The Situation as of January 24, 2010: QFTR Projects the Boston Celtics versus the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2011 Championship

CURRENT MAJOR CONTENDERS as of January 24, 2011

THE EAST
Main Primary Contender: Boston Celtics
Alternate Primary Contender: Miami Heat
Wild Card Long Shot: Orlando Magic
Big Long Shot: Chicago Bulls
Extreme Long Shot: Atlanta Hawks

THE WEST
Main Primary Contender: Los Angeles Lakers
Alternate Primary Contender: San Antonio Spurs
Wild Card Long Shot: Oklahoma Thunder
Big Long Shot: Dallas Mavericks
Extreme Long Shot: New Orleans Hornets

CONFERENCE AND LEAGUE FINALS PROJECTIONS AS OF JANUARY 24, 2011
2011 NBA EAST FINAL
Boston Celtics over Miami Heat 4-3

2011 NBA WEST FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers over San Antonio Spurs 4-2

2011 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP
Boston Celtics over Los Angeles Lakers 4-3

COMMENTS
Editorial Note: The following comments are limited by time limitations and by editorial considerations. In a “Situation Report”, the comments about teams are limited to a selection of main and summary type points. Only a few details and little if any hard proof is presented in this type of Report. Complete details about any of the following teams, including hard proof of points made, can be found in Reports dedicated to those teams. Unfortunately, the light traffic that QFTR gets limits the production schedule in such a way that we can not cover all of the possible contenders in detail. However, there is a minimum production level, and that is probably enough to cover the two primary contenders in each Conference in detail in the next few months (Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, and Heat).

THE ASSOCIATION IN GENERAL
The 2011 Conference finals and Championship are shaping up to be among the best of the last thirty years. True, none of the teams are as good as the Bulls were when they won theirs, or even as good as the Spurs were during at least a couple of their Championships. So if you are looking for all time great teams, 2011 is not your year. But if you are looking for exciting six and seven game series, 2011 most likely will be your year.

The Celtics are a little too old too injury prone and way too weak in rebounding to be one of the all time great teams. The Heat are definitely not an all time great team because they are not set up right at point guard and are likely to have some paint defending problems in the playoffs. Although there are many worse fates, the Lakers are too dependent on Kobe Bryant, and other than Lamar Odom, the Lakers’ big men are a little too inconsistent for them to be considered one of the all time great teams. The San Antonio Spurs are coached brilliantly by Greg Popovich and managed brilliantly, with their roster being a piece of art, but they are one superstar short of being in the all time great category.

BOSTON CELTICS: EAST PRIMARY CONTENDER
Doc Rivers and the Celtics continue to live high off the hog, the hog being Rajon Rondo, who must be hogging the top spot this year among NBA point guards. With all due respect to Chris Paul, I will be amazed if when the 2011 Real Player Ratings come out Rondo has not surged well ahead of Paul. The Celtics on offense have in Rondo a sophisticated cruise control that most other teams can only dream about having. Coach Rivers just switches on the cruise control and leans back to enjoy the ride; nice work if you can get it.

On the downside the Celtics have been hammered with injury problems again this year: right now Kendrick Perkins, Delonte West, and Jermaine O’Neal are all out indefinitely, and Kevin Garnett has already missed ten games here at the halfway point of the season. I’ll go on record right here and now that if the Lakers (or the Spurs) beat the Celtics in the 2011 Championship it will be because Perkins, West, and O’Neal are all unavailable. If just two of them are unavailable it could possibly flip the Championship series from Boston to LA, but probably not from Boston to San Antonio.

As of right now, I am predicting, with to be honest no way of knowing for sure or guaranteeing, that either Perkins or at least O’Neal will play in the playoffs and that the Celtics will squeak by the Lakers (or the Spurs). Why? Very simple my dear Watson: the Celtics are designed, organized, and operated in a perfect way to win the Quest. There are good ways and then there are the best (or easiest) ways to win it, and Boston is following most of the best ways, whereas the Lakers are settling for a mix of good and best ways and whereas the Spurs ultimately just don’t have the power and talent to beat the Celtics in a best of seven, provided again the Celtics have at least one of these three players: Kendrick Perkins, Delonte West, and Jermaine O’Neal. If it was San Antonio versus Boston with all three of those players out, and assuming San Antonio had no one important out, the Spurs could possibly beat the Celtics but even then I wouldn’t bet on it.

MIAMI HEAT: EAST ALTERNATE PRIMARY CONTENDER
The Heat’ point guard strategy at the beginning of the season was laughable; they originally thought that LeBron James and Dwyane Wade could take care of the playmaking responsibility as an aside to their more important duties, with their designated point guard being in a back-up role for playmaking, laugh out loud. Although after losing some regular season games they could have won they have since realized that idea would never fly, they still are more or less in flounder mode when it comes to who exactly is going to really be responsible for making plays in general and for making those extra plays that win you playoff games in particular. If you try to do playmaking by committee, or if you leave it up to chance, your chances of winning the Quest have just dropped to near zero regardless of whether LeBron James is on your team or not, especially if you have to get by one of the greatest point guards of all time, Rajon Rondo, just to get to the Championship.

Another big problem for the Heat is the fact that their top rebounder Udonis Haslem is out until at least early April. Assuming he is back for the playoffs (which is by no means guaranteed) one big question will be whether he will still be the huge rebounder he was before he left. If not, (or even if so but due to habits being hard to break) you can expect LeBron James to make some rebounds that Haslem should have made, which is bad for the Heat because then James doesn’t get as many easy scores in transition.

In general, the problem with LeBron James winning Championships is that he is too “well rounded”. Contrary to what some coaches think, “well-roundedness” is NOT such a wonderful thing when it comes to winning Championships. LeBron is usually going to automatically move to fill in any gap that shows up in rebounding or anything else, due to an injury or due to anything else LeBron is like a machine that automatically tries to make up for any shortcoming on his team. The problem is that by spreading himself around like that LeBron becomes much less effective in his highest payoff roles: he becomes less effective as a scoring machine and at least a little less effective as one of the really good man to man defenders.

ORLANDO MAGIC: EAST WILD CARD
Can the Magic make up for Dwight Howard’s weaknesses this year enough to slip past the Heat and the Celtics? Most likely they can not, despite having a free spending and aggressive management and despite having one of the top coaches in the League in Stan Van Gundy. Although he is not as great as his brother, Jeff Van Gundy (who is these days the best live game commentator out there) Stan Van Gundy is going to apparently be the best coach among the three coaches of the three top teams in the East this year: Miami, Boston, and Orlando. I say “apparently” because the jury is still out on Erik Spoelstra and because there is some confusion about exactly how good Doc Rivers is; while it is clear that Rivers is at least a good coach, how good he is open to argument.

Orlando did make a pretty big mistake recently when they traded away center Marcin Gortat and left themselves with no playoff caliber center to back up Dwight Howard. Whenever Howard gets into foul trouble the Magic will generally be hosed. In December the Magic traded away forward Rashard Lewis, 2-guard Vince Carter, 2-guard Mickael Pietrus, and Center Marcin Gortat. In exchange the Magic ended up with point guard Gilbert Arenas, small forward Hedo Turkoglu, guard-forward Jason Richardson and a young forward named Earl Clark who will almost certainly not be playing. Turkoglu is an overrated fan favorite who will play better for Orlando than he did for Toronto (which was not good at all) but when you look at the head to head versus the Celtics and the Heat (Paul Pierce and LeBron James respectively) the Magic still look to be utterly destroyed at Turkoglu’s position in the playoffs.

When all is said and done, trading away Marcin Gortat for Hedo Turkoglu is not really a net gain for Orlando. And while Jason Richardson is an above average 2-guard, Vince Carter is a way above average 2-guard who can by himself win a playoff game on occasion, so Richardson for Carter is a net loss for Orlando. Oh well, at least the Magic are not dumb enough to even think about making Gilbert Arenas the starting point guard over Jameer Nelson.

With respect to the Orlando power forwards, Stan Van Gundy is making a mistake by thinking that Brandon Bass is better than Ryan Anderson. In reality Anderson is substantially better than Bass and should be getting much more playing time than he is. Brandon Bass was overrated by the Dallas Mavericks coaches and now he is overrated by the Orlando Magic coaches.

The bottom line truth (as yet undiscovered by the general public) is that the Magic are not quite as good as they were last year and the year before that (when they beat LeBron and the Cavaliers and lost to the Lakers in the Championship). Therefore, as long as they don’t have huge injury problems, either the Miami Heat or the Boston Celtics should be able to this year in the playoffs beat the Magic in at most six games.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS: WEST PRIMARY CONTENDER
The reason why Phil Jackson debated at all about whether to return for one last season was probably that the Lakers are actually one of the weaker Championship teams, and one of the more difficult to coach ones, of let’s say the last fifty years. Certainly, it was a piece of cake for Jackson to coach the Chicago Bulls to six Championships compared with the difficulties involved with getting rings for the Lakers. Not only is Kobe Bryant no Michael Jordan, but other than with Kobe and Lamar Odom, the Lakers do not consistently bring everything they have to every game. The Lakers work ethic (other than Kobe and Odom) borders on scandalous. Sometimes, some of the Lakers get lazy and decide to take a night off.

For example, Pau Gasol in some games loses a little focus and energy and misses some shots in the paint he usually makes. Similarly, Ron Artest can lose a little focus and energy and commit a bunch of dumb fouls and/or Artest can brick some threes and/or he can be completely off the reservation as far as the triangle offense is concerned. Then there is Shannon Brown who is inconsistent even by 2-guard standards.

As to why all these Lakers are prone to inconsistency and nights off, your guess is as good as mine. Whether Phil Jackson knows the reason(s) or not, the main reactions of Phil Jackson are to stare those lazy bums down from court side and if necessary call them out in the media; that’s the master at work for you.

It turns out that Shannon Brown is much more important than you probably think with respect to whether the Lakers can win the West and the League this year. No guard including Kobe Bryant can handle everything needed from the backcourt to win the NBA Championship, yet the Lakers sometimes seem like they are demanding him to do just that. The good news is that Shannon Brown is significantly better this year than last, when he was practically more of a hindrance than a help in the playoffs. The bad news is that Brown remains, as already mentioned, very inconsistent, is still not an outstanding 2-guard, and can not possibly be considered as an adequate back up point guard.

Andrew Bynum is consistent if and only if not bothered by lingering effects from various injuries; if the Lakers knew that Bynum was going to be 100% for this year’s run they would be a lot more confident and optimistic right now than they are.

Matt Barnes is a synonym for “consistent” and “never lazy” and is therefore exactly what the Lakers need as an insurance policy for at least winning the West. Barnes is roughly as good as Ron Artest defensively (regardless of Artest’ huge rep) and unlike Artest, Barnes is extremely consistent and dependable. But Barnes is out until about mid March with right knee surgery, which will for one thing help contribute to the Lakers very possibly losing home court advantage to the Spurs.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS: WEST ALTERNATE PRIMARY CONTENDER
The Spurs despite having gotten rid of a bunch of old players, still have a moderate age problem: Tim Duncan is 34, Manu Ginobili is 33, and Anthony McDyess is 36. Matt Bonner, backing Duncan and McDyess at the four, is at 30 years of age a spring chicken by comparison. But don’t be confused about or fooled by all this talk about Duncan having a reduced role now that the Spurs have a bunch of younglings; Duncan is the same old Duncan defensively including with rebounding, and offensively we are talking about a reduction of about 15% which is hardly big.

At the opposite age extreme the Spurs have DeJuan Blair who although only 21 years old generally starts at Center for the revamped Spurs. Now you would think that the Spurs, being one of the best managed teams in the League, would have made sure they had one of the best young centers, right? You thought right, because sure enough, Blair is one of the best rebounders in the NBA, and yet for a second year guy he can score well, and for the icing on the cake DeJuan Blair even makes some quality assists, and he makes way more steals than most centers make. The Spurs are generally going to be near the top of the heap in the underappreciated steals category and they are so this year.

Blair is not a lock down defender, but that’s where “Timmy”, as Tony Parker calls Tim Duncan, and where the old man, Antonio McDyess, come in. Duncan and McDyess are two of the very best defenders in the League.

Although not as over hyped as Tim Duncan supposedly being in a reduced role, the idea that the Spurs have become a “fast break team” is also overblown. The Spurs have become an average pace team, but average in a very smart way. Unlike the Spurs of yesteryear, the Spurs are always on the lookout for fast break opportunities, but on the other hand, with Greg Popovich and Tony Parker at the helm, the Spurs remain one of the very best half court, take as much time as necessary to get a good shot, teams in the NBA. In other words the Spurs offensively are trying to have the best of both worlds, and end up with a pace right in the middle of the pack; this is an extremely smart way to play, especially for a team that consists of a bunch of older players and a bunch of youthful players.

One thing not over hyped is the idea that the Spurs of 2011 unlike those of their Championship years are even better offensively than defensively. Although still a top ten team defensively, the Spurs so far this year are one of the three best teams in the League offensively, with Tony Parker having what is probably his best year ever at the point.

Regardless of how magical the Spurs are in 2011, the big problem they can’t do anything about is that Phil Jackson has numerous times in the past defeated Greg Popovich in the playoffs even if he had an inferior team! Since the Lakers are at least competitive with the Spurs talent wise, the age-old truth that Jackson outcoaches Popovich in the playoffs will likely emerge once again and lead to the Spurs being defeated by the Lakers this May. If on the other hand Popovich were to somehow unexpectedly come up with a formula with which he could beat Jackson, it would spoil the story book ending to his story book career that Phil Jackson is looking for this June.

OKLAHOMA THUNDER: WEST WILD CARD
Whereas George Karl never liked it when Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith were the top scoring tandem in the NBA which they were back in 2006 (because he never liked J.R. Smith) Coach Scott Brooks of the Thunder, being possessed of all his faculties, has no problem of course with point guard Russell Westbrook and small forward Kevin Durant being the top scoring tandem in the League this year. These two are magic and you don’t like basketball if you don’t like to watch these two and the rest of the Thunder this year.

But if Brooks would only have the nerve to start unbelievable Serge Ibaka and make sure he averages at least 33 minutes a game, the Thunder would be a real possible threat to the top dogs of the West: the Lakers and the Spurs. I don’t know why some coaches act as if there is a law that young players who are obviously better than older veterans can not start and must remain as off the bench players. There is no such law and generally coaches are only hurting their teams when they don’t allow an especially outstanding young player to start.

If you ever watch a Thunder game, you almost always see the Thunder make a big run late in the first quarter and in the first half of the second quarter. This is because these three players have checked in: Serge Ibaka and two other players who could start for some teams: shooting guard James Harden and point guard Eric Maynor. Serge Ibaka is by far the best of these three and has to be one of the best two or three players from off the bench in the NBA this year. It should be a crime for someone as good as Serge Ibaka to not start or to be playing any fewer than 30 minutes a game. The Thunder are good even without Ibaka starting, but again for emphasis, the only way the Thunder can really and truly challenge the Lakers or Spurs is if Ibaka is a full scale starter and plays at least 33 minutes a game.

Oklahoma is not as good defensively this year as last, which makes it all the more mandatory that Ibaka must start; there really is no choice at all in the matter and Scott Brooks has made a big blunder if he refuses (as is expected). The Lakers and the Spurs, however, will be very happy with Ibaka playing less than 30 minutes and not starting. Offensively, there are only three contending teams better than the Thunder, and none of them are all that much better: the Miami Heat, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the San Antonio Spurs. Whether or not they start Ibaka (and most likely they won’t) look for the Thunder to be substantially better defensively late in the regular season and in the playoffs; they have clearly had a “season plan” where they first perfect their offense and then move on to addressing the defense later on. This order of taking care of business is much smarter than the reverse order.

Did I mention that Ibaka has to start? Yeah, I covered that, laugh out loud.