The Lucky Nuggets Steal a Game From the Timberwolves 111-108

The Nuggets stole a game in Denver over the Timberwolves, 111-108. Allen Iverson was the star, Marcus Camby made his 14th double-double of the season, with 12 points and 13 rebounds, and Carmelo Anthony was outstanding despite suffering from flu symptoms. But the Timberwolves had 3 bona fide stars in this game. Center Al Jefferson made his 29th double-double of the season, with 20 points and 16 rebounds. PF Ryan Gomes was 8/10, 2/3 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 20 points in 34 minutes, and he also made 4 steals, 3 assists, and 3 rebounds. Astoundingly, the Minnesota front court scored more than 80 points in this game. And the third star was Rashad McCants, who was 10/19 and 3/7 on 3’s for 23 points, and he also made 5 assists, 5 rebounds, and 1 block.

The Timberwolves were robbed, pure and simple. They officially lost their 16th straight road game, but they definitely deserved to have the nasty streak ended. The Wolves are now 0-7 in games decided by 4 points or less. A strange combination of good luck for the Nuggets and bad luck for the Timberwolves in the last couple minutes of the game overturned the outcome called for by the huge games by the 3 Timberwolves’ stars, and the Nuggets pocketed the stolen merchandise in the end. And the police let them leave the Pepsi Center without arresting them. That’s one of the many peculiar things about sports. You can commit a crime with tens of thousands watching you do it and yet you do not have to worry about being arrested.

The game was tied at 60 each at the half, and Minnesota led 90-87 after 3 quarters. In what should get any breathing and thinking Nuggets fan very disturbed, the Wolves, who are ranked as about the 28th best team in the League out of 30 teams by most raters, and the Nuggets, who are ranked as roughly the 13th best team, stayed within 2 points of each other during almost the entire 4th quarter. Here the Nuggets were playing at home, with rest, against one of the worst teams in the League, which was playing on back to back nights, and yet they were unable to put even a small amount of distance between themselves and the Wolves during the 4th quarter. It was another sign that the Nuggets are most likely doomed in the playoffs, assuming that they even get into them.

The Nuggets were mostly shooting jumpers in the second half of the 4th, while the Wolves were still surprisingly sharp on defense considering that they were playing on back to back nights. But on offense, the Wolves were not able to execute crisply enough so as to avoid a turnover risk. Iverson got a key steal off Jefferson in the paint with just under 6 minutes to go. Another key Wolves turnover came with 4:39 left, when PG Sebastian Telfair lost the handle and Melo intercepted the ball. Jefferson was apparently fouled on a lay-up with 4:21 left and the Nuggets leading 102-101, but there was no call. Yet another key turnover came with 3:37 left, as Ryan Gomes passed too low to Jefferson, and the ball went off Jefferson’s foot out of bounds.

The Wolves made a total of 8 turnovers in the 4th quarter, and most of them were unforced errors. But meanwhile, the Nuggets were in the dark version of their unstructured offense. They were tentative, not clear about how they wanted to try to defeat the Wolves, and they made 4 turnovers themselves in the 4th quarter.

A Marko Jaric “foul” on a three-point attempt by Iverson, followed by two out of three made free throws by the Answer, made it 104-103 Denver with 2:47 left in the game. Jaric’s “foul” was a touch foul at best. But then Linas Kleiza committed a reach-in foul on Al Jefferson, who also made two free throws, for 104-103 Minnesota with 2:28 to go. Then with 2 minutes to go, Anthony was stripped from behind by Antoine Walker.

Then the double-teamed Jefferson missed a little 9-foot hook shot and Camby snagged the rebound. Then Melo hooked his arm around Gomes just before receiving a pass, and he was called for the offensive foul-turnover. Then Antoine Walker, who was as wide open as you can get, swished a three for 108-104 Minnesota with 75 seconds left. The Nuggets called timeout, and Karl wanted the Nuggets to take it to the rim, but Iverson came up with another plan and, trust me, if he comes up with another plan, his gets priority over George Karl’s plan. Iverson wound up and aimed a lightning bolt three from beyond the arc almost dead center, and it was 108-107 Wolves with a minute left.

Then the Wolves, who were still trying to be cautious instead of aggressive, suffered their worst turnover of all, as Anthony Carter came in to deflect a Jaric to McCants pass. But Iverson missed the fast break lay-up, and a wild sequence ensued with Carter going up and out in the corner to save the out of bounds by hitting it back in, only to have Linas Kleiza called for a loose ball foul on Jefferson, with the Nuggets in the penalty. But then remarkably, Walker, who had just buried the three, missed not one but both free throws. Jefferson got a hold of the rebound off the second free throw miss, but his foot was apparently an inch out of bounds, and the Nuggets took over possession with 43 seconds left losing by 1.

Then Iverson, playing his 42nd minute of the game, but still with a full tank of energy, dribbled left side and made a beautiful fade-a-way jump shot for 109-108 Nuggets with 29 seconds left. Antoine Walker took a jumper with 10.9 seconds left, but it was too strong and bounced off a pack of players and out of bounds. The officials ruled it was last touched by Minnesota. The call had the Timberwolves, who fell to 1-20 on the road this season, steamed after the game. "I clearly saw it go off both of the Nuggets players," Walker said. "I just wished the referees would get together and make sure they made the right call. I let the ball go out because I figured it was out on them." Well, I looked closely at the play, and it was close, but I agree with Walker. It should have been Wolves ball and they should have had another chance to win it with 10 seconds left. Then as if to rub it in, a ref called a technical on the protesting Al Jefferson, but Melo missed the late in the game free throw, probably due to his flu problem. It was still 109-108 Nuggets with 10 seconds left, but now the Wolves had to intentionally foul.

On the subsequent inbounds play, Iverson was fouled by Marko Jaric. But Minnesota Coach Wittman took issue with that, thinking that Iverson traveled before the foul. "Iverson traveled. Traveled. Flat out," said Wittman, whose team has now lost 16 straight road games. "No ifs or could have been. Flat out, right in front of the referee." I looked at this play carefully as well, and once again, I agree with the Wolves’ version of the events. Iverson clearly took two steps before he was intentionally fouled in the face. Iverson then, and it had to be almost inevitable, sunk both free throws for 111-108 Denver with 6 seconds left. Rashad McCant’s three point attempt with a second left for possible overtime was a horrible air ball.

The Timberwolves were 43/81 from the field, 53.1%, whereas the Nuggets were 36/84, or 42.9%. The Timberwolves were a fantastic 10/22 from downtown, or 45.5%, whereas the Nuggets were only 4/14 or 28.6%. The Nuggets made 54 rebounds to 43 for the Timberwolves, but the Wolves made 24 assists to 20 for the Nuggets. Turnovers were about even, the Wolves made two more than did the Nuggets. Both teams were a little more careless than they wanted to or could afford to be.

An NBA game has, on average, about 42 personal fouls called, In this game, the total number of fouls was in fact 42, but it was as just about as lopsided as it gets. The Timberwolves were called for 28 personal fouls while the Nuggets were whistled for just 14 fouls. So the Wolves were in the poorhouse as far as free throws are concerned. The Nuggets made 35/43 free throws while the Timberwolves made 12/15. Minnesota Coach Randy Wittman was enraged. “All they had to do was yell tonight, which they did a good job of, and they get free throws," Wittman said. "We had guys dunking the ball, getting smacked. I guess I have to teach our guys to yell. I guess that's the factor." It’s impossible not to put some stock in Wittman’s complaint.

The early bird may get the worm, but the NBA players who complain loudly and often enough about contact to the referees do indeed tend to get at least a few more calls that they would not have gotten later in the game. And it’s true, the Nuggets, especially Iverson, were begging for calls over and over again. One of the many skills that Iverson has achieved over the years is the ability to complain to the refs about contact for which no foul was called, without getting into much risk of having a technical foul called on himself. If a referee comes into a game with the intention of “letting them play,” he will, nine times out of ten, break down to one extent or another from the endless sharp looks and caustic comments of Iverson about contact for which there was no foul call, until he is, at least to a limited extent, eating out of Iverson’s hand in the 2nd half, his original intent to “let them play” only a dim memory.

After the Nugget’s theft of this game, George Karl made a comically revealing comment: "I feel like a thief tonight. We weren't the better team, but we won. I'm happy we don't have to play them again. If we did, we would probably lose." Sportswriters are allowed to, and in fact should admit it if the team they are covering stole a win, but coaches should never be as blunt about it as Karl was here. After all, they are key agents of the team, and if the team was a thief, the Coach should be trying to hide the crime, not broadcast it. But the real gem part of this quote is where Karl says that the Nuggets would lose of they were to play the Wolves again. I already figured out that a loss is exactly what Karl always expects whenever the Nuggets play one of the top 6-7 teams of the West. Little did I know that Karl’s insecurities about his team are so great that he would forecast a loss to one of the worst teams in the League were they to play again. Karl revealed himself to be an incompetent thief and a Coach with a serious inferiority complex and lack of confidence problem all in the same comment.

We will continue with the George Karl Fiasco Story in the next game report. This game was too interesting to pass over without going into detail.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE

NUGGETS INJURIES AND OUT SICKS
Kenyon Martin: A staph infection.
Chucky Atkins: He was diagnosed with a right groin/abdominal strain (Sports Hernia) on 1/9 and underwent successful surgery on 1/11. He is expected to be sidelined a minimum of eight weeks.
Nene: He has taken an indefinite leave to have a tumor removed.

TIMBERWOLVES INJURIES AND OUT SICKS
Michael Doleac: Out due to the flu.
Randy Foye: Knee, out until at least late January.
Theo Ratliff: Knee, out until mid-February. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on Dec. 18 where a tear in the meniscus cartilage was found.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of January 20, 2008

The Nuggets are under an ORANGE ALERT, on account of the following problems.

INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS
1. Kenyon Martin illness 22 points
2. Chucky Atkins injury 18 points
3. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED PLAYER PERFORMANCE PROBLEMS
There are none at this time: 0 points.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver Coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

Yakhouba Diawara was partially benched: 2 points.

2. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 1-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points.

3. The Nuggets have extreme inconsistency and a truly excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a partial system on offense. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson reduces the damage. In broad terms, the team has failed to decide whether it wants Melo alone, Iverson alone, Melo and Iverson together, or neither of them to be firstly responsible for scoring enough points to keep the Nuggets in games. If it were neither, I call the name of that strategy the "share the wealth" strategy. More specifically, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and schemes: 7 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans sometime think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 63, which constitutes ORANGE ALERT.

ORANGE ALERT (55-74): Moderate damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under serious threat, and you can just about forget about beating quality teams. About 3/4 of all potential wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is much more difficult. About 1/2 of games against mid-level teams that would have been won will be lost under this alert. Even poor teams can often beat an otherwise good team that is under this alert. Close to 1/4 of games against low level teams that would have been won will be lost under this alert. A good team has been reduced to being a mid-level team, at best, when it is under this alert.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS
Injury and illness disaster has once again struck the Nuggets, with Kenyon Martin, Chucky Atkins, and Nene all out. The losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and then this very close call against the Wolves, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easily won had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would win normally. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Timberwolves 9
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 7 Timberwolves 8

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 21
Timberwolves Non-Starters Points: 20

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 7
Timberwolves Non-Starters Rebounds: 7

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 4
Timberwolves Non-Starters Assists: 3

This feature is under development, and it will be gradually expanded. The complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS FOR THIS GAME:
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. Many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 47.6 Season 41.2
Carmelo Anthony: Game 36.5 Season 38.0
Marcus Camby: Game 29.9 Season 33.5
Anthony Carter: Game 19.2 Season 21.0
Eduardo Najera: Game 18.3 Season 13.0
J.R. Smith: Game 17.5 Season 15.0
Linas Kleiza: Game 12.4 Season 18.6
Yakhouba Diawara: Game 3.0 Season 5.3

Kenyon Martin: Did Not Play-Illness
Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Injury
Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Von Wafer: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

TIMBERWOLVES PLAYER RATINGS
Al Jefferson: Game 43.8 Season 36.7
Ryan Gomes: Game 37.7 Season 19.5
Rashad McCants: Game 37.2 Season 22.0
Marko Jaric: Game 28.5 Season 18.3
Sebastian Telfair: Game 25.4 Season 19.1
Antoine Walker: Game 20.3 Season 14.0
Craig Smith: Game 7.7 Season 16.8
Corey Brewer: Game 2.2 Season 10.4
Greg Buckner: Game 1.6 Season 8.4

NOTE: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON RATINGS:
Both teams were almost entirely dependent on their starters, because none of the reserves had big games, although Najera for the Nuggets and Walker for the Wolves were somewhat above normal. The Wolves had six players above normal, while the Nuggets had only three. Gomes and McCants were way above normal for the Wolves, while Jefferson, Jaric, Telfair, and Walker were substantially above normal. For the Nuggets, no one was way above normal, and Iverson, Najera, and J.R. Smith were substantially above normal.

None of the Nuggets had an outright disaster for this game, which is fortunate, because even just one disaster would have been enough for the Wolves to win this game. Kleiza followed up his 61.4 rating in 42 minutes in the Magic game two nights earlier with a 12.4 rating in 37 minutes for this game. Reserve players are generally more inconsistent than starters, due to the difference in current playing time experience and due to skill differences, but this is a truly amazing drop-off. And Kleiza came very close to costing the Nuggets this game after being the hero of the last game. Basketball, like life, can sometimes be one extreme to another.

NUGGETS REAL PLAYER RATINGS—EXPLANATION
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real Per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.79 Rare Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance Plus-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Spectacular Performance-Star Plus
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Bad Game-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-TIMBERWOLVES REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Al Jefferson, Min 1.184
2. Ryan Gomes, Min 1.109
3. Allen Iverson, Den 1.107
4. Rashad McCants, Min 1.063
5. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.961
6. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.796
7. J.R. Smith, Den 0.795
8. Sebastian Telfair, Min 0.794
9. Antoine Walker, Min 0.781
10. Marko Jaric, Min 0.713
11. Marcus Camby, Den 0.712
12. Anthony Carter, Den 0.662
13. Yakhouba Diawara, Den 0.500…Diawara played only 6 minutes.
14. Craig Smith, Min 0.428
15. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.335
16. Corey Brewer, Min 0.275…Brewer played only 8 minutes.
17. Greg Buckner, Min 0.145

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
There were no star plus or superstar performances in this game. The Wolves had three stars, McCants, Gomes, and Jefferson, while the Nuggets had just one, Iverson. Carmelo Anthony was outstanding. J.R. Smith, with his .795, came back down to Earth for this game, but avoided going all the way to the bottom of the stack as he did in off games in December. This is a very good sign for those worrying that Smith might cost the Nuggets a game if Coach Karl allows him to play in upcoming games. A player has to have a real player rating below .600 before you can start to blame him for costing your team a game.

The Wolves had two players who probably did cost them this game, F-C Craig Smith, and G-F Greg Buckner. Brewer played only 8 minutes, so his affect on the outcome was extremely small. But Smith and Buckner were almost total non-factors in 17 and 11 minutes respectively. The Wolves starters and their reserves were like ships passing in the middle of the night, a lack of team balance trap the Nuggets have commonly fallen into often, though more so last year than this year so far. Smith, Brewer, and Buckner were -21, -14, and -11 on the plus-minus, respectively.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Eduardo Najera: +27
Allen Iverson: +11
J.R. Smith: +9
Yakhouba Diawara: +2
Marcus Camby: +1
Linas Kleiza: -8
Carmelo Anthony: -11
Anthony Carter: -16

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
Very, very rarely do you see a +27 or anything close to that in very close games, so Najera was definitely defending his man extremely well while he was out there. J.R. Smith has been working quite a bit harder on defense this year compared with last year. Some of his motivation, undoubtedly, is that he hopes to force Karl to play him in the playoffs. The sharp shooting Wolves were able to be most successful scoring the ball while Kleiza, Anthony, and especially Carter were out there.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Linas Kleiza played 37 minutes and was 3/10, 1/4 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 9 points, and he made 4 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal.

Yakhouba Diawara played 6 minutes and was 1/1 for 2 points.

Anthony Carter played 29 minutes and was 4/7 and 0/1 on 3’s for 8 points, and he made 5 assists, 3 rebounds, and 1 steal.

Marcus Camby played most of the game, 42 minutes, and was 4/11 and 4/5 from the line for 12 points, and he made 13 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 2 assists.

J.R. Smith played 22 minutes, and was 3/7, 1/4 on 3’s, and 4/4 from the line for 11 points, and he made 3 assists and 1 steal.

Eduardo Najera played 23 minutes and was 3/3 and 2/4 from the line for 8 points, and he made 7 rebounds, 1 block, and 1 assist.

Carmelo Anthony played 38 minutes and was 7/19, 0/1 on 3’s, and 12/14 from the line for 26 points, and he made 10 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal.

Allen Iverson played most of the game, 43 minutes, and was 11/26, 2/4 on 3’s, and 11/14 from the line for 35 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Monday, January 21 in Los Angeles to play the Lakers at 9:30 pm mountain time. Neither the Nuggets nor the Lakers will be playing on back to back nights.