In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
______________________________________
MIDDLE MAY 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
Reasons to Take Melo Trade Rumors More Seriously Than You Usually Would
* 1. C Anthony may have finally figured out how screwed up the Nuggets are and how it isn't going to change until there are changes in team management. But the Nuggets are too dumb or cowardly right now to make the needed changes. Remember that he called the Nuggets a quitting team during and after game 3 of the playoffs blowout by the Lakers.
So Anthony may have more or less demanded a trade, but decided to do it out of the public eye.
* 2. The Nuggets were dumb enough to trade for Allen Iverson but not make any changes at all in his Philadelphia role, producing the same futile result. So they are dumb enough to make a dumb Anthony trade.
* 3. The Nuggets need salary relief.
* 4. The Nuggets need a scapegoat if they are too dumb and/or too cowardly to get rid of some coaches.
* 5. George Karl may have demanded that the Nuggets get better defenders on the team, so that he can rely less on his no structure, fast pace offense for easy wins against poor teams next year. Karl/The FO may be trying for the overly simplistic fix of getting better defenders in their quest to win playoff games. I'm not against better defenders but in and of itself it's not going to solve the Nuggets problems, especially if a dumb Melo trade is involved in bringing it about.
In other words, Karl and/or other team managers may have decided that the team needs to move heavily in the direction of more defending and less offense, which would make Melo expendable to some extent.
* 6. Any team dumb enough to even discuss a Melo trade that does not involve either of the two Nuggets 2-guards, both of whom are among the best 2-guards in the League, Iverson and Smith, in exchange for an outstanding point guard, is dumb enough to make a dumb Melo trade.
______________________________________________
I forgot an important one.
* 7. Karl has named AI as captain and Carmelo Anthony is not even co-captain. Also, Melo's game has been micromanaged by Karl/other coaches to some extent while Iverson has been given total free reign to play any way he wants. Both of these indicate that if the Nuggets make a major trade, it is more likely that Melo goes rather than AI.
_______________________________________________
Well if there has been discussion, and every major media is reporting that there has been, then even if the NJ potential deal falls through, Melo may be moved to some other team after the draft picks become known.
The fact that JR is a NJ native and the fact that Karl doesn't like him makes the NJ discussions all the more interesting and worth taking seriously.
I rarely think about potential trades but this has to be an exception because I know too much not to know that it is in fact possible that the Nuggets would trade C Anthony during this off-season. I'm still not saying it's likely, but it's more likely than some would like to believe. If you had to put odds on it, the odds would be somewhere in the 25-45% range, with the 45% being correct if Melo has demanded to be traded.
______________________________________________
Yeah, and if that's really what the proposal is, instead of Williams/Jefferson/pick, and Melo wants out, then it is a real possibility, regardless of exactly what pick NJ gets, unless perhaps it's a really low one.
_______________________________________________
A really smart basketball guy (other than me!) commented:
Again, I hate to be redundant, but this is the same front office that was seriously suggesting Zach Randolph at the deadline (All things considered, probably the worst potential fit for our situation). You are going to tell me that something like this is out of the question (Williams as the second piece)?
Melo has been made the scapegoat and unfortunately we have already run him out of town, it's only a matter of when
My response was:
Damn, you are saying what I am afraid to say but I think is true in the back of my head.
___________________________________________
The franchise seems to be content with having one or two historic stars on the roster, with filling seats, with selling merchandise, with preventing falling into the cellar as in years past, and in just barely making the playoffs if possible. Winning in the playoffs is too difficult in the current Western Conference, exactly as Mr. Karl explained recently.
For a relatively small market, you could actually make a case that this is not such a bad set of objectives. If you go for the gold, there is always a chance you will fall completely on your ass and end up in the cellar. But if you don't try for the gold, and just try for the bronze or for the honorable mention, you can most likely avoid the extreme roller coaster type of pattern. Remember how bad the Lakers were a few years ago, and how bad the Mavericks used to be a few years before that, and so on? Maybe the Nuggets are only trying to avoid the cellar, and they know that if you go for it all and fail, you sometimes get rewarded for that with a first class ticket to the cellar.
______________________________________________
And Karl is your man if you are thinking in that stupidly cautious way, because one thing Karl is good at is avoiding putting a really bad product on the court.
In the final analysis, if this is the overly cautious thinking that is really behind the Nuggets right now, the most important first step in changing that and becoming an ordinary sports franchise that goes for it all and isn't worried about falling into the cellar if it fails is to show most or all of the Nuggets coaches the door, including of course Mr. Karl. Whether or not anyone from the front office also needs to be shown the door will depend largely on how they treat Carmelo Anthony in the coming days and months, and what they get for him if they do pull the trigger on a trade.
_____________________________________________
They got Iverson and everyone and his uncle was fooled into thinking that the Nuggets really, really wanted to win it all. But then they didn't make the slightest change in Iverson's role compared to his role in Philadelphia, so now it was sort of the Denver 76'ers. The Nuggets have now reached almost the exact same dead end that the 76'ers reached.
Mr. Kroenke and company went all out to bring the Nuggets up from the cellar and they succeeded big time and everyone needs to be eternally grateful for that. They made absolutely sure that the Nuggets were going to be safe from the cellar for years to come (unless Karl somehow causes a doomsday scenario by for example sponsoring a dumb Melo trade) and that the Nuggets were going to meet all major franchise objectives other than being competitive in the playoffs.
But since we fans are now obsessed about the Nuggets not being able to win in the playoffs, naturally we are focused on that one thing they have not been able to do. They have done a reasonably good job overall, but they have been blind with respect to the coaching aspect, and I for one want them to do an outstanding job. I want to grade them A or A- instead of B- or C+.
____________________________________________
About the only time teams like the Spurs run iso plays is on fast breaks.
And because of the tougher inside defending, you can't win in the playoffs without good 3-point shooting. This made it mandatory that JR Smith's minutes NOT be strictly limited as they were. It was also mandatory for Carmelo Anthony to ramp up his 3-point shooting. While Anthony's accuracy was way up from beyond the arc, his attempts actually fell slightly short of his career average, which constitutes another major coaching error. It was much more important for Anthony to get open and attempt and make more threes than it was for him to make more rebounds, but only the latter was accomplished.
___________________________________________
Speaking broadly, the Nuggets have three ongoing nightmares.
1. The coaching staff does not know how pro teams win playoff games. Karl actually virtually admitted this in public!
2. The front court is essentially never healthy and in sync.
3. The back court is totally hosed up because there is no established, playoff calibur PG nor, shockingly, even an understanding among the coaches of the importance of the position.
The fact that the team won 50 games despite those crippling problems proves that this team mostly played their best under the circumstances this past season. But losing in the playoffs was obviously inevitable, and will continue to be so unless the above is solved.
As a rough estimate, solving any one of the above would get the Nuggets' current roster in line to win a playoff series. Solving two of the three could get the Nuggets to the Western finals. If all three were solved, the Nuggets would then and only then be candidates to possibly reach the NBA finals.
But these nightmares are ongoing. Currently there is no end in sight to these bad dreams. Well, it could be the curse that won't let the team wake up.
