See the additional editorial notes at the end for more details about late postings and how they are not going to be a problem any longer.
FROM APRIL 19 2009
I'll tell you why the Nuggets' defense might break down in the playoffs: it's not a good approach for the playoffs.
Why? Because the Nuggets' approach or defensive style is based on aggression and energy. Energy and effort work in both the regular season and the playoffs. The other feature is the problem. Aggression per se does not work in the playoffs as well as in the regular season.
Although there is some variation from game to game and from referee to referee, in general playoff referees are more likely than regular season referees to call a lot of fouls and goal tending against players such as Chris Andersen, Renaldo Balkman, and Nene, who defend more with speed, pressing, and aggressiveness than they do with pure defending skill. In other words, playoff referees are unlikely to be very impressed by a team that features aggressive man to man defending and that has a cavalier, pedal to the metal attitude toward fouling.
While they will allow a defensively skilled player such as Kevin Garnett or Bruce Bowen to get away with some accidental fouls, the playoff referees are less likely to let relative no name and lesser skill players such as Andersen and Balkman get away with clumsy fouls.
As the regular season has gone along, the Nuggets have been called for more and more personal fouls and goal tends. The Nuggets are this year just about the number one team in the NBA when it comes to committing personal fouls.
The Nuggets have lost a few games just from a massive number of free throws made by the other team. In the playoffs, the Nuggets are likely to face at least as many foul calls as they did late in the regular season, and I believe it is likely they will face the prospect of even more foul calls against their type of defense. The referees are impressed by defensive skill and toughness, but not by an aggressive street type of defensive vibe. The difference between "toughness" and "aggressiveness" may seem small, but the referees are sensitive to it. And the rulebook distinguishes one from the other.
In the past couple of months, I have been listening to a few of the Nuggets games radio broadcasts. The announcer has had me laughing with all his condeming of the referees for calling fouls against the aggressive Nuggets. He has been rating the foul calls and the referees. His theory is that the referees are too incompetent and trigger happy with the whistle to see what a glorious defense the Nuggets have, laugh out loud. To him, when the referees throw the book at the hard charging Nuggets, it's allways because of bad referees. It's been funny to listen to him rail about the calls and evaluate the referees over and over and over.
The bottom line is that should the refs really dislike the Nuggets' defensive scheme, they can and will throw the book at them. If this happens, the Nuggets will be buried with personal fouls called against them and of course by Hornets' free throws. The Nuggets are facing at least a large number of personal foul calls and perhaps an avalanche of them.
FROM APRIL 19 2009 (During Game One, which was won by the Nuggets 113-84)
I like that CP3 and the Hornets' offense has held it's own and stayed organized and well run against the Nuggets' defense, which is designed to disrupt and confuse. I thought the Nuggets were going to lead by at least 10 at the half.
I really like that Chandler looks alright out there, and I like that Peja is making shots.
I don't like that both Nene and Billups are off to great starts, and that Chris Andersen is running around as if he is on speed, and as if no one is trying to deal with him. The Hornets have got to box out Andersen better at both ends of the court. He can only beat you if you allow him to be perfectly positioned at the hoop all the time.
Laugh out loud at how mad dawg Kenyon Martin is lately. Laugh out loud at how distressed Karl seems to be with JR Smith's choppy, not very good start. He's never had a good playoff series, so what is the big surprise in that?
Teams like the Nuggets are usually not as good in the 2nd half of games, due to not being as supercharged and fast.
Bottom line: if the Hornets lose game 1, I want it to be by less than 12 points. If they lose by less than 12, I like their chances for the series as a whole.
FROM APRIL 20 2009 (The day after Game 1, which was won by the Nuggets 113-84))
Posted by dnkbro
Wow, what a game. As a Nuggets fan, I'm surprised we won by so much tonight. Overall, it was an intense game until about the end of the 3rd quarter. I said before the series started that the biggest match-up in this series would be K-Mart vs D-West and low and behold, it was. West played bad tonight. K-Mart really got him out of his rhythm and if West isn't playing well, with your bench, it's going to be tough to win.
It will be impossible to win if West and Chandler play like this the rest of the way.
Add to the fact that Billups was shooting out of his mind (he has never shot like that all season) and you got a 30 point rout.
If you simplify a little, the Nuggets have these possible sources of scoring power:
--Carmelo Anthony
--Chauncey Billups
--Nene
--JR Smith
--Everyone Else
Carmelo Anthony has had bad series four out of his first five; he started out bad again in this one. It's adding insult to injury if the Nuggets offensively explode with little coming from Melo.
Billups has actually been in a slump since about the beginning of March, so this came from nowhere. The Nuggets have since early February been relying much more on Melo and Smith and much less on Billups, whereas before then it was the Billups show. So in this playoff game, they returned to how they started with Billups, which is yet another head scratcher.
The Nuggets this season have fooled everyone over and over again, with one curve ball surprise after another being thrown at opposing teams and at basketball media people. Based on this game, it looks like the Nuggets will win this series in 5 or 6 games, which will make the consensus prediction that the Nuggets win in 7 games very wrong. And even those who think Karl is not really all that bad a coach were wrong on the regular season, since they underestimated how many games the Nuggets would win. Granted, I and many others were more wrong than them, but technically everyone was wrong. Hardly anyone breathing and over the age of 18 predicted the Nuggets were going to win 54 games.
The ultimate doomsday for New Orleans is if the Nuggets now have the ability to switch to and from the All Billups all the time offense and the Melo/Smith offense that was used in March and April. If so, the Hornets can not win this series, and the Nuggets in fact will probably go to the Western Conference finals. Because if they have two relatively good offenses available to them, that makes them about 3 times as tough to beat.
Nene getting 10-18 points and shooting better than 50% is practically automatic; you need someone like Yao Ming to stop it.
JR Smith has never had a good playoff series in history, but based on this game you would say he is on the way to his first one.
Everyone Else: It's adding insult to injury when players such as Dahntay Jones (spelled it right, give me credit) and Chris Andersen are offensively on point. You are getting your behind handed to you if players such as these are making as many shots as they are missing, or more, in a playoff game. On both sides of the court, if you can't box out Chris Andersen and keep him away from the damn play more than in game 1, you are wasting Chris Paul's time, laugh out loud.
This series is far from over. I can see it going 6-7 games irregardless of tonight.
Quite honestly the series is over unless Chandler/West step it up against Mad Dawg Martin and the inexperienced and often clumsy Nene, and/or if the Nuggets have two good ways to beat you offensively as discussed above.
For Chandler/West to be that badly beaten by Martin/Nene is a disaster for New Orleans. True, the Freakman (aka as the Birdman, aka Chris Andersen) is enough to freak anyone out, but come on, get a grip, Hornets. Box the Freakman out a lot more, get tough with him, go at him on offense and get some free throws and goal tend calls. Get a technical while complaining about the Freakman if you have to.
Oh, and one final comment. The referring tonight was terrible all around
New Orleans with 29 fouls and Denver with 22 fouls was nothing short of bizarre. Denver practically leads the NBA in personal fouling, while New Orleans is near the bottom. The Nuggets assume going in that the other team will most likely get a lot more free throws than they get. If for whatever reason they get more free throws, it is virtually an automatic win for them.
In summary this game was a disaster for New Orleans and for anyone thinking it will be a 7 game series: it looks like Denver in 5 or 6 now.
However, the Nuggets have George Karl for a coach, not Greg Popovich or Phil Jackson. This means that on the Denver team the players determine the schemes and patterns much more than the coaches do. When the players run things, you have much more inconsistency than if the coaches play a big role in how the defense and especially the offense is run.
Therefore, the Hornets have the chance to get back in the series if they do most of the things mentioned above.
The bottom line: if I were Byron Scott, I would ask Chandler and West right now: "Do you really want to be pushed around and go down the drain in this series by the likes of George "many thought I was going to be fired a year ago" Karl, The Freakman (The Birdman, whatever), Mad Dawg Martin, and Dahntay Jones? Dahntay Jones??? Come on, take a deep breath, get a grip, and then get back into the damn series."
========== Editorial Notes ==========
--The above was written in late April, 2009.
--As promised, we are finally posting material written and posted on forums in the spring. Obviously, if you have your own site, you should be posting at least simultaneously on your own site when you for whatever reason post elsewhere. But there has been a bad habit of not doing so, a bad habit that is being beaten down due to new content sharing regulations that have teeth.
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