Each of the three major 2010 contending teams has that mega or historical superstar you look for when you consider whether a team can win a Ring. The Celtics have Rajon Rondo, the Lakers have Kobe Bryant, and the Cavaliers have LeBron James, who is the only one of these three who is in the "Major Historical Superstar" range. James is, amazingly, comfortably in that range.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Quite honestly the Cavaliers are at the moment hanging on for dear life as a major contender, and either the Mavericks or the Magic may bump the Cavaliers down to the wild card class of teams by the end of December. I refuse to count out LeBron James and the Cavaliers this early in the season, though.
LeBron James is well ahead of Rondo and Bryant, but given Cleveland's overall roster in general, and the big drop off of Zydrunas Ilgauskas in particular, James will need to be even better than he has been so far, or else Anderson Varajao and Mo Williams, who have been great, will need to be even greater, or else Shaquille O'Neal is going to have to play like he did years ago, or some other miraculous thing will have to happen, if the Cavaliers are to win a Ring this year over the Celtics and Lakers.
Let's take a quick look at the Cavaliers starters and their three key reserves so far this season....
Small forward LeBron James finished with a RPR of 1.331 last year, the highest in the NBA, whereas this year he is 1.243 so far. LeBron, you are slacking, laugh out loud.
Point guard Mo Williams finished with a RPR of .789 last year and is .746 so far this year.
2-guard Anthony Parker is obviously being crowded out by LeBron James, who successfully plays both the two and the three spots at the same time. James has to do this to some extent, or the Cavaliers have no chance at all. Parker is only .494 so far this year; he was .661 for Toronto last year.
Power forward J.J. Hickson was .485 for Cleveland last year, and is down to .434 so far this year. Hickson is hurting the Cavaliers and should be playing less than he is. Anderson Varejao is playing far better than Hickson, and the Cavaliers should always be starting Varejao over Hickson. Simply making sure that Varejao gets a little more playing time than does Hickson is not going to cut it. It should be a lot more playing time. Varejao was .694 last year but is far better at .862 so far this year.
Shaquille O'Neal, the replacement starting center for the fading Zydrunas Ilgauskas, has not yet played 300 minutes. Ilgauskas has collapsed from .913 last year to .585 so far this year.
Despite the fact that Jamario Moon technically backs up LeBron James at small forward, he gets a lot of playing time, and he deserves it. He is .787 so far this year, which is solid starter rank, and he is an extremely good defender who unlike many great defenders is also an offensive asset. Last year, Moon was .849 for Toronto. The fact that Moon has not dropped by more than .100 by being on LeBron James' team tells you that Moon complements James well. The bottom line is that the Cavaliers have to give Moon as much playing time as they possibly can, or they will probably not be able to defeat the Celtics this year.
Finally, backup point guard Daniel Gibson was .478 for the Cavaliers last year, and is a better .588 so far this year.
BOSTON CELTICS
Celtics' point guard Rajon Rondo is hanging very close to Kobe Bryant after one month of the 2009-10 season. This spells big, big trouble for Los Angeles and especially for Cleveland. The Cavaliers may simply not be able to beat the Celtics if Rondo is offsetting LeBron James to the extent he is right now, and given that the Celtics other than Rondo are well ahead of the Cavaliers other than James. Rajon Rondo has so far this year completed a remarkable transformation from young yet very, very solid to an historical superstar point guard. Last year, Rondo was a .938, and now so far this year, Rondo is in Hall of Fame / Most Valuable Player territory with a 1.046.
Also for the Celtics, power forward Kevin Garnett has even now not come all the way back from his early 2009 injury, but Rasheed Wallace, who is the Celtics 6th man backing up Kevin Garnett at power forward, is playing much better than he did for Detroit last year, especially defensively, and this has partly made up for Garnett not being at 100%. Garnett himself finished with a RPR of 1.106 last year, and is only .875 so far this year, but look for that to gradually rise and expect Garnett to finish the season above 1.000. Wallace was only .767 for Detroit last year, but he is .816 for Boston this year and, more importantly, Wallace is so far the 2nd best defensive player on the three contenders, behind only Anderson Varejao of the Cavaliers. Wallace, if he continues to play this well on defense, guarantees Boston a repeat application in 2010 of their very strong defensive strategy of 2008.
As if Garnett and Wallace are not already enough power and potential up front, the Celtics also have starting center Kendrick Perkins up from last year: from .666 to .750.
Small forward Paul Pierce did not have one of his very best seasons last year, but this year is different. He is up sharply from .795 last year to .912 so far this year.
Finally, no matter how old he gets, small forward Ray Allen, who is down only very slightly from last year to this, continues to be a huge offensive asset and a decent defensive player in the Celtics' quest for their second ring in three years. Marquis Daniels is now the backup for Allen at 2-guard. He was .710 for Indiana last year, and is .565 so far this year. This drop is likely due to the simple fact that Daniels doesn't get to make as many plays for the major contender Celtics as he did for the Pacers last year.
As we have seen, Pierce, Rondo, Wallace, and Perkins have together more than made up for the need for Garnett to complete his injury recovery. As a result, the Celtics' 2009-10 start has been truly awesome, and so far the Celtics are at least as good a team as they were in 2007-08 when they won the Quest for the Ring.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Phil Jackson and the Lakers, with Pau Gasol out for the 11 first games of the season, decided they missed Gasol's offense even more than they missed his defense. So to compensate for no Gasol, Jackson and the Lakers decided to rely much more on defense than they normally do to win the early games, which they mostly did.
Lakers mega star Kobe Bryant is playing almost exactly as well so far this year as he did last year when he won his 4th ring (5th Ring counting his MVP as a Ring.) Bryant was 1.075 last year and is 1.093 so far this year (historical superstar both years).
The new Lakers' small forward, Ron Artest is substantially better this year than Trevor Ariza was at that position last year. Artest is .838 so far this year whereas Ariza was .766 for all of last year. Incidentally, Artest for Houston last year was .806.
On the other hand, power forward Lamar Odom is down from .923 to .865. Similarly, center Andrew Bynum is down slightly, from .940 to .900. Both of these players are undoubtedly being negatively affected by the absence of Gasol, who loves to find them for layups and dunks.
LA point guard Derek Fisher (.660 RPR) is playing almost exactly as well this year as he did last year so far, which is in the Good Role Player category. However, keep in mind that Fisher's role for the Lakers is far greater than his RPR would indicate, because he very reliably translates Phil Jackson's strategies and tactics into actual positive results on the court.
BOTTOM LINE
Assuming no major injuries intrude, we are looking at a Celtics-Lakers Championship in 2010, a rematch of the 2008 Championship, and several other identical NBA Championships of history. The Cavaliers may or may not be a major contender, but that they are going to have to transform to compete with the Celtics and the Lakers is clear. Either or both of the wild card teams Mavericks and Magic may eventually be better than the 2010 Cavaliers. All in all, the Cavaliers, Mavericks, and Magic form a "second tier" for the 2010 Quest for the Ring. These three teams are waiting in the wings should the Celtics or Lakers stumble badly due to injury or, much less likely, something other than injury.
We still like the Lakers 4-3, but quite honestly you could call it 4-3 Celtics and you would not get much of an argument from me.
Now using the recently tweaked so they are almost perfect Real Player Rating formulas, let's check to see exactly how good the players on the three major contender teams are so far. All players who have played at least 300 minutes are shown; at least 300 minutes are needed for the hidden defending adjustment (HDA) to be valid. The HDA is included in the following.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Kobe Bryant LAL 1.093
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.900
Lamar Odom LAL 0.865
Ron Artest LAL 0.838
Derek Fisher LAL 0.660
Rajon Rondo BOS 1.046
Paul Pierce BOS 0.912
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.875
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.816
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.750
Ray Allen BOS 0.743
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.565
LeBron James CLE 1.243
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.862
Jamario Moon CLE 0.787
Mo Williams CLE 0.746
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.588
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.585
Anthony Parker CLE 0.494
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.434
REAL PLAYER RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
LeBron James CLE 1.243
Kobe Bryant LAL 1.093
Rajon Rondo BOS 1.046
Paul Pierce BOS 0.912
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.900
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.875
Lamar Odom LAL 0.865
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.862
Ron Artest LAL 0.838
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.816
Jamario Moon CLE 0.787
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.750
Mo Williams CLE 0.746
Ray Allen BOS 0.743
Derek Fisher LAL 0.660
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.588
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.585
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.565
Anthony Parker CLE 0.494
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.434
EVALUATION SCALE FOR REAL PLAYER RATINGS IN A SEASON
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.910 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.830 0.909
Very Good Player / A Solid Starter 0.760 0.829
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.650 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player 0.590 0.649
Marginal Role Player 0.530 0.589
Poor Player 0.470 0.529
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.469
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Kobe Bryant LAL 614.54
Ron Artest LAL 429.80
Lamar Odom LAL 424.09
Andrew Bynum LAL 421.91
Derek Fisher LAL 265.35
Rajon Rondo BOS 561.67
Paul Pierce BOS 521.46
Kevin Garnett BOS 424.22
Ray Allen BOS 415.30
Kendrick Perkins BOS 321.57
Rasheed Wallace BOS 281.58
Marquis Daniels BOS 178.45
LeBron James CLE 800.56
Mo Williams CLE 459.75
Anderson Varejao CLE 383.78
Anthony Parker CLE 252.55
Jamario Moon CLE 234.39
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 227.67
Daniel Gibson CLE 209.90
J.J. Hickson CLE 141.43
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
LeBron James CLE 800.56
Kobe Bryant LAL 614.54
Rajon Rondo BOS 561.67
Paul Pierce BOS 521.46
Mo Williams CLE 459.75
Ron Artest LAL 429.80
Kevin Garnett BOS 424.22
Lamar Odom LAL 424.09
Andrew Bynum LAL 421.91
Ray Allen BOS 415.30
Anderson Varejao CLE 383.78
Kendrick Perkins BOS 321.57
Rasheed Wallace BOS 281.58
Derek Fisher LAL 265.35
Anthony Parker CLE 252.55
Jamario Moon CLE 234.39
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 227.67
Daniel Gibson CLE 209.90
Marquis Daniels BOS 178.45
J.J. Hickson CLE 141.43
========== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ==========
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.679
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.478
Ron Artest LAL 0.412
Lamar Odom LAL 0.390
Derek Fisher LAL 0.348
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.695
Paul Pierce BOS 0.626
Ray Allen BOS 0.453
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.449
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.384
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.320
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.302
LeBron James CLE 0.872
Mo Williams CLE 0.519
Jamario Moon CLE 0.352
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.304
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.279
Anthony Parker CLE 0.269
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.266
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.234
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
LeBron James CLE 0.872
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.695
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.679
Paul Pierce BOS 0.626
Mo Williams CLE 0.519
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.478
Ray Allen BOS 0.453
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.449
Ron Artest LAL 0.412
Lamar Odom LAL 0.390
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.384
Jamario Moon CLE 0.352
Derek Fisher LAL 0.348
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.320
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.304
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.302
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.279
Anthony Parker CLE 0.269
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.266
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.234
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Lamar Odom LAL 0.475
Ron Artest LAL 0.426
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.421
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.415
Derek Fisher LAL 0.313
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.496
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.448
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.425
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.351
Ray Allen BOS 0.289
Paul Pierce BOS 0.286
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.181
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.558
Jamario Moon CLE 0.435
LeBron James CLE 0.371
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.351
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.309
Mo Williams CLE 0.227
Anthony Parker CLE 0.225
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.168
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.558
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.496
Lamar Odom LAL 0.475
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.448
Jamario Moon CLE 0.435
Ron Artest LAL 0.426
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.425
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.421
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.415
LeBron James CLE 0.371
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.351
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.351
Derek Fisher LAL 0.313
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.309
Ray Allen BOS 0.289
Paul Pierce BOS 0.286
Mo Williams CLE 0.227
Anthony Parker CLE 0.225
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.181
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.168
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use Real Player Ratings. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
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