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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Defenses, Fouling Rates, and Winning Championships, and Don't be Snookered About the Nuggets' 2008-09 Defense

Let's get things straight regarding the 2008-09 Nuggets defense. There are several myths about it, two of them huge:

MYTH: The Nuggets are one of the very best defensive teams in the NBA this year.
REALITY: This is false, unless you consider 8th best to be one of the very best. Seven teams all had better defenses this year. Here is the defensive efficiency for the top 15 teams (points allowed per 100 possessions, with the sample being more than 6,000 possessions) so even tiny differences mean a significant, real world difference:

DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY AND FOULS PER GAME
NBA BEST 15 DEFENSES
2008-09 SEASON

1 Orlando Magic 101.9//20.3 fouls per game
2 Boston Celtics 102.3//23.1 fouls per game
3 Cleveland Cavaliers 102.4//20.3 fouls per game
4 Houston Rockets 104.0//18.9 fouls per game
5 San Antonio Spurs 104.3//18.9 fouls per game
6 Los Angeles Lakers 104.7//20.7 fouls per game
7 Charlotte Bobcats 106.1//21.4 fouls per game
8 Denver Nuggets 106.8//22.9 fouls per game
9 New Orleans Hornets 107.0//20.3 fouls per game
10 Utah Jazz 107.2/22.3 fouls per game
11 Atlanta Hawks 107.6//19.6 fouls per game
12 Miami Heat 107.6//20.7 fouls per game
13 Portland Trail Blazers 107.8//20.4 fouls per game
14 Philadelphia 76ers 107.8//20.1 fouls per game
15 Milwaukee Bucks 107.9//24.2 fouls per game

As you can see, the Nuggets don't really have a top rated defense. Houston, the Lakers, the Magic, the Cavaliers, the Celtics, the Spurs, even the Bobcats have a more efficient defense this year. The Nuggets are fronting that they have the best defense; they are as much out to intimidate offensive players as they are to defeat them within the rules.

You know, you likely can not possibly have one of the very best defenses in the League if you insist on being one of the very fastest paced teams. You tell me how you are going to be one of the top 3-4 teams in the NBA defensively while also being a very fast paced team. I honestly have no idea how you would do that. It seems to me that the Nuggets' strategies are not fitting together all that well here.

Notice too that the Nuggets have used a very large number of fouls this year, 22.9 fouls per game, or 1,875 fouls. This is much more than last year, when it was 21.1 fouls per game, or 1,730 fouls. Notice that seemingly small differences in the per game rate translate into a large number.

Remember always that an unknown number of fouls are not called. Quest is on a long term quest to come up with at least a very rough estimate of how many fouls are not called. Don't expect the results of that complicated investigation for awhile.

In fact, why don't we look at the complete list of fouls per game. You will notice that high rates of fouling are generally associated with losing teams, not winning teams.

But for the losing teams, the high rate of fouling is due mostly to lack of defensive skill, whereas the Nuggets, a way above average but not an extremely high defensive skills team as the Jazz are, have clearly adopted a high fouling rate intentionally.

The Nuggets are using what defensive skills they have in overdrive. They are fouling more than they should be based on their skill level. In order to win the Quest for the Ring, you have to correctly calibrate your fouling rate to your defensive skill level. The more highly skilled you are, the more fouls you are "entitled" to. And vice versa.

If you foul more times than you are entitled to, you will eventually run up against a brick wall formed by the League, the referees, and by the high quality offense you are playing in the playoffs. You will not win a Championship doing that.

A team in defensive overdrive leads to flagrant fouls, technical fouls, injuries, and pregame meetings between League officials and referees, so that marching orders can be given regarding how to keep the game under control. And probably other bad things, like loss of morale and enthusiasm.

FOULS PER GAME
2008-09 NBA Regular Season
Even tiny differences are significant

1 SanAntonioSpurs 18.85
2 HoustonRockets 18.94
3 TorontoRaptors 19.43
4 DallasMavericks 19.51
5 AtlantaHawks 19.65
6 LAClippers 20.12
7 Philadelphia76ers 20.12
8 OklahomaCityThunder 20.18
9 ClevelandCavaliers 20.28
10 OrlandoMagic 20.29
11 NOrleansHornets 20.30
12 PortlandTrailBlazers 20.38
13 NYKnicks 20.39
14 WashingtonWizards 20.48
15 PhoenixSuns 20.62
16 MiamiHeat 20.68
17 LALakers 20.71
18 ChicagoBulls 20.84
19 DetroitPistons 20.88
20 CharlotteBobcats 21.39
21 MemphisGrizzlies 21.67
22 MinnesotaT-wolves 21.77
23 UtahJazz 22.32
24 NJNets 22.41
25 GSWarriors 22.46
26 DenverNuggets 22.87
27 IndianaPacers 23.11
28 BostonCeltics 23.13
29 SacramentoKings 23.29
30 MilwaukeeBucks 24.22

A difference of .10 is 8 fouls, a difference of 1.00 is 82 fouls. Check this out for example. The Houston Rockets committed 1,553 fouls this season, whereas the Nuggets committed 1,875 fouls this season! And the Rockets finished as the 4th best defense (104.0 points allowed per 100 possessions) whereas the Nuggets finished as the 8th best defense (106.8 points allowed per 100 possessions).

So obviously you do not have to be a high fouling team to have a really good defense. Defenses can win Championships, but it is much easier for them to win them if they are medium or low fouling defenses than if they are high fouling defenses. Never forget that.

Very, very few Championships have been won by great defenses that are also high fouling defenses. The Celtics' 2008 Championship was one of only a tiny number of Championships won by a high fouling rate team.

And remember, not all fouls are even detected, so the differences between the fouling rates are understated. And also remember, there is an unwritten rule that officials can not call more than a grand total of between 50 and 70 fouls in a game, due to how extremely ugly the game gets (all free throws) if it goes beyond that. There has to be a limit.

DO YOU NEED TO BE A HIGH FOULING TEAM TO CONTEND FOR A CHAMPIONSHIP?
Definitely not. You are most definitely NOT supposed to have to be a high fouling team in order to contend for a Championship. You should generally not do what George Karl has done this year. You should not intentionally run up the foul counts, in an attempt to intimidate and "beat down" the other team, even if you know that by doing that you can get cheap, easy scores off of uncalled fouls.

Why not? Simply because sooner or later you will run into a brick wall. A team with a full scale offense and a quality defense will not be very much intimidated or disrupted by all the fouling, especially when they get very ticked off about it.

They will adapt by, for example, passing more and by driving into the lane in such a way that the referees are more likely to call a foul than not. There are different ways to drive, and some ways are better than others when it comes to getting the foul call. The best offensive teams know what to do to get those foul calls, even if it's like pulling teeth with a given crew of referees.

Also, sooner or later, the referrees will throw the book at you, although it may not be as soon as I thought, laugh out loud. How many games can you afford to just about forfeit when the referees do throw the book at you? You may not be able to afford any such games.

WHAT ABOUT THE CELTICS AND THE JAZZ?
The Celtics and the Jazz have high fouling rates also, so what's up with that?

The Utah Jazz have, according to the Defensive Subrating of the Real Player Ratings, five players with defensive skill levels higher than anyone on the Nuggets:

UTAH JAZZ DEFENDERS
DEFENDING SUBRATING
2008-09 SEASON
As of Feb. 25, 2009

Andrei Kirilenko 0.611
Matt Harpring 0.563
Brevin Knight 0.550
Kosta Koufos 0.547
Paul Millsap 0.529
Kyle Korver 0.461
Carlos Boozer 0.356
Mehmet Okur 0.291
Ronnie Price 0.271
Ronnie Brewer 0.225
Deron Williams 0.147
C.J. Miles 0.070

BOSTON CELTICS DEFENDERS
DEFENDING SUBRATING
2008-09 SEASON
As of Feb. 25, 2009
Kevin Garnett 0.539
Leon Powe 0.429
Gabe Pruitt 0.382
Kendrick Perkins 0.355
Rajon Rondo 0.328
Paul Pierce 0.322
Ray Allen 0.322
Tony Allen 0.290
Eddie House 0.277
Glen Davis 0.230
Brian Scalabrine 0.052

DENVER NUGGETS DEFENDERS
DEFENDING SUBRATING
2008-09 SEASON
As of Feb. 25, 2009
Nene Hilario 0.493
Chris Andersen 0.431
Kenyon Martin 0.415
J.R. Smith 0.409
Renaldo Balkman 0.379
Carmelo Anthony 0.362
Anthony Carter 0.329
Chauncey Billups† 0.293
Linas Kleiza 0.201
Dahntay Jones 0.195

THE UTAH JAZZ VERSUS THE DENVER NUGGETS DEFENSIVELY AND OVERALL
Notice that the Jazz are more loaded with very highly skilled defenders than are the Nuggets. This gives them a "license" to foul a lot and not be considered to be in the wrong.

You have the option to have a high fouling rate if you load up on defensively skilled players and expect to get wins with them. If you know for a fact you are one of the most defensively skilled teams in your League, in the top 15% or so, and your players prefer to play rough, than go ahead and have a high foul rate, if you have some luck and understanding from the refs then it might work out for you.

But you had better be sure you know how to keep on the good side of the refs.

But wait a minute, you say, the Nuggets loaded up on defensively skilled players and expected to get wins from them, so they should have a high fouling rate too, right?

Wrong, for several reasons. First, the Jazz have been loading their team like this for years and years, whereas the Nuggets are a Johnny come lately. The Nuggets have not learned how to run a heavy fouling defense without having the referees throw the book at them. Second, the Jazz' highly skilled defenders are very highly paid, established veterans who are well known by the referees. The Nuggets are not. Third, the Jazz' defenders are more skilled than are the Nuggets defenders; they have more skill to back up their fouling. Fourth, the Jazz run a traditional, conventional, high quality offense, whereas the Nuggets are trying to live off the fouls (the uncalled fouls to be exact) themselves on offense.

THE BOSTON CELTICS: THE 2007-08 CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM, IN 2008-09, AND VERSUS THE NUGGETS
As for the Celtics, even with Garnett they are this year not so much skilled defenders as they are rough and tough defenders in the Nuggets mode.

The Celtics were a high fouling team last year too, when they won the Quest. But they were a much more highly skilled team last year defensively than this year. Last year the Celtics allowed only 98.9 points per 100 possessions, while this year it is 102.3. Last year the Celtics were by a country mile the best defense in the NBA, so the risk they were running that the referees would throw the book at them for fouling a lot was low or very low.

But overall, the Nuggets are on the right track, because they are just doing what the Celtics have been doing? Right?

Wrong. Boston used the heavy fouling aspect of it's League leading defense more as an insurance policy to win the Championship than as the primary weapon to win it. The primary weapon was the extremely high quality defense itself.

Also, and just as importantly, the Celtics last year had a well run and powerful offense, spearheaded by Garnett down low, Ray Allen up high, Paul Pierce all over the place, and Rajon Rondo being a truly outstanding point guard. They had a relatively slow pace, and did not heavily rely on easy scores off of missed foul calls and long rebounds.

Although the Nuggets' offense this year is about as good as the Celtics' Quest winning offense was last year, the way they were run was completely different. The Celtics, unlike the Nuggets, did not heavily piggyback their offense on their defense.

During last years' Celtics' Quest, the Hawks took the Celtics to seven games in round one, the Cavaliers took the Celtics to seven games in round two, and the Pistons took the Celtics to six games in round three, before the Celtics won the Quest for the Ring by defeating the Lakers 4-2 in the 2008 Championsip. So obviously, even for the Celtics, with their much more traditional and conventional offense than the Nuggets have this year, and their far higher defensive quality, winning the Championship with a high fouling rate was a risky strategy.

It's substantially easier, and less risky along the way, to win a Championship with a medium or low fouling rate than it is to win one with a high fouling rate.

If you bring a quality offense to the court and you have a very high quality, intimidating defense that you know for sure can benefit from a high fouling rate, then go for it. If the refs don't like you for some reason you will not win a Championship that way. If you lose a game or two in a key series due to flagrant fouls, technical fouls, or a fight, you can be bounced out right there.

But if you know how to stay on the good side of the referees, and so they keep liking you, the Celtics and a tiny number of other Championship teams have demonstrated that you can win a ring even if you foul early and often.

How exactly you stay on the good side of the referees has been discussed from time to time at Quest, and will be again in the future.

But if your offense is based more on smoke and mirrors, if it's dependent almost completely on that high fouling defense and on fast breaking, then you really have no business running a high fouling rate defense, unless you have a Utah Jazz level of defender quality, unless in other words you have one of the very most highly skilled defensive teams.

If you do that, as the Nuggets are doing this year, whether or not the refs throw the book at you, and if they don't you might get a few playoff wins, you will not be winning a Championship with inadequate playmaking and no offensive identity in the traditional sense.

It is far, far easier to win a Chanmpionship with a quality offense that is not too far off the beaten track in terms of pace and playmaking, and with a medium or low fouling rate, than it is to win one with a high fouling rate and an offense fueled off of that.

Moreover, you can much more easily win a Championship with a great defense that has a low fouling rate than one that has a high fouling rate. Do not make the stupid mistake to think that you have to have a high fouling rate in order to have a high quality defense. Do not try to mock San Antonio for example, the joke will only be on you.

THE FOUR CHAMPIONSHIPS OF THE SPURS
San Antonio won four Championships, in 1999, 2003, 2005, and 2007, more so with defense than with offense. But they in every case committed a lot fewer fouls than their opponents did. And they did have a traditional, conventional, high quality offense, and one not highly dependent on their defense.

In summary, a high fouling rate is often a cheap shortcut that fails in the playoffs, with some exceptions as discussed in this report.

SUMMARY: PREREQUISITES FOR BEING A HIGH FOULING TEAM
1. You are one of the very best defensive teams in the NBA, one of top five at a rock bottom minimum, preferably one of the top three.

2. Your players prefer or are better at a rougher, higher fouling type of defending than a more skill oriented fouling.

3. The majority of your defensive players who you are going to allow to foul a lot are veterans who are well known by most of the referees to be skilled defensive players. And your veteran defensive players know how to remain on the good side of the referees. It's easy to tell how good any defensive player who has been given the green light to foul a lot is at staying on the good side of the referees: how often does he get into foul trouble? Foul trouble and especially fouling out has to be pretty rare, or you can not successfully use a high fouling strategy.

4. Though it does not have to be necessarily one of the best offenses in the League, you need to have a good quality offense that is not too far off the beaten track in terms of pace and the way it is run. It should have playmaking and offensive identity.

5. Your offense should not be excessively, extremely dependent on your defense.

If and only if you meet EVERY ONE of the above, as the Boston Celtics did last year, but as the Nuggets do not meet this year, go for it. Run the rough, heavy fouling type of defense. But don't get carried away now and end up thrown out of games!

SUMMARY OF THE NUGGETS 2008-09
George Karl's scheme this year, to put it simply, is to say to hell with offense, I don't even want to hear the word offense. I have never won a title, and I have decided to conduct this experiment where I see how far I can get with heavy duty fouling, and scoring as many easy points as possible off my defense.

When all is said and done, it's nothing more than a relatively cheap, short-cut way to run a team. On the other hand, it was enough for Denver to finally win a few playoff games, the first four of them though thanks also to New Orleans being the walking wounded, and one more of them due to the referees botching the intentional foul call at the end of game 3.

MYTH: The Denver Nuggets have a better defense this year than last year.
REALITY: The Nuggets had a better defense last year. That's right, you the fooled public. I repeat, the Nuggets had a better defense last year. Not a whole lot better, but better:

Nuggets 2008-09: 106.8 points allowed per 100 possessions, 8th ranked in NBA
Nuggets 2007-08: 106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions, 10th ranked in NBA

But you see, to put it simply, last year the Nuggets did defense the right way. And this year they are doing it the wrong way.

The Nuggets started the 2009 playoffs by beating up on the walking wounded Hornets. But anyone can beat up on a heavily banged up team. So what?

THE CURRENT SITUATION
Last night, the Mavericks tied the series 2-2 with the Thuggets with a masterful 119-117 win over the supposedly top rated Denver defense. 119 points. And now it's 2-2 in this series.

Oh wait, the referees really, really have a lot of disturbing affection for the Thuggets, so it's not 2-2. My bad.



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WELCOME TO THE QUEST--THINGS ARE VERY DIFFERENT HERE

WELCOME TO THE QUEST FOR THE RING, ALSO KNOWN AS THE REAL ZONE
This is one of the most serious basketball sites on the internet, focusing on how and why playoff games and NBA Championships are won. We also love to take comedy and music breaks, but not every day.

WELCOME TO THE QUEST FOR THE RING. YOU HAVE LEFT THE HYPE ZONE AND HAVE ARRIVED IN THE REAL ZONE. Please check any rose colored glasses at the door. The Hype Zone is where you can find out about the personalities and the styles and how popular they are and what they are up to lately. The Real Zone is where we DO NOT think personalities and styles and how popular or unpopular they are things to waste time on just for ratings or traffic.

Instead of hype, here we post as much truth about how NBA playoff games and Championships are won as we can 365 days a year and at at any hour of the day or night. Please have a productive visit, and a nice trip back to the Hype Zone when your visit is over.


A SMALL SAMPLE OF CURRENT AND SOON TO COME QUEST FOR THE RING REAL ZONE TOPICS
--How and Why the 2010 Los Angeles Lakers, the 2010 Cleveland Cavaliers, and the 2010 Boston Celtics Win or Lose in the 2010 Playoffs
--The right "amount of" LeBron James
--How players we know deserve to win a first or second Ring can get one, highly talented players such as Chris Paul, Chris Bosh, Rajon Rondo, and Dwyane Wade.
--How and why the Denver Nuggets Franchise has repeatedly fooled the public, and possibly themselves for that matter. (No, we still have not completely finished with the Nuggets, thanks to how successful they were in 2008-09, albeit there was no chance of a Championship; Continuing, much done already)
--How and why much of what you may think you know about Allen Iverson is dead wrong (Continuing, much done already)
--How and why the playoffs are something completely different from the regular season, and why your team may be simply not prepared for them despite a lot of regular season wins

A SMALL SAMPLE OF ALREADY COMPLETED QUEST FOR THE RING REAL ZONE TOPICS
--How and why Carmelo Anthony has been downsized due to a quest for "well-roundedness," and why this is really bad
--How and why the owner of the Nuggets shortchanged and cheated his team out of a possible Championship
--How and why being physical alone can not win you a Championship
--How and why the Nuggets' high fouling defense will take them only so far
--How and why George Karl is doing more harm than good with respect to J.R. Smith
--How and why George Karl's obsession with personalities is wrong and bad for any team
--How and why George Karl and the Nuggets can not win in the playoffs (2007, 2008) or a West final (2009). If Quest commits a foul, we own up to it, as we do right here: we thought the Nuggets could not win in the playoffs in 2009. They did win 10 games before being eliminated by the Lakers in the West final, so in response we corrected our evaluation of what you can do with the Nuggets' unique 2009 approach to basketball without, however, going overboard.
--How and why George Karl cheats the fans and the franchise out of performance and development of "reserve" players
--How and why playmaking is so important, probably more than you think, and how you manage playmakers correctly.
--How and why you have probably been fooled regarding the Nuggets' 2008 off-season and their 2008-09 defense

UNIQUE SITE DESIGN
The Quest is organized in a completely different way from what you are used to on the internet. We have combined the best features of the blog and the conventional web site formats, the latter being the norm for large organizations. However, since we do not like the idea of using flash to "wow" visitors, we do not use flash except within video and other discrete components. So we are state of the art in terms of expanding the power of visitors to get exactly what they want very quickly, but we do not have the latest flash gadgetry just to "keep up with the Joneses". More broadly, you will find that Quest for the Ring never seeks to keep up with the Joneses, simply because the Joneses never had the nerve and the intelligence to do what we do.

2009: A PROFESSIONAL ORGANIZATION COMES TO QUEST
Just before the 2009-10 season tipped, the very large number of features and links to important resources were strategically reorganized and placed within an easy to use and clearly labelled section system. So ended the era of the rapidly developed, sprawling and slightly disorganized Quest, and so began the era of the big but under careful control and extremely well organized and professional Quest for the Ring.

The Quest Home Page consists of numerous types of content, organized carefully into the new sections as of November 2009. Features can be any educational and / or entertaining thing you can think of, including everything from music players to videos to photos to breaking NBA news readers to top teams performance breakdown pages.

Quest for the Ring has a world class link system for those who know what they are looking for and wish to find and engage the appropriate link, But the Quest visitor does not HAVE to hunt for links to have an intelligent and entertaining experience. The Quest home page is big enough and chock loaded enough that link hunting is not absolutely necessary the way it normally is at many other basketball sites.

THERE MUST BE TEN WAYS TO READ REPORTS [PAUL SIMON LOL]
There are close to ten ways to find out about, select, and read Quest Reports! The standard, traditional blog presentation is available as one of the many ways to choose, access, and read reports. On the Home Page, only one report loads in the traditional format in order to keep this page as quick loading as possible.
See the "Total Freedom of Navigation" section for complete details about how to find, choose, and read reports.

One key place to find Older Reports is on sequentially numbered url's thequestforthering2.blogspot.com, thequestforthering3.blogspot.com, and so forth.

THE QUEST USER GUIDE VERSUS an about page
Other sites most often have undeveloped and limited in scope "about pages" which is usually all they have for what we call a "User Guide". Our User Guide material is a vast improvement, quantitatively and qualitatively, over a mere "about page" While many other sites don't help their visitors to make the best use of the content, we do. Also, the User Guide is chock loaded with invitations to visitors to participate in all kinds of ways, including for example advertising for free, link exchange, and getting a team site supported by Quest.

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QUEST REPORTS #81 TO #100 GOING BACK IN TIME

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VIDEOS

QUEST FOR THE RING VIDEOS--The primary Quest video page with video juke boxes for all 30 teams

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MOST RECENT LEAGUE WIDE REAL PLAYER RATINGS

Note: This is generally a once a year, end of season Report. For many teams and players, more recent ratings are often available.

NBA REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2009-10 REGULAR SEASON

POSITION AND TEAM CODES
In the Real Player and related ratings shown for the League, two codes follow each players' name (and before his rating). The first code tells you the players' team and the second one tells you his position.

TEAM CODES
ATLA Atlanta Hawks
BOST Boston Celtics
CHAR Charlotte Bobcats
CHIC Chicago Bulls
CLEV Cleveland Cavaliers
DALL Dallas Mavericks
DENV Denver Nuggets
DETR Detroit Pistons
GOLS Golden State Warriors
HOUS Houston Rockets
INDI Indiana Pacers
LACL Los Angeles Clippers
LALK Los Angeles Lakers
MEMP Memphis Grizzlies
MIAM Miami Heat
MILW Milwaukee Bucks
MINN Minnesota Timberwolves
NJRS New Jersey Nets
NORL New Orleans Hornets
NWYR New York Knicks
OKLA Oklahoma Thunder
ORLA Orlando Magic
PHIL Philadelphia 76'ers
PHNX Phoenix Suns
PORT Portland Trailblazers
SACR Sacramento Kings
SANA San Antonio Spurs
TORO Toronto Raptors
UTAH Utah Jazz
WASH Washington Wizards

POSITION CODES
PG Point Guard
SG Shooting Guard
SF Small Forward
PF Power Forward
C Center

SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.820 0.899
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.760 0.819
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man 0.640 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Preferably should not start 0.580 0.639
Marginal Role Player / Generally should not start 0.520 0.579
Poor Player / Should never start 0.460 0.519
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.459
Extremely Poor Player .399 and less

NBA REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2009-10 REGULAR SEASON

--Shows the real quality of players
--Includes all tracked actions and also includes untracked or hidden defending
--The average Real Player Rating for all players who play 300 minutes or more is about .700.
--All players who have played at least 300 minutes are included here and in all other ratings to follow in coming days

MAJOR HISTORIC SUPERSTARS
1 LeBron James CLEV SF 1.382
2 Tim Duncan SANA PF 1.254
3 Chris Paul NORL PG 1.202
4 Dwight Howard ORLA C 1.121
5 Andrew Bogut MILW C 1.112

HISTORIC SUPERSTARS
6 Steve Nash PHNX PG 1.095
7 Jason Kidd DALL PG 1.092
8 Rajon Rondo BOST PG 1.084
9 Deron Williams UTAH PG 1.076
10 Dwyane Wade MIAM SG 1.075
11 Marcus Camby LACL C 1.071
12 Pau Gasol LALK PF 1.065
13 Greg Oden PORT C 1.060
14 Kevin Durant OKLA SF 1.051
15 Dirk Nowitzki DALL PF 1.034
16 Josh Smith ATLA SF 1.033
17 Kevin Garnett BOST PF 1.033
18 Manu Ginobili SANA SG 1.023
19 Kobe Bryant LALK SG 1.005

SUPERSTARS
20 Carlos Boozer UTAH PF 0.994
21 Lamar Odom LALK PF 0.982
22 Andrei Kirilenko UTAH SF 0.976
23 Chris Bosh TORO PF 0.972
24 David Lee NWYR C 0.971
25 Al Horford ATLA C 0.970
26 Marcus Camby PORT C 0.967
27 Jameer Nelson ORLA PG 0.959
28 Joakim Noah CHIC C 0.955
29 John Salmons MILW SF 0.937
30 Andrew Bynum LALK C 0.936
31 Troy Murphy INDI PF 0.934
32 Kevin Love MINN PF 0.934
33 Anderson Varejao CLEV C 0.933
34 Brendan Haywood DALL C 0.929
35 Vince Carter ORLA SG 0.928
36 Gerald Wallace CHAR SF 0.918
37 Sergio Rodriguez SACR PG 0.908
38 Tyrus Thomas CHIC PF 0.904
39 Derrick Rose CHIC PG 0.903

STARS
40 Baron Davis LACL PG 0.899
41 Russell Westbrook OKLA PG 0.897
42 Zach Randolph MEMP PF 0.885
43 Danny Granger INDI SF 0.885
44 Marc Gasol MEMP C 0.885
45 Joe Johnson ATLA SG 0.883
46 Chauncey Billups DENV PG 0.883
47 Roy Hibbert INDI C 0.880
48 Ben Wallace DETR C 0.877
49 Andre Miller PORT PG 0.874
50 Carmelo Anthony DENV SF 0.874
51 Brandon Jennings MILW PG 0.870
52 Tyrus Thomas CHAR PF 0.870
53 A.J. Price INDI PG 0.868
54 Paul Millsap UTAH PF 0.866
55 Craig Smith LACL PF 0.865
56 Samuel Dalembert PHIL C 0.864
57 Andre Iguodala PHIL SG 0.858
58 Raymond Felton CHAR PG 0.857
59 Delonte West CLEV SG 0.856
60 Al Jefferson MINN C 0.856
61 Eric Maynor OKLA PG 0.856
62 Serge Ibaka OKLA PF 0.855
63 Nene Hilario DENV C 0.852
64 Chris Andersen DENV PF 0.849
65 Shaquille O'Neal CLEV C 0.842
66 Brandon Roy PORT SG 0.842
67 Ryan Anderson ORLA PF 0.840
68 Antonio McDyess SANA PF 0.839
69 Tony Parker SANA PG 0.837
70 Paul Pierce BOST SF 0.836
71 Mo Williams CLEV PG 0.835
72 Kyle Lowry HOUS PG 0.835
73 Ersan Ilyasova MILW SF 0.828
74 Amare Stoudemire PHNX PF 0.828
75 Luke Ridnour MILW PG 0.827
76 Erick Dampier DALL C 0.826
77 Tyreke Evans SACR PG 0.825
78 Andris Biedrins GOLS C 0.825
79 Kyle Korver UTAH SG 0.824
80 Anthony Randolph GOLS PF 0.820

VERY GOOD PLAYERS / SOLID STARTERS
81 Eric Maynor UTAH PG 0.819
82 Carlos Arroyo MIAM PG 0.819
83 Antawn Jamison CLEV PF 0.819
84 Nazr Mohammed CHAR C 0.818
85 Luol Deng CHIC SF 0.817
86 Dorell Wright MIAM SG 0.817
87 LaMarcus Aldridge PORT PF 0.817
88 Carl Landry HOUS PF 0.816
89 Luis Scola HOUS PF 0.816
90 Nick Collison OKLA PF 0.812
91 Carlos Delfino MILW SG 0.809
92 Kendrick Perkins BOST C 0.807
93 Jermaine O'Neal MIAM C 0.805
94 Nate Robinson NWYR PG 0.804
95 Goran Dragic PHNX PG 0.803
96 Mike Bibby ATLA PG 0.803
97 Stephen Curry GOLS PG 0.803
98 Mehmet Okur UTAH C 0.800
99 Jose Calderon TORO PG 0.797
100 Jason Terry DALL SG 0.791
101 Ronnie Price UTAH PG 0.784
102 DeJuan Blair SANA PF 0.784
103 Chris Kaman LACL C 0.783
104 Shaun Livingston WASH PG 0.783
105 Joel Przybilla PORT C 0.782
106 David West NORL PF 0.781
107 John Salmons CHIC SF 0.776
108 Matt Barnes ORLA SF 0.775
109 Darren Collison NORL PG 0.775
110 Ronny Turiaf GOLS C 0.774
111 Udonis Haslem MIAM PF 0.774
112 Shawn Marion DALL SF 0.772
113 Jason Williams ORLA PG 0.771
114 Keyon Dooling NJRS PG 0.771
115 Andray Blatche WASH C 0.770
116 James Harden OKLA SG 0.770
117 Brook Lopez NJRS C 0.770
118 Ray Allen BOST SG 0.770
119 Amir Johnson TORO SF 0.769
120 Ty Lawson DENV PG 0.768
121 Beno Udrih SACR PG 0.768
122 Chuck Hayes HOUS PF 0.765
123 Matt Bonner SANA PF 0.763
124 Reggie Evans TORO PF 0.763
125 Gilbert Arenas WASH PG 0.760

MAJOR ROLE PLAYERS / GOOD ENOUGH TO START
126 Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLEV C 0.758
127 Rasheed Wallace BOST PF 0.757
128 Lou Williams PHIL SG 0.756
129 Stephen Jackson CHAR SF 0.754
130 Dan Gadzuric MILW C 0.754
131 Jamario Moon CLEV SF 0.754
132 Ron Artest LALK SF 0.752
133 Rodney Stuckey DETR PG 0.749
134 Shelden Williams BOST PF 0.748
135 Oleksiy Pecherov MINN C 0.748
136 Aaron Brooks HOUS PG 0.747
137 Boris Diaw CHAR PF 0.746
138 C.J. Watson GOLS PG 0.746
139 Brendan Haywood WASH C 0.744
140 Emeka Okafor NORL C 0.742
141 Taj Gibson CHIC PF 0.741
142 J.R. Smith DENV SG 0.738
143 Mike Miller WASH SF 0.732
144 Channing Frye PHNX C 0.731
145 Louis Amundson PHNX PF 0.731
146 Elton Brand PHIL PF 0.726
147 D.J. Mbenga LALK C 0.725
148 Tayshaun Prince DETR SF 0.724
149 Francisco Garcia SACR SG 0.724
150 Tyler Hansbrough INDI PF 0.724
151 Trevor Ariza HOUS SG 0.723
152 Allen Iverson PHIL SG 0.722
153 Rashard Lewis ORLA PF 0.721
154 Richard Jefferson SANA SF 0.721
155 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute MILW SF 0.721
156 Jamal Crawford ATLA SG 0.721
157 Brad Miller CHIC C 0.720
158 Josh Boone NJRS C 0.718
159 Jason Richardson PHNX SG 0.718
160 Sebastian Telfair LACL PG 0.717
161 Marvin Williams ATLA PF 0.716
162 David Andersen HOUS C 0.715
163 Caron Butler DALL SF 0.715
164 Michael Beasley MIAM PF 0.714
165 George Hill SANA PG 0.713
166 Ronnie Brewer UTAH SG 0.712
167 D.J. Augustin CHAR PG 0.712
168 Monta Ellis GOLS PG 0.711
169 Sean May SACR PF 0.710
170 Anthony Tolliver GOLS PF 0.709
171 Kenyon Martin DENV PF 0.709
172 Tyson Chandler CHAR C 0.709
173 Rodrigue Beaubois DALL PG 0.707
174 Stephen Jackson GOLS SF 0.704
175 Shane Battier HOUS SF 0.703
176 Stephen Graham CHAR SF 0.702
177 Mike Conley MEMP PG 0.702
178 Earl Watson INDI PG 0.701
179 T.J. Ford INDI PG 0.700

GOOD ROLE PLAYERS / OFTEN GOOD 6TH MAN PLAYERS
180 Ramon Sessions MINN PG 0.699
181 Corey Maggette GOLS SF 0.699
182 Marcin Gortat ORLA PF 0.698
183 Terrence Williams NJRS SG 0.698
184 Jarrett Jack TORO PG 0.698
185 James Singleton WASH SF 0.696
186 JaVale McGee WASH C 0.694
187 Jose Juan Barea DALL PG 0.694
188 Marcus Thornton NORL SG 0.693
189 Daequan Cook MIAM SG 0.691
190 Jordan Farmar LALK PG 0.689
191 Kirk Hinrich CHIC PG 0.689
192 Carl Landry SACR PF 0.689
193 Shannon Brown LALK PG 0.687
194 Anthony Carter DENV PG 0.686
195 Jason Thompson SACR PF 0.686
196 Mike Dunleavy INDI SF 0.686
197 Robin Lopez PHNX C 0.684
198 Spencer Hawes SACR C 0.680
199 Rudy Fernandez PORT SG 0.678
200 Drew Gooden LACL PF 0.678
201 Steve Blake LACL PG 0.677
202 Bobby Simmons NJRS SF 0.676
203 Larry Hughes NWYR SG 0.675
204 Jerry Stackhouse MILW SF 0.675
205 Quentin Richardson MIAM SG 0.675
206 Rudy Gay MEMP SF 0.675
207 Darko Milicic MINN C 0.674
208 Drew Gooden DALL PF 0.674
209 Reggie Williams GOLS SF 0.673
210 Ronald Murray CHAR SG 0.671
211 Grant Hill PHNX SF 0.669
212 Nate Robinson BOST PG 0.668
213 Travis Outlaw LACL SF 0.668
214 Steve Blake PORT PG 0.667
215 Devin Harris NJRS PG 0.665
216 Antawn Jamison WASH PF 0.665
217 Danilo Gallinari NWYR SF 0.664
218 Wilson Chandler NWYR SF 0.664
219 Gerald Henderson CHAR SG 0.664
220 Tony Allen BOST SG 0.663
221 Kyrylo Fesenko UTAH C 0.662
222 Anthony Morrow GOLS SG 0.661
223 Jordan Hill HOUS PF 0.661
224 Jared Dudley PHNX SF 0.660
225 Daniel Gibson CLEV PG 0.660
226 Jeff Green OKLA PF 0.659
227 Josh McRoberts INDI PF 0.659
228 Anthony Johnson ORLA PG 0.658
229 J.J. Redick ORLA SG 0.658
230 Al Harrington NWYR PF 0.655
231 Luther Head INDI PG 0.654
232 Nicolas Batum PORT SF 0.653
233 Theo Ratliff CHAR C 0.650
234 Mario Chalmers MIAM PG 0.648
235 Brandon Bass ORLA PF 0.648
236 Kris Humphries NJRS PF 0.646
237 Chris Duhon NWYR PG 0.643
238 Nenad Krstic OKLA C 0.642
239 Kris Humphries DALL PF 0.642

SATISFACTORY ROLE PLAYERS / USUALLY DO NOT START
240 Rasho Nesterovic TORO C 0.637
241 Hedo Turkoglu TORO SF 0.635
242 Johan Petro DENV C 0.635
243 Randy Foye WASH PG 0.634
244 Jrue Holiday PHIL PG 0.633
245 Mickael Pietrus ORLA SG 0.631
246 Jared Jeffries NWYR PF 0.627
247 Leandro Barbosa PHNX SG 0.626
248 Joel Anthony MIAM C 0.624
249 O.J. Mayo MEMP SG 0.622
250 Chase Budinger HOUS SF 0.621
251 Roger Mason SANA SG 0.619
252 Caron Butler WASH SF 0.617
253 Peja Stojakovic NORL SF 0.615
254 Marreese Speights PHIL PF 0.613
255 Jamaal Tinsley MEMP PG 0.613
256 Bobby Brown NORL PG 0.611
257 Jonas Jerebko DETR SF 0.610
258 Omri Casspi SACR SF 0.609
259 Kurt Thomas MILW PF 0.608
260 Thaddeus Young PHIL SF 0.607
261 Brandon Rush INDI SG 0.606
262 Hasheem Thabeet MEMP C 0.605
263 Damien Wilkins MINN SG 0.601
264 Rodney Carney PHIL SF 0.601
265 Earl Boykins WASH PG 0.599
266 J.J. Hickson CLEV PF 0.599
267 Willie Green PHIL SG 0.598
268 Anthony Parker CLEV SG 0.596
269 Jamaal Magloire MIAM C 0.594
270 Wesley Matthews UTAH SG 0.592
271 Devean George GOLS SG 0.592
272 Richard Hamilton DETR SG 0.592
273 Kevin Martin SACR SG 0.591
274 Andrea Bargnani TORO C 0.591
275 Ryan Gomes MINN SF 0.589
276 Thabo Sefolosha OKLA SF 0.589
277 Rafer Alston NJRS PG 0.589
278 Tracy McGrady NWYR SG 0.588
279 Marco Belinelli TORO SG 0.587
280 Michael Finley BOST SF 0.585
281 Marcus Williams MEMP PG 0.583
282 Martell Webster PORT SG 0.583
283 Charlie Villanueva DETR PF 0.582

MARGINAL ROLE PLAYERS / RARELY START
284 Derek Fisher LALK PG 0.578
285 Jannero Pargo CHIC PG 0.577
286 Toney Douglas NWYR PG 0.577
287 Chris Hunter GOLS PF 0.576
288 Derrick Brown CHAR SF 0.575
289 Yi Jianlian NJRS PF 0.575
290 Nathan Jawai MINN PF 0.575
291 Ime Udoka SACR SG 0.574
292 Sergio Rodriguez NWYR PG 0.574
293 Arron Afflalo DENV SG 0.573
294 Kevin Martin HOUS SG 0.572
295 Hakim Warrick MILW PF 0.571
296 Al Thornton WASH SF 0.569
297 Will Bynum DETR PG 0.568
298 Jonny Flynn MINN PG 0.568
299 James Posey NORL SF 0.564
300 Mikki Moore GOLS C 0.561
301 Darius Songaila NORL PF 0.561
302 Jerryd Bayless PORT PG 0.556
303 Jon Brockman SACR PF 0.554
304 Sasha Vujacic LALK SG 0.554
305 Dante Cunningham PORT SF 0.551
306 Michael Redd MILW SG 0.551
307 Eric Gordon LACL SG 0.550
308 C.J. Miles UTAH SF 0.549
309 Al Thornton LACL SF 0.547
310 Julian Wright NORL SF 0.545
311 Jeff Teague ATLA PG 0.544
312 Marquis Daniels BOST SG 0.543
313 Dahntay Jones INDI SG 0.542
314 Chris Douglas-Roberts NJRS SG 0.541
315 Zaza Pachulia ATLA C 0.538
316 Etan Thomas OKLA C 0.538
317 Sonny Weems TORO SG 0.537
318 Devin Brown NORL SG 0.533
319 Jason Maxiell DETR PF 0.532
320 Bill Walker NWYR SG 0.532
321 Courtney Lee NJRS SG 0.528
322 James Jones MIAM SF 0.525
323 Donte Greene SACR SF 0.524
324 Kenny Thomas SACR PF 0.523
325 Wayne Ellington MINN SG 0.521
326 Juwan Howard PORT PF 0.520

POOR PLAYERS / SHOULD NEVER START
327 Charlie Bell MILW SG 0.518
328 Corey Brewer MINN SF 0.518
329 Hakim Warrick CHIC PF 0.514
330 DeAndre Jordan LACL C 0.512
331 Rasual Butler LACL SG 0.509
332 Glen Davis BOST PF 0.508
333 Sam Young MEMP SF 0.508
334 Austin Daye DETR SF 0.507
335 Ronald Murray CHIC SG 0.504
336 Vladimir Radmanovic GOLS SF 0.494
337 Solomon Jones INDI PF 0.493
338 Ben Gordon DETR SG 0.491
339 James Johnson CHIC PF 0.487
340 Rafer Alston MIAM PG 0.482
341 Eduardo Najera DALL PF 0.482
342 Chucky Atkins DETR PG 0.477
343 Earl Clark PHNX SF 0.474
344 Joey Graham DENV SF 0.473
345 Fabricio Oberto WASH C 0.468
346 Jason Smith PHIL PF 0.466
347 Andres Nocioni SACR SF 0.464
348 Jared Jeffries HOUS PF 0.462
349 Nick Young WASH SG 0.462
350 Maurice Evans ATLA SF 0.462
351 Keith Bogans SANA SG 0.462
352 Josh Howard DALL SF 0.460

VERY POOR PLAYERS
353 Eddie House NWYR SG 0.454
354 Joe Smith ATLA PF 0.453
355 Kwame Brown DETR C 0.452
356 Antoine Wright TORO SF 0.451
357 Darrell Arthur MEMP PF 0.443
358 Jarvis Hayes NJRS SF 0.438
359 Ricky Davis LACL SF 0.437
360 Mardy Collins LACL PG 0.436
361 Malik Hairston SANA SG 0.433
362 Jeff Pendergraph PORT PF 0.432
363 Jermaine Taylor HOUS SG 0.428
364 Chris Wilcox DETR C 0.417
365 DeMar DeRozan TORO SG 0.414
366 Jodie Meeks MILW SG 0.413
367 Quinton Ross DALL SF 0.406

EXTREMELY POOR PLAYERS
368 Morris Peterson NORL SG 0.394
369 Josh Powell LALK PF 0.386
370 Jason Kapono PHIL SG 0.383
371 Jawad Williams CLEV SF 0.369
372 DeMarre Carroll MEMP SF 0.357
373 Ryan Hollins MINN C 0.351
374 Steve Novak LACL SF 0.345
375 Trenton Hassell NJRS SF 0.342
376 Brian Scalabrine BOST C 0.329
377 Michael Finley SANA SF 0.321
378 Sasha Pavlovic MINN SG 0.314
379 DeShawn Stevenson WASH SG 0.287
380 Malik Allen DENV PF 0.282
381 DaJuan Summers DETR SF 0.266

SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.820 0.899
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.760 0.819
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man 0.640 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Usually do not start 0.580 0.639
Marginal Role Player / Rarely start 0.520 0.579
Poor Player / Should never start 0.460 0.519
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.459
Extremely Poor Player .399 and less

AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. These are the average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who are superstars. Most (but definitely not all) superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.

Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .640
Small Forward .640
Power Forward .720
Center .750
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700

PLAYOFF GRADE PLAYERS
Playoff Grade Players have ratings of .560 and higher. Players with ratings below .560 should not play in the playoffs unless the team is forced to play them so that they have two players at a position and/or so that the team has at least eight players playing in the playoffs and/or because the coach is absolutely certain the low rating player will play better in the playoffs than he did in the regular season.

REGULAR SEASON STARTING PLAYERS
All starters on all teams should have ratings of .575 and higher. If a team has no player at a postion with at least a .575 rating, then it is extremely deficient at that position due to injuries or due to management incompetence.

THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
The above are a few hightlights from the User Guide for Real Player Ratings. For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.

Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

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