The Nuggets Collapse in Milwaukee and Face Missing the Playoffs: Bucks 115 Nuggets 109

The Nuggets collapsed in the 2nd half to a well-coached and determined Bucks team in Milwaukee, a team that had recently surprised the Pistons on their home court. The Bucks won the game 115-109. The Bucks have a talent shortage but certainly had no shortage of will to win at home. Their Coach, Larry Krystkowiak, was more and more engaged and intense as the game went along, whereas George Karl for the Nuggets was mostly more and more visibly distressed as the game went along. Both the Bucks and the Nuggets were playing on back to back nights, but in the 2nd half where any fatigue would show up, it was showing up mostly in the Nuggets, while the Bucks cleaned house on the court.

Specifically, the very high minutes per game given to Iverson and Camby clearly backfired in this game; Camby did seem more tired than usual, and he was committing way more fouls than usual and getting upset about it. Iverson was not turning it over much, but he missed both his threes and 12 of 20 shots overall. Camby’s Real Player Rating was only .666 and Iverson’s was only .789 compared with their averages of about .950 and 1.000 respectively. Not giving these two older superstars enough breathers during games finally bit the Nuggets in the rear end in this game.

The loss is the second straight and the third in the last 4 games, and makes the Nuggets the odd team out looking in on the playoffs right now. As of now, it seems that the Nuggets and the Warriors are going to battle it out for the 8th and final seed in the West. However, the Nuggets have a substantially more difficult schedule than do the Warriors the rest of the way, not to mention serious consistency and execution problems which the Warriors do not have, so the Warriors are clearly the favorite over the Nuggets to get the last playoff spot. The Nuggets will have to get back their will to win and desire to win the ring, or it will be one of the biggest boondoggles in the history of the NBA if the Nuggets, with 3 superstars (Iverson, Anthony, Camby) and a developing star (J.R. Smith) are unable to even get a playoff spot.

Despite leading by 11 at the end of the 1st, by 23 with 4 minutes left in the half, and by 14 at the half, the Nuggets were owned in the entire 2nd half by the rock solid Bucks and their rock solid coach, Larry Krystkowiak. While the great majority of the Bucks’ assists were made by Desmond Mason and Mo Williams, the Nuggets saw a total breakdown of their usual pattern of assists coming mostly from Anthony Carter and Allen Iverson. Of the 22 Nuggets assists, Carter made only 3 of them and Iverson made only 5 of them. J.R. Smith, who, keep in mind is a shooting guard, made 4 assists and Marcus Camby, who keep in mind is a center, made 3 assists.

Now you might be saying “You can’t please this guy, because he gripes when the offense is limited to certain players and now he is griping when the assists are spread out.” You are right in general, I do criticize a lot, I’m good at it, but I try to be good at coming up with improvements also. And I would agree that seeing the assists spread out is a sign that the Nuggets were trying to correct their ridiculous ultra-low passing and assisting offense in Chicago the night before.

But the problem here is that the Nuggets threw the baby out with the bathwater. They went from one extreme to the other extreme. In Chicago, Iverson dominated assisting, but to the point where other Nuggets, who totaled just 17 assists, were not making enough assists, while meanwhile the Bulls were running all over the Nuggets and making a very impressive 34 assists. Then in this Bucks game, the Nuggets improved to a reasonable 22 assists, but 7 different Nuggets made 2 or more assists while the main point guards, Iverson and Carter, made only 8 assists in total. Why is that bad? Because it means that the big flaw in the Nuggets’ offense has been proved to exist again, namely, that the Nuggets have a totally made up as they go offense from one game to the next, and they are starved for planned plays.

There are different players doing different things offensively each game, to the point where your head can spin. In every game and for every team, for an offense to be considered to be reasonably planned and benefiting from repetition, the top two distributors should account for, at the very least, 1/2 of all the assists. Iverson and Carter were 3 assists short which means, in effect, that Iverson and Carter were not in real control of the Nuggets’ offense. In fact, no one was in control of the Nuggets’ offense, and that is the point. The Nuggets in this game were going to rise or fall based on the randomness of a series of individual decisions and shots. That is not a very good way to run a basketball team.

As you know from the result, the Nuggets did not have very much luck in this game. About 10 days ago, I reported that the Nuggets have won roughly half a dozen games largely by luck this year, and this game is a reminder of why I said that. When you have effectively a substantially different offense in every game, and you depend on a lot of isolation plays and on fast breaks, there is going to be a large random chance element involved as to whether you win or not, much more than usual for the NBA. Since a substantially different mix of shots are taken by a substantially different mix of players every game, there is a luck factor not only with respect to whether the shots go down, but also with respect to whether the shots attempted are good ones or low percentage bad ones.

Players do have their favorite shots, so there is a limit on offensive inconsistency, but it is much to inconsistent to be a good offense in the NBA. Whether the Nuggets choose good shots or bad shots, which is determined partly by luck, and whether the shots go in or not, which once again is determined partly by luck, are big factors in determining whether the Nuggets win. And you can certainly say that the Nuggets as a whole do not choose their shots wisely.

The Nuggets beat the Bucks in the skills of stealing the ball, 13-5, and in blocking the shot, 8-5. They even were a little ahead of the Bucks on assists, 22-20. But the Bucks clearly wanted to win the game much more than the Nuggets did, with evidence for that provided by a heavy Buck rebounding advantage, 65-51. The Nuggets, led by Kenyon Martin with 14 and Marcus Camby with 10, had only 4 players who made 4 or more rebounds. The Bucks had 6 players who were active rebounders with 4 or more. Andrew Bogut, the center, doubled Camby’s rebounds and led the Bucks with 20 rebounds. Defensive rebounding was about equal, but the Bucks made 11 more offensive rebounds than did the Nuggets and, by doing so, they earned 6 more shots on goal than did the Nuggets. Normally the Nuggets are a pretty good offensive rebounding team, averaging about 12 per game, but in this game, the Bucks made 20 offensive rebounds to just 9 for the Nuggets.

Shooting overall was 38/86 or 44.2% for the Nuggets and 40/92 or 43.5% for the Bucks. For 3-point shooting, which is the one skill that the Nuggets are short on, the Nuggets nevertheless did a little better than the Bucks did, 8/22 versus 6/18. As usual, J.R. Smith led the Nuggets in 3-point shooting; he was 4/9. Najera was 2/2. On the downside, Carter was 1/5 and Iverson was 0/2.

In the next game report, the one for the Pistons, I will take a look at the Nuggets’ point guard problem, and the controversy over whether Carter or Iverson should be the point guard. And either in that game report or the one after that (which would be the Sonics game) you will find out who are really the best point guards among the starting point guards of the best 13 teams in the NBA.

I now will give you some information about the Nuggets trade efforts as the February 20 NBA trade deadline approached. Some of this information is not really supposed to be reported to the public but, as the saying goes, inquiring minds want to know.

With regard to Nene, the 25-year-old forward had surgery last month to remove a malignant tumor. He took an indefinite medical leave of absence from the team Jan. 11. He has just had, or is about to have, one chemotherapy treatment, and he will be recovering from that during the last week of February. The Nuggets said in a news release Thursday February 21 that the treatment is preventative and that it "essentially eliminates the odds of a recurrence."

Following chemo, it is Nene’s intention to start working out, and then to be on the court in mid or late March. However, this timing totally uncertain, and the Nuggets have not told the public when to or if to expect the return of Nene to the court. Nene’s current weight is 248, and chemo will probably take another 5-7 pounds off of him. When Nene informed the Denver front office of these plans, the owner of the Nuggets, Stan Kroenke, put the kibosh on any more talks regarding moving Nene to another team for relatively small compensation. Kroenke is remaining behind the Brazilian in his current time of trouble,

With regard to the Nuggets’ pursuit Ron Artest of the Kings, with the objectives being to shore up the defense and to add toughness to the team, which in turn would theoretically increase the odds that the Nuggets could succeed in the playoffs, the Nuggets had a standing offer of Najera and a first-round draft pick for Artest on the table. The Kings wanted Denver to add third-year small forward Linas Kleiza to the package. Yet in the last two days of possible dealings, a source close to the Kings said the Nuggets never once called.

What happened? The General Manager of the Nuggets was strongly in favor of the deal but the Coach, George Karl, was strongly opposed to the deal. In a phone call with the owner, Karl explained in detail why he did not want the trade to be made, and he was able to persuade the owner and even the general manager that it should not be made. Neither the owner nor the General Manager wanted to bring Artest on to the team against the wishes of Karl. Karl was reportedly also able to persuade Iverson and Melo, who earlier were in favor of the Artest trade.

As you know if you read these reports, Karl puts a lot of weight on subjective and abstract factors with respect to both players and the team as a while. Predictably, Karl thought that introducing Artest, known for having a volatile personality, to a locker room already filled with strong personalities had a big chance of not working. Karl argued that he only had 10 real practices scheduled for the remainder of the season, and he had no idea where he would play Artest, or how Kenyon Martin or Artest might react to coming off the bench and playing limited minutes. He also said he had no idea how he could get Artest flowing in the offense.

More broadly, Karl argued that his team is ready to take the next step, that it is just now taking it, and he believes it will happen. Karl argued that taking his two most professional, most prepared players, Najera and Kleiza, off the team would really hurt the ongoing arrival of the Nuggets to the promised land. He said you really can't have a great team without leadership on the professionalism front. Karl argued that Najera and Kleiza were the leaders in professionalism for the Nuggets.

In a word, Karl feared that the volatile Artest could destroy the chemistry and professionalism on the Nuggets that has been under development for several years while Karl has been the coach. He said that the Nuggets were finally and truly starting to become a true "team."

Anyone who reads my reports would know that I am not the least bit surprised about any of this. I think I know the way Karl thinks like I know the back of my hand at this point.

But there you have it, folks. Karl is on record as saying that what are to him the precious subjective and abstract factors are finally reaching fruition for the Nuggets. So now there can not be any possible excuse, according to Karl himself, for the Nuggets not making the playoffs, or for not competing well enough to win at least a couple of games in the 1st round. In other words, Karl himself will be very surprised if the Nuggets do not make the playoffs.

Delonte West, the 5th-year Sonics shooting guard who was also mentioned as a Nuggets trade target, was never a realistic acquisition target, because he would have been a “rented player” who could opt out and go elsewhere at the end of this season. The odds were considered pretty high that that is what he would have done.

Guard-Forward Mike Miller of the Grizzlies was also pursued by the Nuggets, and the front office thought it was going to happen, but the Grizzlies backed out at the last minute, frustrating the front office to no end.

Several weeks ago, the Nuggets had a standing offer to the Grizzlies of Marcus Camby for Pau Gasol but, as we know, the Grizzlies made a trade with the Lakers which has been heavily criticized as being lopsided in favor of the Lakers. In other words, the Grizzlies could probably have made a better deal with the Nuggets.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE

NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Chucky Atkins: He was diagnosed with a right groin/abdominal strain (sports hernia) on Jan. 9 and underwent successful surgery on Jan. 11. He is expected to be sidelined a minimum of eight weeks. Atkins is out until at least March 10. With any luck, he will be back in the Nuggets lineup by late March.
Linas Kleiza: did not suit up at Milwaukee on 2/23 as a result of a sprained left ankle that he suffered vs. Boston on 2/19. His status for the next game is questionable.
Nene: underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He is out until at least the first week of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season.
Steven Hunter: He missed the last several games because of soreness and inflammation in his right knee, his status is questionable for the next game.

BUCKS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Ramon Sessions: He fractured his left hand during a Feb. 8th practice and will miss six weeks.
Awvee Storey: remained sidelined because of the flu Saturday against the Nuggets. He has now missed nine games.
David Noel: Wrist injury and surgery, out until late February..

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of February 24, 2008

The Nuggets are under an ORANGE ALERT, on account of the following problems.

INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS
1. Chucky Atkins injury 18 points
2. Linas Kleiza injury 17 points
2. Nene illness 14 points
3. Steven Hunter injury 4 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED PLAYER PERFORMANCE PROBLEMS
There are none at this time: 0 points.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

J.R. Smith was partially benched: 0 points. (He wasn’t partially benched.)

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 3 points. Since Denver had 4 players unavailable out of an already limited 13 players, Diawara should have played at least 6 minutes more than a trivial 5 minutes, so that at least the minimum of 8 players 10 minutes or more benchmark was achieved.

4. The Nuggets have extreme inconsistency and a truly excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a partial system on offense. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson reduces the damage. In broad terms, the team has failed to decide whether it wants Melo alone, Iverson alone, Melo and Iverson together, or neither of them to be firstly responsible for scoring enough points to keep the Nuggets in games. If it were neither, I call the name of that strategy the "share the wealth" strategy. More specifically, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.

On defense a system is much less important than on offense. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The choice varies during each game, and usually depends on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader, as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. More important than whether a zone or man to man defense is in effect is the quality of the actual defending.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 9 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 2 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 67, which constitutes ORANGE ALERT.

ORANGE ALERT (55-74): Moderate damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under serious threat, and you can just about forget about beating quality teams. About 3/4 of all wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is much more difficult ORANGE ALERT. About 1/2 of games against mid-level teams that would have been won will be lost under this alert. Even poor teams can often beat an otherwise good team that is under this alert. Close to 1/4 of games against low level teams that would have been won will be lost under this alert. A good team has been reduced to being a mid-level team, at best, when it is under this alert.

The damage description assumes that Nuggets opponents are in a GREY ALERT or better status. When the Nuggets play teams that are in yellow alert or worse, the damage they suffer from being in a significant alert status will be substantially reduced. In other words, opponents who are themselves in significant alert situations will obviously be more beatable, even when the Nuggets are in a significant alert situation.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS
Two of the three Bucks not available were the third option at their positions, while the third was the second option at his position. For the Nuggets, at least 3 of the 4 players not available are supposed to be the second options at their positions. Technically, Chucky Atkins is supposed to be the first string PG, but that seems to be ancient history now, due to his terrible start and marathon injury out.

Without being an expert on the Bucks, I would estimate that they were probably in GREY alert, or YELLOW alert at the very most. So aside from the home court advantage, the Bucks also had a lesser alert level, by at least one and probably two levels. So the warning above, “Close to 1/4 of games against low level teams that would have been won will be lost under this alert” was most likely in effect for this game. So the result was really not all that shocking from an objective standpoint, you can only have so many walking wounded before you start to pay a price in terms of wins and losses. Does that mean the Nuggets should not or could not have won? Of course not, as explained in other sections of this report. And even in the alert description, the Nuggets still had roughly a 3/4 chance of beating the Bucks, and still roughly a 1/2 chance after the Bucks’ home court advantage is factored in.

Both Atkins and Nene are definitely going to be out for many more weeks and either one of them or both of them could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. And George Karl is definitely not going to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon. Therefore, the Nuggets, unless they make a trade and/or acquire a diamond in the rough player, are doomed to be in ORANGE ALERT or YELLOW ALERT for most or all of the rest of the season, which endangers their chances of making the playoffs.

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s team analysis system, is 56%, only slightly better now than the low point reached before the all-star break, which was almost exactly 50%. Winning the Northwest Division is nothing more than a pipe dream at this point; the odds on that have dropped to only 7%, But these odds don’t take into account that most likely neither Nene nor Atkins are going to be available to the Nuggets for the stretch run, so the real odds that the Nuggets will make the playoffs are probably slightly less than 50% now.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 7 Bucks 9
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 7 Bucks 7

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 28
Bucks Non-Starters Points: 15

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 3
Bucks Non-Starters Rebounds: 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 7
Bucks Non-Starters Assists: 3

OBSERVATIONS ON HOW THE RESERVES WERE USED AND PLAYED
The Nuggets were down to 7 players playing 10 minutes or more, and the same 7 players for just 6 minutes or more, a dangerous gamble even against a poor team. But the Bucks had only 7 players at 10 minutes or more themselves, although Yi Jianlian was very close with 9 minutes. Since Jianlian is averaging almost 27 minutes a game, I would think he had a transient injury of some kind during this game.

Led by J.R. Smith’s 20 points, the Nuggets’ non-starters handily defeated the Bucks’ non-starters in points scored 28-15. Rebounding went decisively in favor the Bucks’ non-starters, 9-3. Led by J.R. Smith’s 4 assists, the Nuggets’ non-starters achieved a rare victory in assists over the Bucks’ non-starters, 7-3.

The reserve watch feature is under development, and it will be gradually expanded. The complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. Many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-BUCKS PLAYER RATINGS
NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Kenyon Martin: Game 37.5 Season 22.5
Carmelo Anthony: Game 36.8 Season 39.1
Allen Iverson: Game 34.7 Season 40.9
J.R. Smith: Game 26.4 Season 15.6
Marcus Camby: Game 25.3 Season 33.3
Eduardo Najera: Game 19.5 Season 13.1
Anthony Carter: Game 17.7 Season 20.6
Yakhouba Diawara: Game -1.0 Season 5/1

Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Injury
Linas Kleiza: Did Not Play-Injury
Nene: Did Not Play-Illness
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Injury

Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

BUCKS PLAYER RATINGS
Michael Redd: Game 55.1 Season 34.4
Mo Williams: Game 43.9 Season 31.3
Andrew Bogut: Game 35.1 Season 28.0
Charlie Villanueva: Game 19.8 Season 16.5
Desmond Mason: Game 19.3 Season 16.7
Charlie Bell: Game 11.8 Season 13.1
Dan Gadzuric: Game 8.1 Season 6.8
Yi Jianlian: Game 4.4 Season 17.3
Bobby Simmons: Game 2.4 Season 12.4

NOTE: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
Kenyon Martin went from biggest disappointment to top performer overnight. But none of the Nuggets’ big 3, Iverson, Anthony, or Camby, could rise above their normal production in this game. However, at least Iverson and Anthony were very close to their usual high level. J.R. Smith went from essentially off the charts the night before to playing just a plain old really good game in this one. Carter was in the same “couldn’t quite get over the hump” group as were the big 3. Diawara’s number is almost meaningless because he only played 5 minutes.

As you can see, the Nuggets were beaten mostly by 3 players: Redd, Williams, and Bogut, while Villanueva and Mason were very important contributors as well. It is believed that Yi Jianlian must have had some kind of temporary injury during this game, because he only played 9 minutes. Simmons played only 7 minutes, so his number is largely meaningless. The fact is, the Bucks put out the kind of solid, almost perfect team effort that the Nuggets did 4 nights earlier in their upset win over the Celtics. 6 of the 7 Bucks who played 10 minutes or more were above their seasonal averages and the 7th, Charlie Bell, was only an insignificant amount less than his.

You see why basketball is called a team sport? When a team plays in such a way that it is possible for everyone to contribute, and they all do in fact contribute at impressive rates, it is very difficult for that team to lose the game, even when it is not a very talented team. That’s why it is critical that you have a coach that realizes the importance of keeping everyone in the flow, and one that knows how to make sure most or all of his players are involved in the offense in one way or another on most plays other than fast breaks.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Bad Game-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-BUCKS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Michael Redd, Mil 1.198
2. Kenyon Martin, Den 1.042
3. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.022
4. J.R. Smith, Den 1.015
5. Mo Williams, Mil 0.998
6. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.886
7. Andrew Bogut, Mil 0.798
8. Allen Iverson, Den 0.789
9. Charlie Villanueva, Mil 0.762
10. Dan Gadzuric, Mil 0.675
11. Marcus Camby, Den 0.666
12. Desmond Mason, Mil 0.666
13. Charlie Bell, Mil 0.590
14. Anthony Carter, Den 0.536
15. Yi Jianlian, Mil 0.489…Jianlian played only 9 minutes.
16. Bobby Simmons, Mil 0.343…Simmons played only 7 minutes.
17. Yakhouba Diawara, Den -0.200…Diawara played only 5 minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Redd of the Bucks was the only star in this game. He was by a good margin the best player on the floor. 3 Nuggets were outstanding: Martin, Anthony, and Smith, while Williams was outstanding for the Bucks. So the Nuggets had 3 of the 5 players who were outstanding or better. They still lost, because of how good Redd was, and because the Bucks were able to draw on an overall number of players advantage of 9-8, with 9-7 1/2 being more accurate since Diawara played only 5 minutes. Among the 12 players who were mediocre or better, each team had 6.

The only player on either squad who played substantial minutes, but was clearly in the poor zone, was Anthony Carter.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Eduardo Najera: +8
J.R. Smith: +3
Kenyon Martin: -8
Allen Iverson: -9
Anthony Carter: -9
Carmelo Anthony: -10
Marcus Camby: -13

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
Along with Smith, Najera frequently plays better on the road. Although Smith was no where near as explosive as he was the night before, he nonetheless was one of only two Nuggets who ended up with a plus on the plus-minus. Camby had a very unusual number of fouls, and he was not happy about it, let me tell you. Also unusual was the relative amount of difficulty Camby, who is one of the best centers in the NBA, had in defending the opposing team’s relatively average center, Andrew Bogut in this case.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: Total 14, Team 0, Anthony 6, Camby 1, Carter 2, Diawara 0, Iverson 2, Martin 0, Najera 1, Smith 2

Personal Fouls: Total 26, Anthony 4, Camby 5, Carter 2, Diawara 2, Iverson 1, Martin 3, Najera 4, Smith 5

Yakhouba Diawara played 5 minutes and was 0/1, 0/1 on 3’s, and 0/2 from the line for 0 points, and he made 1 assist.

Anthony Carter played 33 minutes and was 4/11 and 1/5 on 3’s for 9 points, and he made 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals.

Marcus Camby played 38 minutes and was 3/9 and 0/1 on 3’s for 6 points, and he made 10 rebounds, 4 blocks, 3 assists, and 2 steals.

Allen Iverson played for virtually the whole game, 44 minutes, and was 8/20, 0/2 on 3’s, and 10/11 from the line for 26 points, and he made 5 assists, 2 rebounds, and 1 steal.

Eduardo Najera played 22 minutes and was 3/3 and 2/2 on 3’s for 8 points, and he made 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block.

J.R. Smith played 26 minutes and was 6/15, 4/9 on 3’s, and 4/6 from the line for 20 points, and he made 4 assists, 1 steal, and 1 rebound.

Carmelo Anthony played 36 minutes and was 9/17, 1/2 on 3’s, and 6/7 from the line for 25 points, and he made 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block.

Kenyon Martin played 36 minutes and was 5/10 and 5/8 from the line for 15 points, and he made 14 rebounds, 3 steals, 2 blocks, and 2 assists.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Monday, February 25 in Denver to play the Pistons at 7 pm mountain time. The Pistons will be playing on back to back days, while the Nuggets will not be. Therefore, the Nuggets will enjoy both the home court and the extra rest advantages.