The Nuggets Cruise Over the Hurting Nets 100-85, and Why George Karl Should Not Have Been Hired

What is the easiest type of game to win in the NBA? How about a game where your opponent is a losing team, is playing you on your home court, and is playing on back to back nights. If you can’t win that type of game at least 95% of the time, you are probably not a good team yourself. The Nuggets have enjoyed a good number of schedule softies like that this year, and they have won every single one of them, unless you want to count the recent theft of the Timberwolves game as an in effect loss.

The Nuggets had another of this easiest type of game to win and took care of business in Denver as they easily defeated the New Jersey Nets 100-85. Carmelo Anthony, Nene, and Chucky Atkins were all still out injured or sick, and the Nets had nobody out, but the “injury advantage” for the Nets was dwarfed by the talent, home court, and extra rest advantages enjoyed by the Nuggets. The Nets; non-starters outplayed the Nuggets’ non-starters, but the Nuggets’ starters vastly outplayed the Nets’ starters. Specifically, Linas Kleiza and Eduardo Najera were spectacular, or star-plus, according to their real player ratings, while the best two Nets, Antoine Wright and Jason Kidd, were outstanding but not quite good enough to be at the star level.

Najera and especially Kleiza have been the two biggest positive surprises for the Nuggets so far this season. Kleiza, a forward with some guard tendencies, a kind of unofficial guard-forward, has become an Iverson favorite. And why not, since Kleiza has taken after Iverson’s mix of midrange jumpers and attacking the rim scoring attempts. Klieiza was 3/8 on threes, 1/2 on 2-point jump shots, and 3/6 on layups and dunks, which is about as perfect a mix of shots as you will ever see.

Najera played after a one-game absence with a hyper extended right elbow. Like Kleiza, Najera had the right mix of shot types going too but, as usual, at a far lower number of shots taken. With Najera, when you think of mix, you think of the mix between his solid defending and his limited and cautious but efficient offense. In this game, Najera’s mix of defense first and offense second was lethal to the Nets, as the Nuggets outscored the Nets by 20 points in the mere 21 minutes that Najera was on the court. Quite honestly, if your team is destroyed by Najera, you have a lot of rebuilding to do, unless perhaps you were on the road, playing on a back to back, and having a rough year in general. The Nets have lost eight straight, their longest skid in more than three years, and dropped the first five games on a six-game road trip.

The Nets’ front office and coaches will have to determine whether those explanations, or excuses if you prefer, are big enough to justify having been dominated by Najera, who hasn’t dominated a team to this extent in about a year, and by Kleiza, who is young and talented but certainly not unstoppable. "We just didn't have the energy and they did," New Jersey coach Lawrence Frank said after the game. "They were much more aggressive and really attacked us in the paint." True, the Nuggets scored 44 points in the paint while the Nets scored 24 from there. The Nuggets also ramped up their fast break scoring against the road weary Nets. They scored 24 points off fast breaks while the Nets scored just 11.

The Nuggets came out of the block ready to rock and roll, and they played really tough defense, both zone and man to man, in the 1st half, which earned them a 47-31 lead at the half. The Nets missed 17 of their first 22 shots, and they committed 5 early turnovers as well, as they appeared quite honestly to have had little interest in getting into winning gear. Nets Coach Lawrence Frank, who is ranked 13/30 in win-loss percentage among current NBA coaches, was unable to have his team fully ready to compete in this game.

In the 2nd half, a couple of Nets’ comebacks fell short by about a half dozen points, and both of those comebacks were quickly put down by Nuggets runs. The Nets kept shooting themselves in the foot. They committed 20 turnovers and the Nuggets just 10. PG Kidd ended up with 5 turnovers, SF Richard Jefferson made 4 turnovers, and PG Marcus Williams made 4 as well.

At least the Nets were able to dominate in 3-point shooting, which is easy to do when you are playing the Nuggets, and being a little tired should not stop you from doing it. Jefferson made 4/6 threes, Vince Carter made 2/4, and the Nets overall made 10/19 or 52.9%. Other than Kleiza’s 3/8, it was the drought season for the Nuggets in 3-point shots, as they made just 5/23 of them overall, or 21.7%. I remind everyone right here that, while you can beat an East Conference lottery team in the circumstances already discussed with bad 3-point shooting, you can not hope to defeat any of the top half dozen teams of the West Conference.

The fact is, the Nets could theoretically have challenged the Nuggets for this game, what with Melo out, Iverson not at star level, and Camby playing way below his normal level. The Nuggets did not really play well on offense as a whole. Camby, Yakhouba Diawara, J.R. Smith, and Anthony Carter were a combined 4/28 for 15 points. The Nugget’s offense was limited to Kleiza, Najera, Iverson, and Martin. All the Nets had to do was work around Najera on offense and work on Kleiza and Iverson while on defense. But when you are really down and out, opportunities come and go and you don’t even realize you missed them. And there is no such thing as easy when you are down and out.

THE GEORGE KARL FIASCO PART 5
SUMMARY OF GEORGE KARL’S POSTSEASON RECORD

1984-85 CLE 1-3 Lost in the First Round
1985-86 CLE 0-0 Fired During the Regular Season
1986-87 GSW 4-6 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1987-88 GSW 0-0 Fired During the Regular Season
1988-89 Did Not Coach in the NBA
1989-90 Did Not Coach in the NBA except briefly as an Assistant Coach for the Jazz
1990-91 Did Not Coach in the NBA
1991-92 SEA 4–5 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1992-93 SEA 10-9 Lost in the Third Round (West Conference Finals)
1993-94 SEA 2-3 Lost in the First Round
1994-95 SEA 1-3 Lost in the First Round
1995-96 SEA 13-8 Lost in the Fourth Round (NBA Championship Series)
1996-97 SEA 6-6 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1997-98 SEA 4-6 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1998-99 MIL 0-3 Lost in the First Round
1999-00 MIL 2-3 Lost in the First Round
2000-01 MIL 10-8 Lost in the Third Round (East Conference Finals)
2001-02 MIL 0-0 Missed the Playoffs
2002-03 MIL 2-4 Lost in the First Round
2003-04 Did Not Coach in the NBA
2004-05 DEN 1-4 Lost in the First Round
2005-06 DEN 1-4 Lost in the First Round
2006-07 DEN 1-4 Lost in the First Round

Now let’s look at the results in detail. The team that Karl coached is in bold letters.

DETAIL OF GEORGE KARL’S POSTSEASON RECORD
1985
Boston 63-19 vs. Cleveland 36-46
Boston 3, Cleveland 1
Apr. 18: Thu., Cleveland 123 at Boston 126
Apr. 20: Sat., Cleveland 106 at Boston 108
Apr. 23: Tue., Boston 98 at Cleveland 105
Apr. 25: Thu., Boston 117 at Cleveland 115

1987
Utah 44-38 vs. Golden State 42-40
Golden State 3, Utah 2
Apr. 23: Thu., Golden State 85 at Utah 99
Apr. 25: Sat., Golden State 100 at Utah 103
Apr. 29: Wed., Utah 95 at Golden State 110
May 1: Fri., Utah 94 at Golden State 98
May 3: Sun., Golden State 118 at Utah 113

AND
Los Angeles Lakers 65-17 vs. Golden State 42-40
L.A. Lakers 4, Golden State 1
May 5: Tue., Golden State 116 at L.A. Lakers 125
May 7: Thu., Golden State 101 at L.A. Lakers 116
May 9: Sat., L.A. Lakers 133 at Golden State 108
May 10: Sun., L.A. Lakers 121 at Golden State 129
May 12: Tue., Golden State 106 at L.A. Lakers 118

1992
Golden State 55-27 vs. Seattle 47-35
Seattle 3, Golden State 1
Apr. 23: Thu., Seattle 117 at Golden State 109
Apr. 25: Sat., Seattle 101 at Golden State 115
Apr. 28: Tue., Golden State 128 at Seattle 129
Apr. 30: Thu., Golden State 116 at Seattle 119

AND
Utah 55-27 vs, Seattle 47-35
Utah 4, Seattle 1
May 6: Wed., Seattle 100 at Utah 108
May 8: Fri., Seattle 97 at Utah 103
May 10: Sun., Utah 98 at Seattle 104
May 12: Tue., Utah 89 at Seattle 83
May 14: Thu., Seattle 100 at Utah 111

1993
Seattle 55-27 vs. Utah 47-35
Seattle 3, Utah 2
Apr. 30: Fri., Utah 85 at Seattle 99
May 2: Sun., Utah 89 at Seattle 85
May 4: Tue., Seattle 80 at Utah 90
May 6: Thu., Seattle 93 at Utah 80
May 8: Sat., Utah 92 at Seattle 100

AND
Seattle 55-27 vs. Houston 55-27
Seattle 4, Houston 3
May 10: Mon., Houston 90 at Seattle 99
May 12: Wed., Houston 100 at Seattle 111
May 15: Sat., Seattle 79 at Houston 97
May 16: Sun., Seattle 92 at Houston 103
May 18: Tue., Houston 95 at Seattle 120
May 20: Thu., Seattle 90 at Houston 103
May 22: Sat., Houston 100 at Seattle 103

AND
Phoenix 62-20 vs. Seattle 55-27
Phoenix 4, Seattle 3
May 24: Mon., Seattle 91 at Phoenix 105
May 26: Wed., Seattle 103 at Phoenix 99
May 28: Fri., Phoenix 104 at Seattle 97
May 30: Sun., Phoenix 101 at Seattle 120
June 1: Tue., Seattle 114 at Phoenix 120
June 3: Thu., Phoenix 102 at Seattle 118
June 5: Sat., Seattle 110 at Phoenix 123

1994
Seattle 63-19 vs. Denver 42-40
Denver 3, Seattle 2
Apr. 28: Thu., Denver 82 at Seattle 106
Apr. 30: Sat., Denver 87 at Seattle 97
May 2: Mon., Seattle 93 at Denver 110
May 5: Thu., Seattle 85 at Denver 94
May 7: Sat., Denver 98 at Seattle 94

1995
Seattle 57-25 vs. Los Angeles Lakers 48-34
L.A. Lakers 3, Seattle 1
Apr. 27: Thu., L.A. Lakers 71 at Seattle 96
Apr. 29: Sat., L.A. Lakers 84 at Seattle 82
May 1: Mon., Seattle 101 at L.A. Lakers 105
May 4: Thu., Seattle 110 at L.A. Lakers 114

1996
Seattle 64-18 vs. Sacramento 39-43
Seattle 3, Sacramento 1
Apr. 26: Fri., Sacramento 85 at Seattle 97
Apr. 28: Sun., Sacramento 90 at Seattle 81
Apr. 30: Tue., Seattle 96 at Sacramento 89
May 2: Thu., Seattle 101 at Sacramento 87

AND
Seattle 64-19 vs. Houston 48-34
Seattle 4, Houston 0
May 4: Sat., Houston 75 at Seattle 108
May 6: Mon., Houston 101 at Seattle 105
May 10: Fri., Seattle 115 at Houston 112
May 12: Sun., Seattle 114 at Houston 107

AND
Seattle 64-18 vs. Utah 55-27
Seattle 4, Utah 3
May 18: Sat., Utah 72 at Seattle 102
May 20: Mon., Utah 87 at Seattle 91
May 24: Fri., Seattle 76 at Utah 96
May 26: Sun., Seattle 88 at Utah 86
May 28: Tue., Utah 98 at Seattle 95
May 30: Thu., Seattle 83 at Utah 118
June 2: Sun., Utah 86 at Seattle 90

AND
Chicago 72-10 vs. Seattle 64-18
Chicago 4, Seattle 2
June 5: Wed., Seattle 90 at Chicago 107
June 7: Fri., Seattle 88 at Chicago 92
June 9: Sun., Chicago 108 at Seattle 86
June 12: Wed., Chicago 86 at Seattle 107
June 14: Fri., Chicago 78 at Seattle 89
June 16: Sun., Seattle 75 at Chicago 87

1997
Seattle 57-25 vs. Phoenix 40-42
Seattle 3, Phoenix 2
Apr. 25: Fri., Phoenix 106 at Seattle 101
Apr. 27: Sun., Phoenix 78 at Seattle 122
Apr. 29: Tue., Seattle 103 at Phoenix 110
May 1: Thu., Seattle 122 at Phoenix 115
May 3: Sat., Phoenix 92 at Seattle 116

AND
Seattle 57-25 vs. Houston 57-25
Houston 4, Seattle 3
May 5: Mon., Seattle 102 at Houston 112
May 7: Wed., Seattle 106 at Houston 101
May 9: Fri., Houston 97 at Seattle 93
May 11: Sun., Houston 110 at Seattle 106
May 13: Tue., Seattle 100 at Houston 94
May 15: Thu., Houston 96 at Seattle 99
May 17: Sat., Seattle 91 at Houston 96

1998
Seattle 61-21 vs. Minnesota 45-37
Seattle 3, Minnesota 2
Apr. 24: Fri., Minnesota 83 at Seattle 108
Apr. 26: Sun., Minnesota 98 at Seattle 93
Apr. 28: Tue., Seattle 90 at Minnesota 98
Apr. 30: Thu., Seattle 92 at Minnesota 88
May 2: Sat., Minnesota 84 at Seattle 97

AND
Seattle 61-21 vs. Los Angeles Lakers 61-21
LA Lakers 4, Seattle 1
May 4: Mon., L.A. Lakers 92 at Seattle 106
May 6: Wed., L.A. Lakers 92 at Seattle 68
May 8: Fri., Seattle 103 at L.A. Lakers 119
May 10: Sun., Seattle 100 at L.A. Lakers 112
May 12: Tue., L.A. Lakers 110 at Seattle 95

1999
Indiana 33-17 vs. Milwaukee 28-22
Indiana 3, Milwaukee 0
May 9: Sun., at Indiana 110, Milwaukee 88
May 11: Tue., at Indiana 108, Milwaukee 107
May 13: Thu., Indiana 99, at Milwaukee 91

2000
Indiana 56-26 vs. Milwaukee 42-40
Indiana 3, Milwaukee 2
Apr. 23: Sun., Milwaukee 85 at Indiana 88
Apr. 27: Thu., Milwaukee 104 at Indiana 91
Apr. 29: Sat., Indiana 109 at Milwaukee 96
May 1: Mon., Indiana 87 at Milwaukee 100
May 4: Thu., Milwaukee 95 at Indiana 96

2001
Milwaukee 52-30 vs. Orlando 43-39
Milwaukee 3, Orlando 1
Apr. 22: Sun., Orlando 90 at Milwaukee 103
Apr. 25: Wed., Orlando 96 at Milwaukee 103
Apr. 28: Sat., Milwaukee 116 at Orlando 121
May 1: Tue., Milwaukee 112 at Orlando 104

AND
Milwaukee 52-30 vs. Charlotte 46-36
Milwaukee 4, Charlotte 3
May 6: Sun., Charlotte 92 at Milwaukee 104
May 8: Tue., Charlotte 90 at Milwaukee 91
May 10: Thu., Milwaukee 92 at Charlotte 102
May 13: Sun., Milwaukee 78 at Charlotte 85
May 15: Tue., Charlotte 94 at Milwaukee 86
May 17: Thu., Milwaukee 104 at Charlotte 97
May 20: Sun., Charlotte 95 at Milwaukee 104

AND
Philadelphia 56-26 vs. Milwaukee 52-30
Philadelphia 4, Milwaukee 3
May 22: Tue., Milwaukee 85 at Philadelphia 93
May 24: Thu., Milwaukee 92 at Philadelphia 78
May 26: Sat., Philadelphia 74 at Milwaukee 80
May 28: Mon., Philadelphia 89 at Milwaukee 83
May 30: Wed., Milwaukee 88 at Philadelphia 89
June 1: Fri., Philadelphia 100 at Milwaukee 110
June 3: Sun., Milwaukee 91 at Philadelphia 108

2003
New Jersey 49-33 vs. Milwaukee 42-40
New Jersey 4, Milwaukee 2
Apr. 19: Sat., Milwaukee 96 at New Jersey 109
Apr. 22: Tue., Milwaukee 88 at New Jersey 85
Apr. 24: Thur., New Jersey 103 at Milwaukee 101
Apr. 26: Sat., New Jersey 114 at Milwaukee 119
May 29: Tue., Milwaukee 82 at New Jersey 89
May 1: Thur., New Jersey 113 at Milwaukee 101

2005
San Antonio 59-23 vs. Denver 49-33
San Antonio 4 Denver 1
Game 1 April 24 San Antonio Spurs 87 Denver Nuggets 93
Game 2 April 27 San Antonio Spurs 104 Denver Nuggets 76
Game 3 April 30 Denver Nuggets 78 San Antonio Spurs 86
Game 4 May 2 Denver Nuggets 115 San Antonio Spurs 126
Game 5 May 4 San Antonio Spurs 99 Denver Nuggets 89

2006
Los Angeles Clippers 47-35 vs. Denver 44-38
Los Angeles Clippers 4 Denver 1
Game 1 April 22 Los Angeles Clippers 89 Denver Nuggets 87
Game 2 April 24 Los Angeles Clippers 98 Denver Nuggets 87
Game 3 April 27 Denver Nuggets 94 Los Angeles Clippers 87
Game 4 April 29 Denver Nuggets 86 Los Angeles Clippers 100
Game 5 May 1 Los Angeles Clippers 101 Denver Nuggets 83

2007
San Antonio 58-24 vs. Denver 45-37
San Antonio 4 Denver 1
Game 1 April 22 San Antonio Spurs 89 Denver Nuggets 95
Game 2 April 25 San Antonio Spurs 97 Denver Nuggets 88
Game 3 April 28 Denver Nuggets 91 San Antonio Spurs 96
Game 4 April 30 Denver Nuggets 89 San Antonio Spurs 96
Game 5 May 2 San Antonio Spurs 93 Denver Nuggets 78

Number of series where Karl’s team was favored and Karl’s team won: 8
Number of series where the other team was favored but Karl’s team won: 2
Number of series where Karl’s team was favored but the other team won: 2
Number of series where the other team was favored and the other team won: 12

Finally, let’s take a close look at the four upsets. In 1987, George Karl’s Warriors (42-40) scored a small upset playoff series win over the Utah Jazz (44-38) when they defeated the Jazz in Utah 118-113 in the 5th and deciding game of the series.

Then, in 1992, George Karl’s Supersonics (47-35) scored an upset playoff series win over the Golden State Warriors (55-27) 3 games to 1. Two of the 3 wins, though, were extremely close games, 1-point and 3-point wins.

In 1994, Karl’s most famous playoff failure occurred, in what is regarded by many as the biggest playoff upset/choke in the history of the NBA, though some would rank last year’s Warriors win over the Mavericks as just as or more historic. Karl’s Supersonics (63-19) were defeated by the Dikembe Mutombo and the Denver Nuggets (42-40) 3 games to 2, with the final game of the series being a thrilling and shocking overtime win for the Nuggets in Seattle. The Sonics were the 1st seed of the West, while the Nuggets were the 8th seed.

The next year, in 1995, there was another monumental Karl first round playoff failure, though it is much less famous than the one the prior year. In 1995, the Los Angeles Lakers (48-34) scored a major upset over Karl’s Supersonics (57-25) 3 games to 1. Although the win-loss gap between the two teams in the 1995 upset was less than in the 1994 upset, the Sonics managed to win only 1 game against the underdog Lakers.

In evaluating his record, we can analyze that Karl’s 1992 upset victory offsets his 1995 upset loss. His 1987 upset win, while coaching the Warriors, was just barely an upset, and worth very little weight in this review. So after these dispensations, you are left with that 1994 loss, which is, to repeat, one of the worst and probably the very worst playoff defeat in the history of the NBA. Even if Karl were to win a Championship, or one or two new upset playoff series wins, he would never be able to escape the “coach of the team with the worst playoff series loss in history” tag.

As we will see in Part 6, Karl has a poor win-loss postseason record compared with other current coaches. But this review shows that his poor record is due just as much to his having had a series of marginal teams in the playoffs, especially the Bucks and the Nuggets, as it is due to his actual failures in the playoffs, which could be reduced to that one whopper, losing to the 8th seed Nuggets as Coach of the 1st seed Sonics in 1994.

Overall, and ironically, Karl’s very poor reputation regarding postseason results among avid basketball fans is not entirely supported by the facts. The real truth is that, when you look carefully at Karl’s postseason record, you find that it is only slightly below par not counting the 1994 Nuggets-Sonics shocker. When that is included, his overall playoff record becomes modestly to moderately poor, depending on how much weight you want to put on the 1994 fiasco.

But moderately poor, modestly poor, or even average is just not good enough in professional sports. Whether you consider his record to be modestly poor or moderately poor, it is still not good enough if your objective is to break through to the highest level of the Western Conference, which is the highest level of pro basketball there is in the world. For that huge task, you need an above average in the postseason type of coach.

So although Karl’s postseason record is not as terrible as many including myself have imagined it to be, his record nonetheless reveals that he is almost certainly not the coach you want if you have difficult mountains to climb, but you are determined to climb them, and you have equipped yourself with one the most talented and expensive pro teams in the world with which to make the climb. Quite to the contrary, Karl would be your man if your objective was to tragically waste one of the most talented and expensive pro teams in the world, by not providing it with a Coach who would have all of the skills and abilities needed to perform at a high level in the postseason.

In part 6, you will see that there are a substantial number of coaches right now in the NBA who have shown above average ability in the postseason, so it is anything but impossible or extremely difficult to find and hire such a coach. It is difficult, and requires a huge amount of work, but the payoff for finding the right coach could be a Championship for a team like the Nuggets. Don’t dodge tough jobs if when they are completed a lot of other jobs become a lot easier.

The Nuggets thought they were playing it safe by hiring Karl, who had a good overall record and was already highly experienced at the time he was hired in January 2005. They thought his relatively low opinion of individual players as compared with the great game itself would be a counterweight to the volatile mix of stars they were bringing on to the team. Unfortunately, they overestimated the need for a counterweight to volatile personalities, and they also underestimated Karl’s tendency to penalize rather than teach. As Karl has gotten older, he has become more and more like a 19th century schoolteacher putting any youngster who acts up a little in the corner with a dunce cap. He has become more and more of a disciplinarian and less and less of a motivator and teacher.

The real truth is that the Nuggets’ organization was actually taking a big risk by hiring Karl, because they hired a Coach who has been mediocre at best in the postseason, which is obviously and certainly not appropriate if you have otherwise gone to great expense and great effort to fill out your roster with some extremely talented players, who are simply better than the vast majority of other players in the League. So it was not a safe or a wise choice at all. It was unwise, unsafe, and quite illogical in fact.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE

NUGGETS INJURIES AND OUT SICKS
Carmelo Anthony: Suffered a left ankle sprain at L.A. Lakers on 1/21
Chucky Atkins: He was diagnosed with a right groin/abdominal strain (Sports Hernia) on 1/9 and underwent successful surgery on 1/11. He is expected to be sidelined a minimum of eight weeks. Atkins is out until at least late March. With any luck, he will be back in the Nuggets lineup by early April.
Nene: underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on 1/14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He is out until at least late February, but could be out for the entire rest of the season.

NETS INJURIES AND OUT SICKS
No Injuries to report.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of January 26, 2008

The Nuggets are under a RED ALERT, on account of the following problems.

INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS
1. Carmelo Anthony injury 34 points
2. Chucky Atkins injury 18 points
3. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED PLAYER PERFORMANCE PROBLEMS
There are none at this time: 0 points.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.

No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.

2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver Coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.

J.R. Smith was partially benched: 2 points.

3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 1-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.

The bad use of reserves score for this game is 3 points. Najera should have played at least a half a quarter more.

4. The Nuggets have extreme inconsistency and a truly excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a partial system on offense. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson reduces the damage. In broad terms, the team has failed to decide whether it wants Melo alone, Iverson alone, Melo and Iverson together, or neither of them to be firstly responsible for scoring enough points to keep the Nuggets in games. If it were neither, I call the name of that strategy the "share the wealth" strategy. More specifically, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.

Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and schemes: 7 Points

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans sometime think it is.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 78, which constitutes RED ALERT.

RED ALERT (75-99): Serious damage to the season is occurring now. Beating quality teams is almost impossible. Beating mid-level teams is extremely difficult and will be unusual. About 3/4 of games against mid-level teams that would have been won will be lost if there is a RED ALERT. The result against low-level teams is on a case by case basis. Close to 1/2 of games against low level teams that would have been won will be lost under this alert. Essentially, a RED ALERT means that an otherwise good team has been reduced to being a poor or low level team.

The damage description assumes that Nuggets opponents are in a GREY ALERT or better status. When the Nuggets play teams that are in yellow alert or worse, the damage they suffer from being in a significant alert status will be substantially reduced. In other words, opponents who are themselves in significant alert situations will obviously be more beatable, even when the Nuggets are in a significant alert situation.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS
The Nuggets now have their first RED ALERT of the 2007-08 season. Injury and illness disaster has once again struck the Nuggets, with Carmelo Anthony, Chucky Atkins, and Nene all out. Anthony is likely to be back for the Sunday Jan. 27 game in Dallas versus the Mavericks, which will put the Nuggets back into the more manageable ORANGE ALERT status for that game. However, both Atkins and Nene are definitely going to be out for many weeks, and either one of them or both of them could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. And George Karl is definitely not going to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon. Therefore, the Nuggets, unless they make a trade and/or acquire a diamond in the rough player, are doomed to be in ORANGE ALERT or YELLOW ALERT for the rest of the season, which endangers their chances of making the playoffs. Hollinger at ESPN has the odds that the Nuggets will make the playoffs at almost exactly 50% right now. And those odds do not factor in the indefinite unavailability of Nene and Atkins.

The recent losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT or RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Nets 9
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Nets 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 17
Nets Non-Starters Points: 25

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 12
Nets Non-Starters Rebounds: 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 3
Nets Non-Starters Assists: 8

Karl was forced to play Smith due to the three key injuries the Nuggets have right now. Even so, the injury free Nets had a 1 player advantage. The Nets’ non-starters did better in scoring and especially in assisting than did the Nuggets’ non-starters. In rebounding, the Nugget’s non-starters were a little better.

The reserve watch feature is under development, and it will be gradually expanded. The complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
2: He's making a run for the exits

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. Many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 41.1 Season 41.2
Linas Kleiza: Game 40.9 Season 20.1
Kenyon Martin: Game 29.6 Season 20.8
Eduardo Najera: Game 28.9 Season 13.7
Marcus Camby: Game 22.8 Season 32.9
Anthony Carter: Game 20.9 Season 21.9
J.R. Smith: Game 4.2 Season 13.9
Yakhouba Diawara: Game 1.1 Season 5.5

Carmelo Anthony: Did Not Play-Injury
Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Injury
Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Von Wafer: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

NETS PLAYER RATINGS
Jason Kidd: Game 40.0 Season 32.6
Josh Boone: Game 27.9 Season 15.7
Vince Carter: Game 26.0 Season 33.8
Antoine Wright: Game 26.0 Season 13.5
Richard Jefferson: Game 23.7 Season 33.2
Malik Allen: Game 10.9 Season 10.3
Darrell Armstrong: Game 6.1 Season 4.6
Marcus Williams: Game 1.5 Season 5.9
Sean Williams: Game 1.3 Season 16.4
Jason Collins: Game -0.6 Season 3.9

NOTE: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE RATINGS:
Allen Iverson has given a lot of respect to Linas Kleiza for about a year now, which would be most of the time Iverson has been a Nugget. The Iverson to Kleiza for a score and, to a lesser extent, the Kleiza to Iverson for a score, have become two of the Nugget’s most productive plays.

Najera had a monster game. Martin’s real rating is probably close to 30, and this was another game where he is moving in the direction of actually achieving that, following his long time away due to knee surgery.

Marcus Camby had what is for him a relatively poor game, for the first time in many moons. J.R. Smith blew an opportunity to shine in relatively substantial playing time, which he gets only once in a while under Karl.

Jason Kidd led the Nets. Josh Boone and Antoine Wright were both way above their normal performance level. However, both Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson were not as productive as usual for the Nets. Since these two and Kidd are the most important players for the Nets by far, the simultaneous off games from both Carter and Jefferson was very damaging to the Nets’ chances in this game.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real Per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.79 Rare Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance Plus-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Spectacular Performance-Star Plus
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Bad Game-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-NETS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Eduardo Najera, Den 1.376
2. Linas Kleiza, Den 1.319
3. Antoine Wright, NJ 1.040
4. Jason Kidd, NJ 1.000
5. Allen Iverson, Den 0.956
6. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.822
7. Josh Boone, NJ 0.821
8. Malik Allen, NJ 0.681
9. Vince Carter, NJ 0.634
10. Darrell Armstrong, NJ 0.610
11. Marcus Camby, Den 0.600
12. Richard Jefferson, NJ 0.539
13. Anthony Carter, Den 0.536
14. J.R. Smith, Den 0.191
15. Marcus Williams, NJ 0.150
16. Yakhouba Diawara, Den 0.100
17. Sean Williams, NJ 0.087
18. Jason Collins, NJ -0.120…Collins played only 5 minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Eduardo Najera has come alive this season relative to last season, and has been living up to his billing as a good defensive player who can score if he really puts his mind to it. Najera and the Lithuanian star Linas Kleiza were by far the best players on the court in this game; both of these Nuggets were star-plus. The Nets had no stars and only two outstanding players, Antoine Wright and Jason Kidd. Since Iverson was also outstanding for the Nuggets, the Nuggets had 3 players who were outstanding or better, whereas the Nets had just the two.

Both Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson were major disappointments for the Nets. For the Nuggets, Marcus Camby was by far the big disappointment. Carter and especially J.R. Smith are well known to be inconsistent, so they were not as disappointing in the relative sense.

The biggest disappointment among all players who played was Sean Williams of the Nets. The other Williams, Marcus Williams, was also a no-show, and those two players with the same last name ended any chance that the Nets could upset the Nuggets in this game.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Eduardo Najera: +20
Anthony Carter: +15
Kenyon Martin: +13
Allen Iverson: +11
J.R. Smith: +7
Yakhouba Diawara: +6
Linas Kleiza: +3
Marcus Camby: +0

OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
This reinforces what I already reported, that Najera had a real gem of a game against the Nets. Anthony Carter’s high score suggests that those who think he has intangible value beyond his production may be correct, at least in this game. Martin and Iverson were also able to do serious damage to the Nets in this game.

Although J.R. Smith and Yakhouba Diawara were a no shows, at least they had modestly positive plus-minuses. The Nets did well while Kleiza was in there, but it sure wasn’t due to Kleiza himself. Camby was the only player that the Nets were able to take advantage of to any extent.

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Yakhouba Diawara played 11 minutes and was 0/3, 0/2 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 2 points, and he made 1 rebound.

J.R. Smith played 22 minutes and was 1/7, 0/5 on 3’s, and 1/2 from the line for 3 points, and he made 3 assists and 2 rebounds.

Anthony Carter played 39 minutes and was 1/8, 0/3 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 4 points, and he made 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block.

Marcus Camby played 38 minutes and was 2/10 and 2/4 from the line for 6 points, and he made 14 rebounds, 4 blocks, 2 steals, and 1 assist.

Kenyon Martin played 36 minutes and was 8/15 and 4/8 from the line for 20 points, and he made 7 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 1 steal.

Allen Iverson played most of the game, 43 minutes, and was 8/21, 1/3 on 3’s, and 13/15 from the line for 30 points, and he made 5 assists, 3 steals, and 2 rebounds.

Linas Kleiza played 31 minutes and was 7/16, 3/8 on 3’s, and 6/6 from the line for 23 points, and he made 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block.

Eduardo Najera played 21 minutes and was 4/6, 1/2 on 3’s, and 3/4 from the line for 12 points, and he made 9 rebounds and 5 steals.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Sunday, January 27 in Dallas to play the Mavericks at 6 pm mountain time. Neither the Mavericks nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights.