Drowning in a River of Tears, The Denver Nuggets as of Spring 2011, Part One

Marcus Camby was traded away for nothing during and mostly because of the economic panic and he is long gone. Allen Iverson is long gone; he doesn't even play in the country anymore, but instead he plays in Turkey. Carmelo Anthony is recently gone. Chauncey Billups went with him despite being a Colorado legend and despite the fact he hated to leave. The best Nuggets of the last five-seven years have been slipping away one by one, in most cases long before their best playing days are over. The Nuggets have completely failed to hold on to their superstars.

Now among current Nuggets Raymond Felton, the young and outstanding true superstar point guard who was one of the players the Nuggets got from the Knicks for Carmelo, has warned repeatedly that he will likely want out of Denver if he can’t start at point guard for the Nuggets. And as you will find out in this Part, he most likely will NOT be able to start for the Nuggets. Kenyon Martin, who knows a playoff wipe-out when he sees one, and so he ripped into George Karl the other day for not ordering Kevin Durant to be doubled in the first two games of the 2011 first round series in Oklahoma versus the Thunder, is obviously not at all happy. And then there is J.R. Smith, who has the ultimate mother lode of reasons to be dissatisfied with Nuggets coaching, adding to this mix his warning that he will probably want out of Denver this summer.

Neither Kenyon Martin nor J.R. Smith is under contract for 2011-12. Felton is under contract for next year but he most likely is going to push to get out of Denver as soon as possible regardless. So when those three complain about George Karl’s and the Nuggets’ playoff collapse and/or about not getting earned playing time and/or about not starting, it could very easily lead to either one, two, or all three of them demanding out of Denver in the off-season coming up.

Are the Nuggets going to be able to get good replacements for Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith, and/or Ray Felton? Most likely not, especially when you remember that the blue chip managers that the Nuggets had who from about 2005 through 2009 built a very high quality roster WERE FIRED during the 2010 off season.

Although we have to wait and see whether Raymond Felton, Kenyon Martin and/or J.R. Smith do in fact get out of Denver, the bottom line at the moment is that Denver is to one extent or another coming apart at the seams. If you thought the unraveling was going to be limited to just the five players swept away in the Carmelo trade you were wrong to one extent or another.

A massive trade, especially one forced by a superstar who wants out, is sort of like an earthquake; there are aftershocks that can easily lead to more dislocations. After a massive trade it can in some cases be years before a team settles down and is all on the same page and acting as a completely unified and tight organization. In the “aftershock years” the team will often not be completely unified and when it is not that team will generally be easily beaten in the playoffs. Being unified and tight is one of the preconditions needed to reliably win in the playoffs.

George Karl’s failure to earn the trust and loyalty of Carmelo Anthony (and of course his inability to coach well in the playoffs) is the root cause of the earthquake. The details about that are found in Reports already produced and there is supposed to be another Report on the subject within a few months.

You know that cheap pair of pants made in Malaysia or some other $1 an hour country you bought at Wal-Mart that started unraveling at the seams not long after you bought it? That’s the Denver Nuggets as of right now; the Nuggets are coming apart at the seams. And you better not wear those just about to completely rip apart pants in public, laugh out loud.

Wait a minute, all of this unraveling is getting a little too extensive to keep track of without assistance, so let’s look at it player by player:

RECENTLY DEPARTED NUGGETS
CARMELO ANTHONY
He’s already gone of course. This superstar was dissatisfied with Nuggets’ coaching and real playoff prospects. (Thanks, Carmelo, and I do mean it very sincerely, for believing what Quest for the Ring (QFTR) teaches. QFTR has already started to and will continue to help the Knicks every way we can to get the Knicks in the best position to win The Quest for the Ring.

New rule: one player’s actions are worth 100,000 visits from the general public. So there you go, QFTR is a high traffic site, laugh out loud.

CHAUNCEY BILLUPS
This aging superstar point guard nearing retirement is already gone. Billups wanted to remain in Denver because he is from Colorado and likes it there, and he had no major problem with Karl as Karl liked him, but Billups was swept away in the Carmelo trade like debris in a storm.

RENALDO BALKMAN
This oversized small forward or undersized power forward is already gone. Unless brain dead, Balkman was dissatisfied with Nuggets’ coaching because in BOTH 2009-10 and 2010-11 he was not allowed to play except in garbage time despite all kinds of evidence from 2008-09 and prior that he is at least a very good / solid starter, well above average type of NBA forward.

ANTHONY CARTER
He is an already gone older, retiring soon point guard who was swept away in the Carmelo trade.

SHELDEN WILLIAMS
He is an already gone power forward who was a slightly below average power forward in his last playing time with the Nuggets; he was swept away in the Carmelo trade.

OUTSTANDING NUGGETS PLAYERS NOT YET GONE BUT THREATENING TO LEAVE
KENYON MARTIN
He is a power forward who had one of his best years ever in 2010-11 with a .926 Real Player Rating which is in the superstar range. At the moment Martin is disgusted with George Karl’s inability to come up with a way to contain Kevin Durant for even one single game. This isn't the first time Martin has gotten ticked off about Karl in the playoffs, by the way. There was a major argument between the two about six years ago that led to Martin being benched the details of which are outside the subject of this Report.

Martin is not under contract for 2011-12 (so he is a free agent I presume) and so obviously he may be leaving the Nuggets during the 2011 off season to finish his career elsewhere. He’s 33 years old and given that and how well he played he could easily have between two and four more productive years elsewhere.

RAYMOND FELTON
He is a high quality point guard who understands, respects, and produces on the court the all important point guard concept needed for one thing to win you playoff games. Felton came over from the Knicks in the Carmelo Anthony trade. As mentioned at the start, Felton has repeatedly warned that he will be attempting to get out of Denver as soon as possible if he can’t start at point guard. QFTR has repeatedly stated that Felton is completely correct in his assessment that he should start in Denver and that he is completely correct in his proposed solution. We do so yet again here.

But George Karl prefers to start Ty Lawson over Raymond Felton. Lawson is a quality point guard also and QFTR has stated so extensively. But QFTR just produced the Nuggets’ 2010-11 Real Player Ratings and they show that Felton was a much better player than Lawson was for the Nuggets in 2010-11. Felton played for the Nuggets only in the last third of the season so Lawson produced more because he was a Nugget all season long. But the ratings just calculated (and to be published here no later than in late June or very early July) show that Felton played at a level right at the borderline between superstar and historic superstar since arriving from New York:

Raymond Felton: 1.004: borderline between superstar and historic superstar
Ty Lawson: .851: star

The gap between Felton and Lawson turned out to be much, much greater than I thought it was going to be. Again, Lawson is a very good young point guard with a very, very promising future. His ratings will likely get higher in future years. But Felton is clearly the better of the two right now and clearly is somewhat more true to the all-important point guard concept than Lawson is right now. If your point guard doesn’t want to make as many plays as possible who is going to want to, the man on the moon? The bottom line is that Felton should start for the Nuggets over Lawson and it should be Lawson plotting to leave the Nuggets and not Felton. To be absolutely clear: if the Nuggets lose Felton and keep Lawson they will be worse off than if they lose Lawson and keep Felton. And this is true even though both of them are quality point guards.

Moreover, no point guard playing at Felton’s level should ever be just a back-up point guard. So Felton needs to follow in Carmelo Anthony’s and probably J.R. Smith’s footsteps and get out of Denver as soon as possible. There are many teams who are starting point guards much below Felton’s level, including for example the Miami Heat.

Furthermore, the real situation is most likely even worse than Felton thinks it is. George Karl is an institution in Denver and is basically worshipped by the ownership and by much of the press, specifically including the Denver Post. More broadly, Karl is often worshipped to one extent or another by national television broadcasters and journalists. Karl’s coaching contract has recently been renewed so he is going to remain in his role of winning a few extra regular season games and then mostly imploding in the playoffs for the next three years (through 2014) at a minimum. And yes, QFTR will continue to point out along every step of the way every mistake he makes in the regular season and especially in the playoffs.

So George Karl isn’t going anywhere regardless of how soundly the Thunder thrash the Nuggets in round one 2011. He was never going anywhere regardless of how badly he did in the playoffs. George Karl getting thrashed in the playoffs is par for the course in Denver and I know it may seem hard to believe but playoff implosions are accepted by ownership and even among some of the fan base since in their way of thinking Karl offsets this by producing very good to excellent regular season results year after year. I myself think that trade-off is goofy; what you want is a coach who wins a few extra regular season games AND can win in the playoffs. They do exist, you know.

But the Nuggets are owned by one of the richest pro sports team owners of them all. Men such as him always want even more money. And maybe his accountants have calculated that more money can be made by ensuring a really good regular season (with Karl) and then letting whatever little disaster happens in the playoffs happen. After all, the potential ticket and merchandise sales for regular season games must be much greater than the total potential ticket and merchandise sales for even a long playoff run. When money trumps sports, winning as the number one objective may fairly quickly be tossed out the window. So therefore, perhaps his accountants have informed the owner of the Nuggets that even if Karl can't coach well in the playoffs it is nevertheless a good idea to have him as coach from a financial perspective since Karl year after year produces a fairly smoothly run team that wins a few extra games in the long and profitable regular season.

The thing point guard Raymond Felton may not yet realize is that Karl does not rely only on basketball performance to decide who starts and to decide playing times. He rates personalities of players and if, for example, he decides that he likes Ty Lawson’s personality more than Raymond Felton’s personality there is nothing that Felton is going to be able to do about that because no one can change their personality to any significant extent. Karl grossly overestimates the magnitude of and how direct the connection is between personalities and basketball results. He thinks that “stronger personalities” (whatever they are) produce better results on the basketball court.

Know this and remember it: there is no evidence to back up this belief. Championships and playoff wins in general do NOT depend in any way on how “tough” or “good” the personalities of the players are. QFTR strongly teaches to ignore personalities and to look at actual performance on the basketball court when making playing time and starting decisions.

But what Karl thinks goes in Denver. Therefore, any player on the short end of the stick in the George Karl personality sweepstakes should attempt to get out of Denver as soon as possible.

To be absolutely clear: based on Karl’s extensive track record regarding decisions of this nature (and based on QFTR knowledge of how Karl thinks) Lawson will indefinitely and probably always start over Felton; Karl will most likely NEVER change his mind regardless of how much better Felton actually is than Lawson. Between that and just how great Felton actually was in 2010-11, Felton is even more correct than he thinks he is when he believes that getting out of Denver is a very good course of action for him to take. Either Felton gets out of Denver or his career will suffer, possibly as much as that of J.R. Smith.

J.R. SMITH
The J.R. Smith story is so interesting and so important that QFTR is making it part 2 of this “Nuggets Drowning in a River of Tears” Series. Part Two will be posted either one or two days after this part (Part One). And there will likely be a Part Three as well within a week or so. Part Three will explain exactly why and how the Thunder dismantled the Nuggets in the 2011 first round.

You get the idea? This river of tears is one heck of a long and twisting river.

WHY THIS SONG AND WHY THIS REPORT SERIES?
The Nuggets’ story in recent years is a very, very sad story indeed. Words can hardly convey how sad the story is. I honestly feel like I am drowning in a river of tears just from telling it and this isn’t the first time. To cover every last sad thing would take a book. I know that great players have been made frustrated and sad and that is the ultimate failure of any organization, or any country for that matter-that great people in it are frustrated and sad.

But it could have been even worse. For one thing, at least it seems that J.R. Smith has not been completely ruined. And you never know, sadness sometimes leads to anger and anger sometimes, finally leads to actions that finally make things better.

But as the song asks, “How long must this go on?” Well, I’ll tell you one thing, QFTR will be there for as long as it lasts and then beyond as long as it lasts. And we will never quit telling you what really is going on in basketball and we will never quit telling you about exactly how Championships are won and lost.

But right now, as we watch the Nuggets implode in the playoffs and we think about all of the Nuggets who have already left and as we watch in the Denver Post and so forth the procession of players expressing frustration and warning about leaving, let’s check out the new Denver Nuggets theme song. This new theme song replaces “Like a Rolling Stone” by Bob Dylan. The Nuggets are transitioning from a rolling stone type of team to a river of tears type of team.

First we’ll see the lyrics of the new Nuggets theme song and then we’ll hear the song.

For an interesting and appropriate experience, reread or at least skim over this Report while the song is playing; seldom does a song fit so tightly to a story. The Nuggets are nothing if not a sad story. I know personally they have made me very, very sad over the years; they have indeed produced a river of tears along with a river of basketball opportunities squandered. Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby all gone, just to name a few. When the best players seldom if ever retire on a team they have played their best for, something is seriously wrong with the management of the franchise.

RIVER OF TEARS LYRICS
Singer: Eric Clapton

It's three miles to the river
That would carry me away,
And two miles to the dusty street
That I saw you on today.

It's four miles to my lonely room
Where I will hide my face,
And about half a mile to the downtown bar
That I ran from in disgrace.

Lord, how long have I got to keep on running,
Seven hours, seven days or seven years?
All I know is, since you've been gone
I feel like I'm drowning in a river,

Drowning in a river of tears.
Drowning in a river.
Feel like I'm drowning,
Drowning in a river.

In three more days, I'll leave this town
And disappear without a trace.
A year from now, maybe settle down
Where no one knows my face.

I wish that I could hold you
One more time to ease the pain,
But my time's run out and I got to go,
Got to run away again.

Still I catch myself thinking,
One day I'll find my way back here.
You'll save me from drowning,
Drowning in a river,
Drowning in a river of tears.
Drowning in a river.
Feels like I'm drowning,
Drowning in the river.
Lord, how long must this go on?

Drowning in a river,
Drowning in a river of tears.
DENVER NUGGETS THEME SONG
ERIC CLAPTON: DROWINING IN A RIVER OF TEARS
ALBUM VERSION


DENVER NUGGETS THEME SONG
ERIC CLAPTON: DROWINING IN A RIVER OF TEARS
LIVE JAPAN CONCERT VERSION


Always remember, it's not whether you cry or not that is important but what you cry about and what you do about it after you cry that's important. Peace and wins to you all.