Real Player Production (RPP) is the factored sum of all the good things minus the sum of all the bad things a player has done since the season began. Starting in June 2009, RPP is upgraded to include a careful estimate of the value of each player's hidden defending. See the User Guide for complete details about this. RPP adjusted for hidden defending is called Total Real Player Production (TRPP). Generally, only TRPP will appear in reports.
DENVER NUGGETS
FINAL TOTAL REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
2008-09 Regular Season
Quantity of Players: Includes all tracked actions and an estimate for hidden defending
08-09 Chauncey Billups DEN 2364.79
08-09 Nene Hilario DEN 2209.26
08-09 Carmelo Anthony DEN 2051.97
08-09 J.R. Smith DEN 1849.35
08-09 Kenyon Martin DEN 1591.51
08-09 Chris Andersen DEN 1219.82
08-09 Anthony Carter DEN 1194.00
08-09 Linas Kleiza DEN 1111.76
08-09 Renaldo Balkman DEN 635.86
08-09 Dahntay Jones DEN 633.89
DENVER NUGGETS
FINAL TOTAL REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
2007-08 Regular Season
Quantity of Players: Includes all tracked actions and an estimate for hidden defending
07-08 Allen Iverson 3332.78
07-08 Marcus Camby 2755.56
07-08 Carmelo Anthony 2648.02
07-08 Kenyon Martin 1640.60
07-08 Anthony Carter 1380.67
07-08 Linas Kleiza 1331.01
07-08 Eduardo Najera 1222.96
07-08 J.R. Smith 1160.35
07-08 Yakhouba Diawara 291.75
07-08 Chucky Atkins 196.73
DENVER NUGGETS
FINAL TOTAL REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
2008-09 AND 2007-08 COMBINED SORT
Quantity of Players: Includes all tracked actions and an estimate for hidden defending
07-08 Allen Iverson 3332.78
07-08 Marcus Camby 2755.56
07-08 Carmelo Anthony 2648.02
08-09 Chauncey Billups DEN 2364.79
08-09 Nene Hilario DEN 2209.26
08-09 Carmelo Anthony DEN 2051.97
08-09 J.R. Smith DEN 1849.35
07-08 Kenyon Martin 1640.60
08-09 Kenyon Martin DEN 1591.51
07-08 Anthony Carter 1380.67
07-08 Linas Kleiza 1331.01
07-08 Eduardo Najera 1222.96
08-09 Chris Andersen DEN 1219.82
08-09 Anthony Carter DEN 1194.00
07-08 J.R. Smith 1160.35
08-09 Linas Kleiza DEN 1111.76
08-09 Renaldo Balkman DEN 635.86
08-09 Dahntay Jones DEN 633.89
07-08 Yakhouba Diawara 291.75
07-08 Chucky Atkins 196.73
OBSERVATIONS
In Part One we saw how Allen Iverson in 2007-08 was a better player than Chauncey Billlups was in 2008-09 by about 10%. Here we see that the Iverson over Billups reality was even larger when you look at total net production. Iverson produced 41% more on the basketball court in 2007-08 than Billups did in 2008-09.
Remember Iverson’s 2007-08 TRPP number (3333) because that is one of the highest such numbers you will ever see. Due to George Karl’s inability to coach him correctly, and also due to instructions from the owner and/or the managers of the Nuggets to milk Iverson as much as possible so that the objective of additional Nuggets tickets and merchandise revenues might be achieved, Iverson played a grinding 3,424 minutes in 2007-08, more than every other year except for 2002-03.
The other big time Nugget run out of town following the extremely expensive but underachieving 2007-08 campaign was Marcus Camby, who trails only Iverson in the two year record of total production.
In third, you have the 2007-08 version of Carmelo Anthony. As you can see, the 2008-09 Carmelo Anthony produced a little more than 3/4 of the 2007-08. Much of this drop off was due to fewer minutes played due to nagging injuries, but at least a quarter of the drop off was due to the bad influence of George Karl on Anthony.
Kenyon Martin is a very predictable veteran player. Both his Real Player Rating and his Total Production were very similar in both years.
Notice the huge jump in the J.R. Smith production. Virtually all of this was due to more minutes because, remember, George Karl was restricting J.R. Smith’s minutes in 2007-08 whereas, in the following year, Karl’s stance softened considerably despite the fact that Smith was essentially precisely as good a player in both years! One good theory regarding why Karl softened his restrictions on Smith in 2007-08 is simply that management ordered him to play Smith a minimum number of minutes.
When Linas Kleiza was not given a contract in the smmer of 2008, and when Chris Andersen and Renaldo Balkman shocked the public with their outstanding play and crowded him out, Linas Kleiza gradually fell off the radar screen. Now he is off the team and off to Greece to play this coming season. Kleiza's departure is certainly a case of addition by subtraction.
When the Nuggets sent Dahntay Jones to Indiana a few weeks ago, it was most definitely addition by subtraction. George Karl has developed a reputation for grossly overplaying certain guards (as long as they have compelling personalities, laugh out loud). This past year, Dahntay Jones' personality was Karl’s object of affection. But Nuggets management clearly recognizes this Karl weakness, and so it was no surprise when Jones was not offered any kind of contract by Denver.
Anthony Carter is an aging backup point guard who has become more and more of a playoff defensive liability, in the last couple of years especially.
========== OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ===========
DENVER NUGGETS
OVERALL OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2008-09 Regular Season
Offensive Quality: Includes all non-trivial offensive actions
08-09 Chauncey Billups DEN 0.637
08-09 Carmelo Anthony DEN 0.587
08-09 J.R. Smith DEN 0.527
08-09 Nene Hilario DEN 0.478
08-09 Renaldo Balkman DEN 0.432
08-09 Linas Kleiza DEN 0.394
08-09 Anthony Carter DEN 0.385
08-09 Chris Andersen DEN 0.358
08-09 Kenyon Martin DEN 0.354
08-09 Dahntay Jones DEN 0.293
DENVER NUGGETS
OVERALL OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2007-08 Regular Season
Offensive Quality: Includes all non-trivial offensive actions
07-08 Allen Iverson 0.703
07-08 Carmelo Anthony 0.672
07-08 J.R. Smith 0.587
07-08 Anthony Carter 0.466
07-08 Linas Kleiza 0.453
07-08 Kenyon Martin 0.401
07-08 Marcus Camby 0.385
07-08 Chucky Atkins 0.381
07-08 Eduardo Najera 0.350
07-08 Yakhouba Diawara 0.325
DENVER NUGGETS
OVERALL OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2008-09 AND 2007-08 COMBINED SORT
Offensive Quality: Includes all non-trivial offensive actions
07-08 Allen Iverson 0.703
07-08 Carmelo Anthony 0.672
08-09 Chauncey Billups DEN 0.637
08-09 Carmelo Anthony DEN 0.587
07-08 J.R. Smith 0.587
08-09 J.R. Smith DEN 0.527
08-09 Nene Hilario DEN 0.478
07-08 Anthony Carter 0.466
07-08 Linas Kleiza 0.453
08-09 Renaldo Balkman DEN 0.432
07-08 Kenyon Martin 0.401
08-09 Linas Kleiza DEN 0.394
08-09 Anthony Carter DEN 0.385
07-08 Marcus Camby 0.385
07-08 Chucky Atkins 0.381
08-09 Chris Andersen DEN 0.358
08-09 Kenyon Martin DEN 0.354
07-08 Eduardo Najera 0.350
07-08 Yakhouba Diawara 0.325
08-09 Dahntay Jones DEN 0.293
OBSERVATIONS
You might be surprised to learn that you are right now looking at something unusual and something that is usually a bad thing. You are looking at a bunch of players who made fairly big changes in their games in order to adopt a relatively radical purely defensive approach to basketball.
Specifically:
--Carmelo Anthony’s offensive game dropped from .672 to .587
--J.R. Smith’s offensive game dropped from .587 to .527
--Kenyon Martin’s offensive game dropped from .401 to .354
--Anthony Carter’s offensive game dropped from .466 to .385
--Linus Kleiza’s offensive game dropped from .453 to .394
Of course, as you will see shortly, the flip side of these drops were much higher defensive sub ratings. The problem is that all the Nuggets did was go from one extreme to another. In 2007-08, they were obsessed with offense and, although they were much better defensively than most believe, they did not have enough pride in or reliance on defense to be a legitimate contender. Whereas in 2008-09, the Nuggets were obsessed with defense and did not have enough pride in or ability to rely on offense to be a legitimate contender.
Even teams that are obviously much more skilled or interested in either defense or offense can not downplay the other one to the extent the Nuggets did in both years and expect to be a legitimate contender. Even the 1989 Quest Winner Pistons, for example, a defensive monster of a team, had a well run offense that worked well when it was needed. The ’89 Pistons did not even get close to ignoring offense or to having almost no offensive organization and patterns, the way the Nuggets did in 2009.
Even in 2007-08, the Nuggets offense was powered much more by raw skill and athleticism than by strategy and plays, but at least there was a pride and a confidence associated with that offense that was almost completely gone in 2008-09.
The Denver Nuggets were like an empty shell defensively in 2007-08, and then they were like an empty shell offensively in 2008-09. Opposing teams could crack those shells to get playoff wins over the Nuggets.
Don’t get me wrong, there was a lot of skill and potential on the 2007-08 Nuggets defense and the 2008-09 Nuggets offense, and so the actual outcome was actually pretty good. But the strategy, tactics, emphasis, and pride were totally lacking, and so the 2007-08 Denver defense and the 2008-09 Denver offense were both major underachievers.
In theory, had Denver fielded a legitimate, independent defense in 2007-08 or a legitimate, independent offense in 2008-09, they could have been a full scale contender to win the Quest.
While it is acceptable, and usually advisable, to promote either offense or defense over the other one, you can not win the Quest by overweighting one or the other of those to the point where the other one is an afterthought, or is literally derived from the emphasized one.
The Nuggets 2008-09 offense did not exist independently. It was derived from the defense. This is a strategy that will never work in the Quest for the Ring. Players must be able to execute both a separate quality offense and a separate quality defense.
=========== DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ===========
DENVER NUGGETS
OVERALL DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2008-09 Regular Season
Defending Quality: Includes both tracked and hidden defending
08-09 Chris Andersen DEN 0.478
08-09 Nene Hilario DEN 0.402
08-09 Kenyon Martin DEN 0.400
08-09 Renaldo Balkman DEN 0.384
08-09 Carmelo Anthony DEN 0.315
08-09 J.R. Smith DEN 0.297
08-09 Anthony Carter DEN 0.283
08-09 Chauncey Billups DEN 0.233
08-09 Linas Kleiza DEN 0.216
08-09 Dahntay Jones DEN 0.152
DENVER NUGGETS
OVERALL DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2007-08 Regular Season
Defending Quality: Includes both tracked and hidden defending
07-08 Marcus Camby 0.600
07-08 Eduardo Najera 0.385
07-08 Kenyon Martin 0.359
07-08 Carmelo Anthony 0.272
07-08 Allen Iverson 0.270
07-08 Linas Kleiza 0.251
07-08 Anthony Carter 0.238
07-08 J.R. Smith 0.229
07-08 Yakhouba Diawara 0.179
07-08 Chucky Atkins 0.178
The breakdowns between hidden and unhidden are available on request.
DENVER NUGGETS
OVERALL DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2008-09 AND 2007-08 COMBINED SORT
07-08 Marcus Camby 0.600
08-09 Chris Andersen DEN 0.478
08-09 Nene Hilario DEN 0.402
08-09 Kenyon Martin DEN 0.400
07-08 Eduardo Najera 0.385
08-09 Renaldo Balkman DEN 0.384
07-08 Kenyon Martin 0.359
08-09 Carmelo Anthony DEN 0.315
08-09 J.R. Smith DEN 0.297
08-09 Anthony Carter DEN 0.283
07-08 Carmelo Anthony 0.272
07-08 Allen Iverson 0.270
07-08 Linas Kleiza 0.251
07-08 Anthony Carter 0.238
08-09 Chauncey Billups DEN 0.233
07-08 J.R. Smith 0.229
08-09 Linas Kleiza DEN 0.216
07-08 Yakhouba Diawara 0.179
07-08 Chucky Atkins 0.178
08-09 Dahntay Jones DEN 0.152
OBSERVATIONS
Chris Anderson produced about 80% of what Marcus Camby did the year before while earning less than 10% of the pay. So to say the Nuggets got lucky with Andersen would be a major understatement. They got a miracle with Andersen.
The flipside of the big offensive declines above would be the big defensive increases:
--Carmelo Anthony’s defensive game increased from .272 to .315
--J.R. Smith’s defensive game increased from .229 to .297
--Kenyon Martin’s defensive game increased from .359 to .400
--Anthony Carter’s defensive game increased from .238 to .283
--Linus Kleiza’s defensive game declined from .251 to .216
The biggest improvement in absolute and in percentage terms was by J.R. Smith who went up by almost .070. Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, and Anthony Carter all went up by a little less than .050. Linus Kleiza was substantially worse defensively in 2008 than he was in 2007, so he was completely out of step with the 2008 Nuggets. He is now out of town too, as he has signed a contract to play basketball in Greece.
PERCENTAGE CHANGES OF THE FIVE NUGGETS WE CAN COMPARE YEAR TO YEAR
In a few weeks, the fall 2009 Real Player Rating “Tweak” is going to boost the defending factors and reduce the offensive factors. As of now, roughly speaking, RPR is weighted 60% offense and 40% defense. This is going to become roughly 55% offense and 45% defense. This will be a small but non-trivial change.
This will most likely be the last tweak that is more than a trivial change. Starting in 2010, all annual RPR changes will be trivial.
We can, even with the existing slightly imperfect numbers, fairly compare five Nuggets from 2007-08 to 2008-09 on offense and on defense simply by using percentage changes.
Carmelo Anthony was 16% better on defense but 14% worse on offense in 2008-09 compared with the year before. Note that since Carmelo Anthony has always had far more potential on offense than on defense, this was a net negative for him with respect to prospects for winning the Quest.
J.R. Smith was almost 30% better on defense but about 10% worse on offense in 2008-09 compared with the year before. Smith’s defensive improvement was huge, so arguably this was a good tradeoff for him. Smith’s offensive decline was less than I thought it would be.
Kenyon Martin was about 11 1/2 % better on defense but almost 12% worse on offense in 2008-09 compared with the year before. An already defensive player became an overly defensive player here.
Anthony Carter was 19% better on defense but almost 17 1/2 % worse on offense in 2008-09 compared with the year before. There is no denying that Carter’s defense needed some improvement, but in the process he became even more of an offensive lightweight, non-factor than he already was.
Linas Kleiza was 14% worse on defense and 13% worse on offense in 2008-09 compared with the year before.
As you can see, the Nuggets swapped out offense and swapped in defense. Had they in 2008-09 respected and understood the concept of professional basketball offense, they could have possibly held on to almost all of their 2007-08 offensive performance, which would likely have made them actual contenders, and a true threat to the Lakers.
As it was, since the Nuggets disrespected the concept of organized, professional offense, the “threat” that the 2009 Nuggets posed to the Lakers winning the Quest was nothing more than a figment of the imagination.
========== VIDEO PLAYERS ==========
DENVER NUGGETS 2009 MOST POPULAR VIDEOS PLAYER
iDesktop.tv
DENVER NUGGETS 2007-2008 MOST POPULAR VIDEOS PLAYER
iDesktop.tv
