as long as the player has played at least 300 minutes in either the current year or in the previous year. If the injured player didn't play at least 300 minutes in either of those years, then "none" will be shown for the rating for both years. Such players most likely would not play even if they were available to play.
The second grey shaded area to the right is for players who could play but almost certainly will not play because they played fewer than 300 minutes during the regular season. The 300 minutes threshold is the minimum needed for a hidden defending adjustment and therefore is the minimum needed for a player to get a Real Player Rating. It also is being used here as the threshold for determining whether a player was essentially benched for the season. 300 minutes is less than four minutes a game, which is a very good dividing line for saying whether a player was benched for the season or not. You can get close to 300 minutes with just garbage time, so if you don't play at least 300 minutes, you are basically benched.
PLAYERS ACQUIRED BY TRADE
We have already described how players acquired by trade are placed with respect to what squad they are in. Here we discuss how we determine what rating to show for them.
Players acquired by trade during the season who have played at least 300 minutes for their new team (during the regular season) are treated on the grid as if they were on the team the entire season. The rating you see for them is for their new, current team minutes. The previous team rating is considered to be irrelevant for the grid.
Players acquired by trade during the season who have NOT played at least 300 minutes for their new team are shown as "more or less benched" if they did play at least 300 minutes for the previous team this season but not at least 300 minutes for the new, current team. The rating you see for them in the "more or less benched" column would have to be and is their rating on their previous team this season.
If the player acquired by trade has never played at least 300 minutes for any team, he is treated like any other player who has never played 300 minutes or more. How those players are shown on the Team Grids immediately follows.
PLAYERS WHO HAVE NEVER PLAYED AT LEAST 300 MINUTES IN ANY SEASON
These players will be listed in the "More or Less Benched for the Season" column. No rating can be computed for them for any year so "none" is shown for prior year rating. Rookies who didn't get to play much in their first years are commonly shown this way. Other than garbage time, it is extraordinarily unlikely that any such players will play in any playoff game in the current year.
In the "More or less Benched" area, the Real Player Rating that is shown is the one from the most recent year the player played at least 300 minutes. What year that was is shown right next to their rating. Sometimes you can spot a player who should have played more than 300 minutes in this area. Generally, players in the More or Less Benched area of the Team Grid will not be playing in any playoff game except perhaps in garbage time.
COMPARING TEAMS BY POSITION
The position averages are shown ONLY on the Team Grids (in Section Two) of the Playoff Preview Report. They are not really relevant for the head to head comparison area (Section One). The header abbreviation used on the grids for the position average column is "POS AVGS".
By looking at position averages in Section Two you can compare the two teams position by position. For each position, only the ratings of the first squad and of the second squad player are considered for the position average. And the rating of the first squad player at each position counts twice as much as the rating of the second squad player at each position. In other words, for each position the position average is two times the rating of the first squad player plus the rating of the second squad player divided by three.
Reserves (third squad) players generally do not play and so their ratings are ignored for the position calculations.
WHAT IF THERE WAS ONLY ONE PLAYER WHO PLAYED AT LEAST 300 MINUTES AT A POSITION?
The position average calculation assumes that there were at least two players who played at least 300 minutes at each position, one in the first squad and one in the second squad. If there is only one player who played 300 minutes or more at a position (who is in the first squad) there is a special rule. For the second player at the position, 75% of that single player's rating is considered to be the rating for the player at that position in the second squad. The 25% reduction is justified because of the fact that one or more players at other positions will have to fill out the position that has only one player. Those other position players will obviously generally not be as valuable at the position as players dedicated to that position are.
What if there isn't much fill-in? If the single player consumes most of the playing time because he is a superstar, the 25% reduction is still justified because when any player plays most of a game, he is often not as good late in the game due to not being rested enough.
Monday, May 16, 2011
2011 West Conference Final Preview: Oklahoma Thunder Versus Dallas Mavericks
USER GUIDE FOR PLAYOFF SERIES PREVIEWS
Like many high level Reports at Quest for the Ring (QFTR), playoff previews are a formatted type of Report. Formatted reports have a pre-set format and there is little or no custom commentary included. The whole idea of formatted reports is to provide a very large amount of important information very efficiently. The carefully planned and long evolved and perfected formatting eliminates the need for time-consuming custom text reporting in contexts where there is really no need for it. But to fully understand a formatted Report you need to be familiar with the User Guide for it.
In contrast to formatted reports, QFTR breaks new ground in general and reveals its latest discoveries about basketball in particular in free form (non-formatted) text reports. While formatted posts are "on the reservation", non-formatted text reports are where QFTR "goes off the reservation". Both types of reports are essential; having just one type without the other type would reduce the value of QFTR by MORE than half.
In Playoff Preview Reports (PPRs) Excel Team Grids are used for quick and easy comparisons between teams. Since Excel is ultimately a sophisticated way to format information, PPRs are technically one of the very most intensely formatted Reports in the entire QFTR arsenal of formatted Reports.
Team Grids on Excel are also actually the best foundational tool for managing a basketball team. For example, team grids allow managers, coaches, or anyone else to consider changes in players and/or in playing times that would improve the chances of winning playoff series and regular season games.
Partly because no one is perfect, partly because relatively incompetent coaches are all too common, and partly because basketball (like many things) is more complicated than most people think it is, coaching errors are commonplace. Team Grids on Excel allow for quick flagging of coaching errors, some of which can be big enough to cost a team a playoff series or as many as a dozen regular season wins.
We now proceed to detailed information about the content appearing in Team Playoff Previews in the Excel format.
============ SECTION ONE (AT THE TOP) OF PLAYOFF PREVIEW REPORTS USING EXCEL: HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS ============
Using Real Player Ratings (RPRs) Section One allows for quick and easy comparison of players by position. You can compare specific players for any position. For example, you can see which team has the better starting point guard. You can very easily and quickly see which team has the better second squad small forward. And so on and so forth for each of the five positions and each of the two squads.
Many young and some not so young basketball fans spend time arguing about who is the better player between two playoff starters at the same position. At QFTR we scientifically and accurately inform you of who was actually better in the current year.
SQUAD AVERAGES AND OVERALL TEAM AVERAGES
One of the most important things to observe in the Head to Head Comparison area (Section One) are the squad Real Player Rating (RPR) averages. Carefully comparing the squad averages is very important and if you skip this you really will not be able to properly preview a playoff series.
When you compare squad averages, you are essentially comparing the starters as a whole and the non-starters as a whole of the two teams. Since as everyone knows basketball is partly a team game and has stronger team dynamics at work than in many other sports, when the starters of one team are substantially better than the starters of the other team, this will often mean the advantaged team will likely win the series by virtue of that fact alone.
But keep in mind a smart coach may possibly have graduated one or two second squad players to starter for the playoffs. This will not show up on the team grids in the Report. Also, keep in mind that in the Report, players are placed into squads according to minutes played. So when a team intentionally has the best player at a position come in late in the first quarter "from off the bench" that player may be more of a second squad player out on the court even though he is shown as a first squad player in the Playoff Preview.
By looking at the squad averages you can see what the average rating of the players in that squad is for each team. By comparing the first squad with the second squad, you can see how much of a drop off there is between them. Since most of the players in the first squad are starters, this is approximately equivalent to comparing the starters and the bench. The bigger the drop off, the more minutes the starters should be playing.
TEAM REAL PLAYER RATING AVERAGES
At the very bottom of Section One you will see a row for “Team Average” and on that row you will find the Team Real Player Rating Average (TRPRA) for each of the two teams.
TRPPA is two times the first squad average plus the second squad average divided by three. In other words, it is a weighted average of the top two squads with the first squad counted twice and the second squad counted once, which roughly corresponds to typical playing time patterns. Players in the third squad (also known as "the reserves") the injured players, and the benched players are not counted in the team average.
You can put substantial stock but not an unlimited amount of stock in the team average number.
One weakness of TRPPA is that even among later round playoff teams there are still often going to be in the second squad a player with a very low rating from time to time. How much such players play in the playoffs is dependent on how strapped the team is at the position and on how dumb the coaching is.
Another weakness in the team real player rating average concept that sometimes can be significant is that as already indicated third squad ratings are completely ignored for the Team Real Player Rating Averages. But third squad players sometimes get fairly substantial playing time because sometimes they are fairly good players.
Despite the shortcomings, TRPRA very often correctly signals which team is going to win the series. TRPRA is likely to predict the winner when the difference between the two teams is .050 or more and it is especially likely to correctly predict the winner when the difference is .100 or more. QFTR uses TRPPA (along with other information of course) to help project which team will win playoff series.
TYPICAL POSITION, SQUAD AND TEAM REAL PLAYER RATING AVERAGES FOR THE VERY BEST TEAMS
The following discussion is limited to the very best teams, specifically the four final teams only (the teams in the Conference finals). Position, Squad and Team averages for non-playoff teams and for teams eliminated in the first and second rounds are beyond the scope of this User Guide.
POSITION AVERAGES FOR 4 CONFERENCE FINAL TEAMS
Point Guard .914
Shooting Guard .774
Small Forward .786
Power Forward .872
Center .920
SQUAD AVERAGES FOR 4 CONFERENCE FINAL TEAMS
1st Squad .853
2nd Squad .708
TEAM REAL PLAYER RATING AVERAGES FOR 4 CONFERENCE FINAL TEAMS
Final Four Teams .805
Teams in the NBA Championship .868
TEAMS IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Many Championship teams will have at least one position where the average RPR of the two players who play it the most is greater than .950. Championship teams will sometimes feature two positions where the average of the top two players is greater than .900 with the most common combos being point guard and either center or power forward. At the low end, Championship teams will very seldom have any position where the best two players average below .700.
But some mere playoff teams will have at least one position where the average of the top two players at the position is a little less than .700. The most common positions for this situation would be small forward and shooting guard. As you might expect, playoff teams that have even one position where the top two players who play it average less than .700 are generally the ones eliminated in the early rounds.
NBA OVERALL (ALL TEAMS) REAL PLAYER RATING EVALUATION SCALE
For comparison purposes this Guide now shows the overall Real Player Rating evaluation scale for ALL NBA players and ALL teams. This reminds you that many of the players on the four conference final teams are way above average players:
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.820 0.899
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.760 0.819
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.640 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.580 0.639
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.520 0.579
Poor Player / Should never start 0.460 0.519
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.459
Extremely Poor Player 0.399 and less
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
To quickly and fairly compare two players who play different positions, convert their Ratings as follows:
Point Guards: Subtract .050; for example, .700 becomes .650
Shooting Guards: Add .065; for example, .700 becomes .765
Small Forwards: Add .055; for example, .700 becomes .755
Power Forwards: Subtract .015; for example, .700 becomes .685
Centers: Subtract .055; for example, .700 becomes .645
TEAMS SHOULD AVOID PLAYING LOW RATING PLAYERS IN THE PLAYOFFS
Often, especially on the best coached teams and on the primary contenders, a second squad player with a relatively low rating will be strategically benched during the playoffs. Players at the nearest position can fill in at the position.
In general, centers and point guards with ratings below .650 should play sparingly in the playoffs or not at all. Power forwards with ratings below .615 should play sparingly or not at all in the playoffs. Small forwards and shooting guards with ratings below .545 and .535 respectively should play sparingly or not at all in the playoffs.
============ SECTION TWO (LOWER SECTION) OF PLAYOFF PREVIEWS USING EXCEL: TEAM GRIDS ============
FIRST SQUAD, SECOND SQUAD, AND RESERVES
A depth chart shows you team policy regarding who starts and who are the backups and in what order for the five positions. The team grid is based on the depth chart style. However, players (other than players acquired during the season from trades; see below regarding them) are placed into first squad, second squad, and third squad according to minutes played, not according to the latest ESPN or any other depth chart, or in other words not according to anyone's estimation of what the team policy is.
Instead of using depth charts, whoever has played the most minutes at a position is shown in the “1st Squad” whether or not that player starts at the position. Whoever has played the second most minutes at a position is shown in the "2nd Squad" regardless of that player's position on any depth chart. Whoever has played the third most minutes at a position is shown in the "Reserves" (which could have been labelled "3rd Squad" instead).
There is a notable exception to the rule for who goes in which squad. If a player has been acquired during the season and he is listed as the starter on the ESPN depth chart, he will be shown as first squad. Similarly, if a player acquired during the season is shown as the first backup to the starter in the depth chart he will be shown as second squad regardless of minutes. In other words, the depth chart prevails over minutes in the case of players acquired by trade during the season. This makes sense because minutes played for the prior team could not reasonably be counted for the current team.
PLAYERS WHO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE PLAYING
On a Team Grid, just to the right of the “3rd Squad" column you see two grey areas. From left to right the first one is for players who are most likely or definitely out for much or for all of the series for some reason, usually due to injury.
The rating for players who will not be played is shown as long as the player has played at least 300 minutes in either the current year or in the previous year. If the injured player didn't play at least 300 minutes in either of those years, then "none" will be shown for the rating for both years. Such players most likely would not play even if they were available to play.
The second grey shaded area to the right is for players who could play but almost certainly will not play because they played fewer than 300 minutes during the regular season. The 300 minutes threshold is the minimum needed for a hidden defending adjustment and therefore is the minimum needed for a player to get a Real Player Rating. It also is being used here as the threshold for determining whether a player was essentially benched for the season. 300 minutes is less than four minutes a game, which is a very good dividing line for saying whether a player was benched for the season or not. You can get close to 300 minutes with just garbage time, so if you don't play at least 300 minutes, you are basically benched.
PLAYERS ACQUIRED BY TRADE
We have already described how players acquired by trade are placed with respect to what squad they are in. Here we discuss how we determine what rating to show for them.
Players acquired by trade during the season who have played at least 300 minutes for their new team (during the regular season) are treated on the grid as if they were on the team the entire season. The rating you see for them is for their new, current team minutes. The previous team rating is considered to be irrelevant for the grid.
Players acquired by trade during the season who have NOT played at least 300 minutes for their new team are shown as "more or less benched" if they did play at least 300 minutes for the previous team this season but not at least 300 minutes for the new, current team. The rating you see for them in the "more or less benched" column would have to be and is their rating on their previous team this season.
If the player acquired by trade has never played at least 300 minutes for any team, he is treated like any other player who has never played 300 minutes or more. How those players are shown on the Team Grids immediately follows.
PLAYERS WHO HAVE NEVER PLAYED AT LEAST 300 MINUTES IN ANY SEASON
These players will be listed in the "More or Less Benched for the Season" column. No rating can be computed for them for any year so "none" is shown for prior year rating. Rookies who didn't get to play much in their first years are commonly shown this way. Other than garbage time, it is extraordinarily unlikely that any such players will play in any playoff game in the current year.
In the "More or less Benched" area, the Real Player Rating that is shown is the one from the most recent year the player played at least 300 minutes. What year that was is shown right next to their rating. Sometimes you can spot a player who should have played more than 300 minutes in this area. Generally, players in the More or Less Benched area of the Team Grid will not be playing in any playoff game except perhaps in garbage time.
COMPARING TEAMS BY POSITION
The position averages are shown ONLY on the Team Grids (in Section Two) of the Playoff Preview Report. They are not really relevant for the head to head comparison area (Section One). The header abbreviation used on the grids for the position average column is "POS AVGS".
By looking at position averages in Section Two you can compare the two teams position by position. For each position, only the ratings of the first squad and of the second squad player are considered for the position average. And the rating of the first squad player at each position counts twice as much as the rating of the second squad player at each position. In other words, for each position the position average is two times the rating of the first squad player plus the rating of the second squad player divided by three.
Reserves (third squad) players generally do not play and so their ratings are ignored for the position calculations.
WHAT IF THERE WAS ONLY ONE PLAYER WHO PLAYED AT LEAST 300 MINUTES AT A POSITION?
The position average calculation assumes that there were at least two players who played at least 300 minutes at each position, one in the first squad and one in the second squad. If there is only one player who played 300 minutes or more at a position (who is in the first squad) there is a special rule. For the second player at the position, 75% of that single player's rating is considered to be the rating for the player at that position in the second squad. The 25% reduction is justified because of the fact that one or more players at other positions will have to fill out the position that has only one player. Those other position players will obviously generally not be as valuable at the position as players dedicated to that position are.
What if there isn't much fill-in? If the single player consumes most of the playing time because he is a superstar, the 25% reduction is still justified because when any player plays most of a game, he is often not as good late in the game due to not being rested enough.
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