As promised in the prequel to this review of the only Quest Report in history to be declared an error after publication, we are now going to go over each of the 16 reasons given in that Report for why the Denver Nuggets were supposedly, definitely not going to win any playoff series in 2009. They did win a series, and we actually can see why if we find out that somehow Darth and the Nuggets avoided most of these sixteen things from happening.
The idea from that January 14 Report that turned out to be very wrong was that although not all of the 16 things would go wrong for the Nuggets in the playoffs, enough of them would go wrong that the Nuggets would fail to win a series. Technically, the Nuggets were not supposed to win more than two playoff games; whereas they actually won ten.
I now take them one by one and break down what happened and why.
REASON ONE WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
1. The Nuggets’ opponent will finally realize that this is not really Carmelo Anthony’s team anymore, if it ever was, and that Carmelo Anthony is not the player who can or will beat you in more than one or two games in a 4-6 games playoff series. Carmelo Anthony has rebounding duties now and, although in a surprise development he has a three point shot for a change, his garden variety jump shooting is nothing much to worry about anymore as a result of his agreeing to being downsized in the offense.
Yes it's true, George Karl and the Nuggets have shot themselves in the foot by telling Carmelo Anthony to "not worry about scoring" anymore. They decided that they can do without having available to them a player who can dominate scoring to one extent to another. Karl believes in what you might call the Indirect Scoring Theory of basketball, which states that a good offense in general and good scoring in particular emerges indirectly from other factors, which are thought of in this theory as more fundamental, things such as, you guessed it, aggressive man to man defending and hustling for loose balls. However, unfortunately, there isn't in real life an automatic connection between those kinds of things and the number of points scored, at least not to the extent needed to win playoff games against quality offensive teams.
The opponent will realize that Chauncey Billups and to a lesser extent Nene are the only players on the Nuggets who can possibly endanger their winning the playoff series. With the downsizing of Carmelo Anthony having made the shortage worse, the Nuggets do not have any where near enough experienced playoff warriors to pose a real threat to win a playoff series against any reasonably well managed or reasonably playoff-experienced team.
HOW REASON ONE PLAYED OUT
This reason why the Nuggets would lose in the playoffs, which was supposed to be a big one, didn’t play out at all, because Carmelo Anthony agreed with Quest for the Ring and broke out of the box that George Karl tried to put him in. New Orleans, Dallas, and Los Angeles all had to contend with the classic Carmelo Anthony, the highly skilled scoring maniac version.
That Anthony sided with Quest against Karl was a surprise mainly because during the regular season Anthony had clearly ramped down shooting and scoring in favor of rebounding and assisting. Melo's defensive rebounding percentage rate shrunk from 17.0% in the regular to 13.3% in the playoffs. Whereas his scoring rate jumped from 23.8 points in the regular to 25.6 points in the playoffs per 36 minutes. Whereas even great scorers usually see a big drop off in scoring in the playoffs since they are playing much better defenses then.
But although it was a surprise, that Anthony agreed with Quest for the Ring and changed back to the classic version for the playoffs was not a shock, because most basketball players are in fact smart enough to realize that you don’t win a Championship by trying to follow vague “well rounded player” formulas.
REASON TWO WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
Point guard Chauncey Billups, for all practical purposes, is the offensive Coach of the Nuggets, and arguably the Coach of the team as a whole. As such, he deserves to get a whole lot of defensive extra attention. All other Nuggets are afraid of the wrath of George Karl were they to show any real initiative with respect to being a playmaker. So once again, the opponent must and will double and hassle Billups all game every game.
HOW REASON TWO PLAYED OUT
Incidentally, the sarcastic wording of this and a few of the other reasons reflect the fact that at the time it was written, I essentially had a perfect record of explaining how basketball playoff games are won and why and how George Karl is often wrong about how he coaches. You know what they say: pride goeth before the fall...
You can see that the theory was that Anthony would be shooting himself in the foot by doing what Karl wanted and then the playoff opponent would see that and concentrate on Billups. But obviously, when Anthony decided that Karl was not correct in telling him to not go all out for scoring, the other teams were in big trouble from the get go if they assumed that Anthony was going to be limited as he was during most of the regular season.
In game one of the Mavericks–Nuggets series, the Mavericks did indeed assume that it was actually more important to contain Billups than Anthony, and they did contain Billups very well in that game. But when in game one Anthony didn’t play by the Karl rules, and when the Nuggets’ fast breaking offense based mostly on their defense kicked into an extremely high gear, the Mavericks quickly changed their minds and decided to starting in game two treat Anthony and Billups as equally dangerous, and to give the Nuggets’ overall offense a lot more respect in general.
But that change in who to be most worried about was not enough for the Mavericks’ defense. As the Quest report series for Mavericks-Nuggets shows, the Mavericks were caught a little too banged up (specifically, they could not afford to have Josh Howard on weak ankles) and not defensively tough enough to be able to successfully contend with the Nuggets flawed in theory, ultimately limited, but very high octane and relatively successful offense,
It wasn’t just that the Mavericks’ defense “did not match up well” with the Nuggets’ offense. Rather, it was that no defense matched up well with the Nuggets’ offense, and that was the whole secret of the success of it. Karl and company (Darth Vader) were trying to pull a fast one over their playoff opponents, both figuratively and literally, just as they did to opponents over and over during the regular season.
And so the Nuggets did overwhelm the Mavericks with raw talent, a defense first mentality, aggressiveness, energy, and speed, at least up until the Lakers, just barely in time as it were, saw through the Nuggets’ game and realized that the Nuggets had not really come up with a true winning strategy. The Nuggets had achieved most of what is needed to win the Quest other than winning strategies for offense and defense, but lacking those they were doomed to eventually fell flat.
The relatively close call for the Lakers will hopefully teach Phil Jackson to keep Quest for the Ring on his reading list, laugh out loud.
The NBA Championship is most likely never going to be won by a team that bases their offense almost entirely on pace and fast breaking off of a very aggressive defense. If you have little in the way of offensive play making and strategy, you are not going to be winning a ring. Nor is the Championship ever going to be won by a team that on defense thinks that aggressiveness and energy, up to and including a high fouling rate, is more important than skilled and smart defending.
REASON THREE WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
With Nene you want to get him into foul trouble, pure and simple. What you do is simple: go at him early and often offensively. Don’t try to foul him as much as you try to get him to foul you. The Nuggets are still a high turnover team, and that includes Nene. Do not be overly concerned that Nene has such a high field goal percentage. He hardly tries any midrange jumpers, and he will turn it over often enough to keep the damage from all his point blank layups and dunks within reason.
HOW REASON THREE PLAYED OUT
Well let’s check how Nene did in the Mavericks series. RPR stands for Real Player Rating, which is one of the most important Quest performance measures.
NENE IN THE MAVERICKS—NUGGETS SERIES
Game One: RPR .983, 2 fouls, 3 turnovers, 24 points; the Nuggets as a whole had 14 turnovers
Game Two: RPR .808, 2 fouls, 1 turnover, 25 points,; the Nuggets as a whole had 9 turnovers
Game Three: RPR .375, 5 fouls, 2 turnovers, 5 points; the Nuggets as a whole had 7 turnovers
Game Four: RPR .376, 5 fouls, 2 turnovers, 9 points; the Nuggets as a whole had 11 turnovers
Game Five: RPR .519, 4 fouls, 4 turnovers, 17 points; the Nuggets as a whole had 13 turnovers.
So there you have it. As previously reported the referees were letting some Nuggets fouls go in games one and two, most likely including a few Nene fouls. When the series went to Dallas, all of a sudden Nene was virtually fouling out. With respect to Nene turnovers, in games one and five the problem was there but his turnovers were more reasonable in games two, three, and four.
Nene was hobbled as we predicted, but only in games three, four, and five. (The series was effectively over before game five ever tipped so Nene’s game five is technically irrelevant). But in games one and two, Nene was contained by neither the Mavericks nor the referees, and he was an extremely important reason why the Nuggets were able to steamroll the Mavericks in those games.
Overall Nuggets turnovers were very, very low; the average number of turnovers in a game is about 14 and the Nuggets averaged only 10.8 turnovers a game. This shows you how determined the Nuggets were to prove Quest wrong and win a series after five straight seasons of losing quickly in the first round. It also of course shows you that Dallas in 2008-09 was not aggressive and energetic enough on defense. On defense you need skills but you also need aggressiveness and energy. Just one of those is not going to do it for you. There were only four teams whose opponents committed fewer turnovers than the Mavericks’ opponents committed. This shows you that the Mavericks were not forcing enough turnovers.
The Lakers and the Nuggets were near the top for forcing turnovers, while Orlando was, like Dallas, near the bottom. We all know how Orlando flamed out in the Championship, and one of the reasons was their inability to force a turnover or two in critical situations. Forcing a turnover, especially with a steal, is one of the very best ways to change momentum in a game, and so it is one of the very best ways for an underdog team to help itself to win a game and perhaps even score an upset in a playoff series.
Allen Iverson back when he took the 76’ers to the 2001 Championship was extremely good at getting steals that hardly anyone else was going to get and this is one of the important reasons explaining how the 76’ers were able to shock the East and the entire basketball world and make it to that Championship.
REASON FOUR WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
Three of the four best offensive players on the Nuggets are all relatively high turnover rate players: Carmelo Anthony, Nene, and J.R. Smith. A good opponent will make sure it goes after these players and forces as many turnovers by them as possible. Offensive fouls are a particular kind of turnover, and all three of these Nuggets have “style problems” with the refs and are therefore vulnerable to being called for offensive fouls at a higher than typical rate. In recent years, Carmelo Anthony has been hammered in the playoffs with a large number of offensive foul calls against him.
HOW REASON FOUR PLAYED OUT
The scenario in this reason the Nuggets would lose did not even come close to coming true, as explained already in reason number three. Although the Nuggets were a high turnover team in 2008-09, the Mavericks were completely unable to force turnovers to any extent at all, leaving them vulnerable to being rolled. The Nuggets had a major vulnerability with respect to turnovers that the Mavericks totally ignored or were unable to exploit. As a result, when the Mavericks fell behind the Nuggets in games one and two, they were unable to change the momentum and get back into the game by forcing a few turnovers.
It is interesting to note that so far in 2009-10, the Nuggets are now an average turnover team, which is considered very positive with respect to winning the Quest. An average number of turnovers is sometimes better than being below average; the lowest turnover teams are sometimes (not always) ones whose offense is too predictable and/or too lacking a passing game to be able to win the Quest. The bottom line is that although turnovers are not among the very most important factors for determining who wins the Quest, they are not exactly unimportant either.
REASON FIVE WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
Generally, the coaches of the Nuggets’ opponent will most of the time correctly choose the defensive matchups that are best for them, and make the correct
decision between zone and man to man defending. Meanwhile, the Nuggets’ coaching
staff will be over relying on man to man defending. The Nuggets in at least two
or three playoff games will have to reduce the minutes of two or more of their
aggressive man to man defenders as a result of foul trouble, particularly if the
Nuggets play teams such as the Spurs and the Jazz who are highly trained at
drawing fouls and who are experts at “playing the referees” in general, whereas
the Nuggets, being newcomers to the game of milking the referees, are mere
amateurs.
HOW REASON FIVE PLAYED OUT
Well, the Nuggets actually looked like long-time experts at exploiting the referees. In fact, since they were simultaneously using on defense a high fouling strategy and on offense a high getting fouled strategy and both worked well in both the Hornets and the Mavericks series, the Nuggets in those two series looked like one of the all-time greatest referee exploiters laugh out loud.
In quarter four of game two, when obviously the Mavericks were very much still alive in the series, Rick Carlisle made a mockery of my prediction that the coach of the Nuggets opponent would make good defensive decisions in key situations.
In this game, which was game two in Denver, the Mavs and Nugs played almost even through three quarters; it was 86-83 Denver after three. Mavericks superstar Dirk Nowitzki asked for and received extra rest time at the beginning of the 4th quarter.
The problem was that Rick Carlisle then installed a very small lineup at the start of the 4th, which was promptly routed by the Nuggets due to the Nuggets' relentless driving into the paint, mixed up nicely with a fast breaking attack. The Mavs super small lineup to start the 4th was:
--JJ Barea PG, 6'0"
--Jason Terry PG, 6'2"
--Antoine Wright SG, 6'7"
--Brandon Bass PF, 6'8"
--James Singleton PF, 6'8"
This lineup resulted in the Nuggets going on a devastating 16-2 run, making it 102-85 Nuggets with six minutes left in the game. The Mavericks had gone from very much alive in the game and in the series to dead in the game and on life support in the series. You see what can happen when a coach makes a bad decision? Never underestimate how much bad (or how much good) a coach can do in a game between relatively evenly matched pro basketball teams. The force is with the coaches should they be able to use it correctly.
Also, Carlisle should have severely reduced Eric Dampier’s minutes in favor of other forwards and centers. Assuming he wasn’t injured, James Singleton should have received a lot more playing time than he did.
See this report for still more details.
Carlisle is generally a good defensive coach and he does not usually make mistakes of this magnitude. In fact, to his credit, Carlisle realized relatively quickly that the Nuggets were using a unique, highly aggressive, high fouling strategy on defense, a strategy seldom seen because (a) most coaches think that a high fouling strategy has more costs than benefits and (b) often when it is used a high fouling strategy is nullified by the referees calling a lot of fouls and by the fouled players making their free throws. Whenever the referees call those extra fouls, a team running this gamble of a strategy is probably going to lose the game.
However, as shown in games one and two, when ironically the Nuggets were called for very, very few fouls the referees do not always ramp up their foul calling in response to a highly aggressive defense that often resorts to intentionally fouling a lot. We still don't know exactly how often the referees will respond with more foul calls and how often they will take it easy on teams who when push comes to shove cross the line from very aggressive defending (which the referees seem to respect quite a bit) to more or less intentionally fouling (which the referees like everyone else hate).
Let me note in fairness, though, that the Nuggets mostly didn't have to actually cross the line between aggressive defending and intentional fouling in games one and two, because the Nuggets were mostly using energy and speed as opposed to aggressiveness and fouling in those games and, meanwhile, the Dallas offense simply could not get fully untracked; see part two of this Report for more on that subject. The referees should have called a few more fouls against the Nuggets in games one and two, but not a lot more, and the games still would have been won by Denver even if the referees had called a few more fouls on them.
Long before the Mavericks series took place, Quest warned everyone including potential Nuggets playoff opponents that this is what the Nuggets were doing, and we also gave the recommended counter move, which was to respond in kind and wait until the referees started calling a lot of fouls so as to damp down all the excess fouling and to thereby prevent the game from spinning completely out of control. Carlisle understood the situation accurately and followed what Quest recommended exactly in game three.
REASON SIX WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
J.R. Smith is extremely dangerous, but much more in theory than in reality, and only in the regular season most likely. In practice the Nuggets have made Smith much less dangerous than he could be. But the Nuggets’ opponent will, at the first sign that J.R. Smith may go on a tear of hitting a bunch of threes and of impressive drives to the hoop, do whatever is necessary to force him to lose his confidence, including hard fouling, double covering, going for steals and getting a couple of them off of him, and running a much larger number of offensive plays than otherwise through whoever he is covering. Good coaches know that to cool down a streaky offensive player, you can make him work harder and attempt to break down his overall confidence by beating him when he is on defense.
Good playoff coaches will be aware that as a result of Smith being considered the “black sheep” by the Nuggets personality police, that he is vulnerable to losing his confidence, and is also vulnerable to having his minutes cut way back in the playoffs by Personality Police Chief George Karl. Smith’s personality problem is not that he has a bad personality as the Nuggets falsely believe, but that he has an immature personality. But George Karl and those who blindly support him have created the impression in J.R.’s mind that there is something wrong with his personality and that he is lacking something mentally that other players have, that he should and must have.
So Mr. Karl has made the impact of Smith’s immature personality as bad as possible for the Nuggets, by refusing to start him regardless of how well he plays, by recklessly and publicly criticizing him for minor things, by leaving him in toss up games late in the 4th quarter, which is the one context that J.R.’s immature personality can harm your team, and by, amazingly, refusing to even talk off court to the young shooting guard were he to want to discuss something.
As a result of being immature to begin with, and as a result of George Karl recklessly and severely making J.R. much more vulnerable to losing his confidence in high pressure games than he already was, J.R. Smith has been largely or completely a non-factor so far in almost all playoff games. Smith’s turnover rate has continued to be high even as his offensive and defensive game has become more mature and polished overall. There is no reason to believe that Smith’s big confidence vulnerability will not continue for most playoff games this year. However, if somehow Smith is showing signs that he might break out of the box that the Nuggets have put him in, it should be easy to put him back in that box by aggressively defending, fouling, and running plays at the extremely talented but immature shooting guard.
HOW REASON SIX PLAYED OUT
Well let’s check this out:
J.R. SMITH IN THE MAVERICKS-NUGGETS SERIES
Game One: RPR: .966, 7/13 shooting, 0/2 on threes, 0 turnovers, 15 points
Game Two: RPR: 1.262, 6/10 shooting, 3/7 on threes, 0 turnovers, 21 points
Game Three: RPR: .511, 3/10 shooting, 1/4 on threes, 0 turnovers, 10 points
Game Four: RPR .605, 7/10 shooting, 2/3 on threes, 1 turnover, 19 points
Game Five: RPR .964, 5/13 shooting, 4/10 on threes, 1 turnover, 18 points
We thought Smith would be limited to one outstanding game per series but as you can see he had three outstanding games in this one. Only a minority of players can ever exceed 1.200 RPR in a playoff game and Smith is one of them.
Clearly, this reason did not play out like we thought it might. Even in the two Dallas games (game three and four) you could hardly say that Smith tanked or didn’t have enough confidence or choked or anything like that. He was still decent even in those Dallas games; his famous inconsistency was no where near as extreme in this series as it was so often in the past.
The only conclusion you can make is that this reason did not play out as we thought it might to any extent. It turns out that being coached by George Karl does not necessarily ruin your confidence and composure for life, laugh out loud. I guess J.R. Smith, for all his mysteriousness and inconsistency, is not someone who is going to be scarred for life by bad coaching. Who would have known unless the crazy experiment had been run?
The review of the sixteen reasons the Nuggets were going to lose continues in part 2.
THE DARTH VADER OF BASKETBALL
